New York, Feb 4, 2026, 21:28 EST — Market closed.
- Confluent shares ended 0.4% lower at $30.33, staying just shy of IBM’s cash offer
- Shareholder demand letters, lawsuits in New York, and new merger disclosures all appeared in a recent SEC filing
- Investors are focused on results due after the close on Feb. 11 and the shareholder vote scheduled for Feb. 12
Confluent, Inc. shares dropped 0.4% Wednesday, ending the day at $30.33. The data-streaming software company has stepped up disclosures about its planned sale to IBM, facing ongoing shareholder lawsuits. The stock still lags behind IBM’s $31-per-share cash bid.
The key factor now is timing. The shareholder vote is scheduled for next week, and Confluent’s trading has settled into a pattern focused more on the likelihood of the deal closing than on quarterly results.
Merger investors track the “spread”—the difference between the stock price and the offer price—to gauge if a deal is holding up. A wider spread often signals the market is factoring in potential delays, added conditions, or even the risk the deal might fall through.
On Feb. 4, Confluent disclosed it had received 17 demand letters and is facing two New York state court complaints alleging its merger proxy misled investors or omitted key information. The company denied any wrongdoing but said it would provide supplemental disclosures “without admitting any liability or wrongdoing.” These updates will include more detail on Morgan Stanley’s valuation analysis and selected precedent deal multiples, referencing transactions like IBM’s HashiCorp acquisition and Cisco’s purchase of Splunk. (SEC)
“Deal disclosure” battles frequently pop up during U.S. takeovers, especially right before a vote. Usually, companies opt to provide extra details instead of dragging out litigation as the closing date nears.
IBM framed the deal as a key step in building AI-focused data infrastructure for enterprise software. “With the acquisition of Confluent, IBM will provide the smart data platform for enterprise IT, purpose-built for AI,” said IBM CEO Arvind Krishna when the announcement came out. (IBM Newsroom)
Confluent announced a special shareholder meeting set for Feb. 12 at 9:00 a.m. Pacific time, to take place online. Investors will vote on the adoption of the merger agreement. (SEC)
Confluent ended Wednesday trading around 67 cents shy of the offer price, marking close to a 2% discount. It’s a modest gap, yet it reflects the market’s assessment of risk and the wait ahead.
Timing is the obvious risk. Courts might require additional disclosures, proxy battles could stretch out, and regulators may delay approvals. If the deal falls through, the stock loses its $31 cash cushion.
Confluent is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results after U.S. markets close on Feb. 11. However, the company won’t hold an earnings call or provide a financial outlook, citing the pending IBM deal. (Business Wire)
Next up is the Feb. 12 vote, along with any last-minute proxy updates or court filings that could surface before the finish line.
