New York, February 4, 2026, 21:26 EST — The market has closed.
SoFi Technologies (SOFI.O) shares dropped 4.6% on Wednesday, ending the day at $20.75 after hitting a low of $20.07. The stock has slipped about 9% since closing on January 30, with around 85 million shares changing hands Wednesday.
The Nasdaq fell 1.5% in a sluggish day for growth stocks as investors trimmed their tech holdings. The S&P 500 also edged lower, slipping 0.5%.
SoFi kept feeling the heat from sellers despite JPMorgan’s upgrade the day before. Analyst Reginald Smith bumped the rating up to “Overweight” from “Neutral,” maintaining a $31 price target. He noted, “Momentum in the business is undeniable.” Finviz
SoFi has tracked the same volatile pattern seen across fintech stocks this week. Morgan Stanley upgraded buy-now-pay-later player Affirm, while analysts highlighted the growing divide between top performers and laggards in the space. J.P. Morgan’s note drew attention to SoFi’s member and deposit gains, contrasting them with peers like PayPal, which has encountered its own growth challenges.
The company’s latest guidance remains the key focus. In its Q4 report, SoFi projected adjusted net revenue for 2026 at around $4.655 billion, with adjusted EBITDA near $1.6 billion—suggesting an EBITDA margin close to 34%. (EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization.) For Q1, SoFi expects adjusted net revenue of about $1.04 billion and adjusted EBITDA around $300 million.
Investors digested a fresh insider move. Chief Risk Officer Arun Pinto entered a prepaid variable forward contract, collecting $1.2 million upfront while pledging 71,500 shares. The deal includes a floor around $19.01 and a cap near $36.10. This type of contract lets executives borrow against or hedge their stock now, with future share delivery tied to price fluctuations.
SoFi is betting that a bigger chunk of fee-based revenue will help shield it from interest rate volatility. Fee-based revenue jumped 53% in Q4, the company said, while total loan originations set a new high at $10.5 billion. CEO Anthony Noto also warned that a proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates might drive borrowers toward personal loans. “I would expect a meaningful contraction in credit card lending,” he told Reuters.
Downside risks remain. Should the job market weaken more quickly than anticipated, credit losses might climb and personal-loan growth could stall, squeezing SoFi’s ability to invest in growth while maintaining margin gains.
With markets closed, focus shifts to interest rates and upcoming U.S. economic data. The Labor Department moved January’s jobs report to Wednesday, February 11, and rescheduled the January CPI release for Friday, February 13, following the recent government shutdown. The delayed JOLTS report is set for Thursday.
Thursday’s action will hinge on whether SOFI holds above $20 and if other firms echo JPMorgan’s research. Still, broader macro factors might have a stronger pull than any single company update.
