New York, February 5, 2026, 15:32 EST — Regular session
- Confluent shares barely moved as investors sifted through a new SEC filing tied to a merger
- The stock was trading roughly 2% under IBM’s $31-per-share cash bid
- Traders are focused on the shareholder vote set for Feb. 12 and Confluent’s earnings report due Feb. 11
Confluent shares nudged 0.1% higher to $30.37 Thursday afternoon following the company’s update on shareholder litigation connected to its upcoming IBM acquisition. The stock fluctuated between $30.35 and $30.56, with about 58 million shares traded.
This filing is significant as Confluent’s shares hover just below the deal price. Even slight shifts in the likelihood or timing of the takeover can nudge that gap. The spread—the gap between IBM’s bid and Confluent’s current trading level—is a straightforward measure merger-arbitrage investors rely on to assess closing risk.
It’s a tough day for tech overall. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF dropped nearly 4.7%. The Nasdaq-100-focused Invesco QQQ slipped around 1.3%, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF slipped about 1.2%. That’s part of why a stock tied to a deal can seem more stable than others in the group.
IBM has agreed to acquire Confluent at $31 per share in cash, putting the deal’s enterprise value at $11 billion, the companies announced in December. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said the deal will enable customers to “deploy generative and agentic AI better and faster” by enhancing trusted data flow across systems. The transaction is expected to close by mid-2026, with Confluent shareholders controlling about 62% of voting power already backing the deal. (IBM Newsroom)
On Wednesday, Confluent revealed it had received 17 demand letters from alleged shareholders claiming the merger proxy statement contained material misstatements or omissions. Additionally, two lawsuits were filed in New York state court back in January. Although Confluent maintains its disclosures meet legal standards, it opted to provide supplemental disclosures “solely to moot” the claims and cut down on litigation costs and uncertainty—without admitting any fault. The company also scheduled the shareholder meeting for Feb. 12 at 9 a.m. Pacific time, to be held via live webcast.
Confluent shares are trading at $30.37, about 63 cents shy of the $31 offer price—a discount near 2%. Investors must balance the time value of money against potential delays. Typically, this spread widens if the deal timeline slips and narrows once approvals come through.
Confluent plans to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year results after U.S. markets close on Feb. 11. The company, however, won’t hold an earnings call or provide financial guidance, citing the pending IBM deal, it said last month. (Nasdaq)
The deal isn’t guaranteed. Delays in shareholder approval, regulatory hurdles, or a spike in litigation risk could stretch the timeline. If the transaction falls apart, Confluent shares might swiftly adjust, reflecting stand-alone growth prospects and software-sector trends.
Traders are focused on two upcoming dates: Confluent’s earnings report after the close on Feb. 11 and the shareholder vote set for Feb. 12. That vote will decide if IBM can meet a crucial hurdle to completing the acquisition.
