NEW YORK, February 4, 2026, 15:32 EST — Regular session
Confluent, Inc. shares edged down 0.1% to $30.42 in Wednesday afternoon trading, fluctuating within a narrow band as the company awaits its upcoming sale to IBM. The stock traded between $30.28 and $30.50, still under the $31-per-share cash offer outlined in the merger deal.
The calendar is taking over. Confluent plans to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results after U.S. markets close on February 11. However, it won’t hold an earnings call or offer a financial outlook as long as the IBM deal remains unresolved.
Shareholders will vote on the deal during a virtual special meeting set for February 12, according to the definitive proxy statement.
Merger-arbitrage traders watch the spread between the stock and offer price closely. Confluent’s shares trade at $30.42, roughly 58 cents—or about 2%—below the cash offer. That discount factors in both the waiting period and the risk of a delayed closing.
A January filing revealed the U.S. antitrust waiting period under the Hart‑Scott‑Rodino Act ended at 11:59 p.m. ET on January 12. That hurdle is cleared, but the deal still faces further regulatory scrutiny and a shareholder vote before closing.
IBM and Confluent revealed their all-cash deal back in December, pegging the price at $11 billion. The acquisition is expected to wrap up by mid-2026. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna called it a move toward a “smart data platform for enterprise IT, purpose-built for AI.” Confluent CEO Jay Kreps said he’s “excited by the potential to join IBM.” IBM Newsroom
Confluent offers data-streaming software that enables real-time data transfer between applications, typically centered on the open-source Apache Kafka project. The acquisition is still pending shareholder approval, regulatory sign-offs, and other standard closing requirements.
Trading surged as the dates approached. Robinhood data revealed volume hitting roughly 53 million shares, compared to an average near 12 million.
The stock barely moved over the past two sessions, closing at $30.54 on February 2 and $30.45 on February 3, according to Confluent’s investor relations data. With such limited fluctuation, any delay could quickly deepen the discount.
The risk scenario is clear: any delays, regulatory hurdles, or a surprise at the shareholder meeting might drive CFLT further away from the offer price. Traders are focused on the February 11 earnings release, followed by the February 12 vote, for clues on the timeline.
