New York, March 2, 2026, 13:58 (EST) — Regular session
- ConocoPhillips shares moved higher, tracking gains in crude prices after fresh concerns over Middle East supply and shipping risks lifted the market.
- Tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz are now what analysts are watching as the next key swing for prices.
- Coming up: U.S. weekly crude inventory numbers due March 4
ConocoPhillips picked up 2.6% to trade at $116.38 early in the afternoon, matching the upswing seen among U.S. oil producers. Exxon Mobil tacked on 1.2%, Chevron was up 1.1%, and Occidental Petroleum moved 1.3% higher.
The surge in oil came after Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran triggered retaliatory strikes from Tehran, knocking out some Middle East supply and snarling shipping routes. Brent crude futures jumped 6.75% to $77.79 a barrel by late morning in New York, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) up 5.77% at $70.89. “The near-term result is likely to be heightened volatility in global energy markets,” said Kenny Zhu, research analyst at Global X. Reuters
Oil prices are likely to remain high, with markets zeroed in on tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz—where over a fifth of the world’s oil passes daily. Citi is looking for Brent to hold somewhere between $80 and $90 a barrel in the next week. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, has tagged a real-time “risk premium” of $18 a barrel, chalking it up to disruption fears. “The world could handle the Strait of Hormuz being shut in for one or two weeks,” said Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie Group, but he cautioned that the situation could worsen quickly if it lasts longer. Reuters
Tightness isn’t confined to crude. Asia’s premiums for jet fuel and diesel have surged to levels not seen in years, according to traders. “For jet fuel, if flows from Strait of Hormuz are reduced, Europe will have to pull more from the SG straits and NE Asia,” said Ivan Mathews, who heads APAC analysis at Vortexa. Reuters
ConocoPhillips, a major upstream producer that drills and pumps oil and gas, has a reputation for trading in step with crude prices. Swift moves in benchmark prices usually have investors scrambling to adjust for the immediate impact on cash flow—questions can wait.
The company has a quarterly dividend of $0.84 per share lined up for payment this Monday, its dividend history shows.
ConocoPhillips, in its Feb. 5 results update, pegged 2026 capital spending around $12 billion and set adjusted operating costs at $10.2 billion. The company also said it expects to return 45% of this year’s cash from operations to shareholders.
The trade isn’t one-sided. Barclays sounded the alarm, writing, “Oil markets might have to face their worst fears on Monday.” Over at Wood Mackenzie, Alan Gelder zeroed in on what comes next: “The key question is when do vessels re-establish export flows.” Patrick De Haan, who leads petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, cut through the chatter: “don’t mistake volatility for runaway prices. Volatility isn’t the same as a shortage.” The Washington Post
COP traders are watching two main threads right now: Gulf headlines and concrete supply numbers. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s inventory release on Wednesday, March 4, is the next set marker, but so far, tanker traffic through Hormuz is setting the tone.
