Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) ended Monday, December 8, 2025, with another modest pullback as investors weighed strong sales, a high valuation, a new lawsuit against the Trump administration over tariffs, and growing chatter about whether a special dividend is likely when the company reports earnings on December 11.
The stock slipped during the regular session and barely budged after the bell, but the news flow around Costco got busier — and that’s what really matters heading into the opening bell on Tuesday, December 9.
Quick takeaways before Tuesday’s open
- Price action: COST closed Monday at $887.52, down 0.8% on the day, with a trading range of roughly $883–$895 and volume around 2.4 million shares. [1]
- After-hours: In extended trading, the stock hovered just below the close at about $886.9, a tiny additional loss of around 0.07%, on relatively light after-hours volume. [2]
- Fundamentals still strong: November net sales rose 8.1% year-over-year to $23.64 billion, with comparable sales up 6.9% and digitally enabled sales growing in the mid-teens. [3]
- New overhang: Costco is suing the Trump administration to secure potential refunds on emergency tariffs, tying the stock to a major Supreme Court case on presidential trade powers. [4]
- Street view: Analysts still rate Costco a “Moderate Buy” with average price targets clustered around $1,025–$1,070, implying mid‑teens upside from Monday’s close, but they consistently flag its premium valuation. [5]
- Catalyst watch: Q1 FY2026 earnings arrive after the close on Thursday, December 11, with consensus calling for roughly $4.24 EPS on about $67 billion in revenue, plus heavy speculation (but low odds) of another special dividend. [6]
1. How Costco stock traded on December 8, 2025
On Monday, Costco shares opened around $893.50, slipped through the day, and settled at $887.52, marking a 0.8% decline versus Friday’s close. The intraday low was just under $883, while the high sat just below $895, showing a fairly tight range. Volume of roughly 2.4 million shares was a bit above typical levels. [7]
In the after-hours session, MarketWatch data shows COST trading near $886.89 as of about 6:00 p.m. ET, down another hair from the close and suggesting no major new company‑specific bombshells after the bell. [8]
Zooming out:
- FinanceCharts pegs Costco’s 52‑week range at $871.71 to $1,078.23, putting Monday’s close closer to the bottom of that band than the top.
- Trailing P/E is ~48–49, with a forward P/E around 45–46, and the stock carries a market cap near $390 billion. [9]
- Over the last 12 months, total return is slightly negative, but Costco has still delivered about 92% total return over three years and nearly 150% over five years, far outpacing many peers. [10]
According to 24/7 Wall St.’s December price‑prediction piece, COST has lost about 4.8% over the past month and is down roughly 1.5–2% year‑to‑date, despite its long‑term outperformance. [11] That backdrop helps explain why even solid operating results aren’t automatically sending the stock higher right now.
2. Fundamental backdrop: November sales are solid, not spectacular
The core business is still humming.
In its November sales release, Costco reported: [12]
- Net sales: $23.64 billion, up 8.1% from $21.87 billion a year earlier.
- Comparable sales (headline):
- U.S.: +6.0%
- Canada: +6.9%
- Other international: +11.4%
- Total company: +6.9%
- Comparable sales ex‑gas & FX: Total company +6.4%, with U.S. +5.8% and international comps even higher.
- Digitally enabled sales: Around 16–17% growth, underlining the traction of its online channel.
For the 12‑week first quarter ended November 23, net sales came in at $65.98 billion, up 8.2%, and 13‑week sales were $71.97 billion, also up 8.2% year‑over‑year. [13]
Retail trade outlet HomePage News, which covered the November figures on December 8, highlighted 3% U.S. traffic growth, mid‑single‑digit growth in non‑food categories like jewelry and tires, and mid‑to‑high‑single‑digit growth in food and fresh categories — all while digitally enabled sales jumped more than 16%. [14]
Zacks, via Nasdaq, described Costco’s Q1 sales trends as offering a supportive backdrop for the holiday season, but also pointed out that the stock trades on a forward P/E in the low‑40s, versus about 30x for its industry group, underlining the valuation premium investors must pay for that quality. [15]
Bottom line: Operationally, Costco keeps grinding out high‑single‑digit sales growth with strong comps and double‑digit digital growth. The pressure on the share price is less about the business stumbling and more about expectations and valuation.
3. New wild card: Costco’s tariff lawsuit against the Trump administration
One of the biggest new storylines around Costco — and a key thing to understand before Tuesday’s open — is legal, not operational.
In early December, Costco filed a federal lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade challenging emergency tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump on imports from China, Mexico, Canada and other countries. [16]
Key points from multiple reports (The Guardian, Investopedia, Supply Chain Dive and others): [17]
- The suit targets tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), arguing that using emergency powers in this way oversteps presidential authority.
- Costco says it has paid significant duties under these tariffs and now risks losing the ability to reclaim those payments as deadlines approach for Customs and Border Protection to “liquidate” (finalize) import entries.
- The company is seeking:
- A halt to the finalization of those tariffs on its imports,
- A ruling that the tariffs are unlawful, and
- A full refund of duties already paid if, as many expect, the Supreme Court rules that a large share of these tariffs exceeded the president’s authority.
- Legal commentary from firms such as Norton Rose Fulbright notes that Costco’s case could spur a wave of similar suits from other import‑heavy companies if the Supreme Court invalidates parts of the tariff regime. [18]
For investors, this lawsuit cuts both ways:
- Upside scenario: A favorable ruling plus a Supreme Court decision against the tariffs could mean meaningful one‑time refunds and lower ongoing import costs, supporting margins.
- Downside / uncertainty: The litigation ties Costco’s outlook to politically charged, unpredictable court decisions. Headlines around the Supreme Court’s Learning Resources v. Trump case, which tackles the same IEEPA questions, may cause sudden moves in COST unrelated to day‑to‑day sales trends. [19]
Heading into Tuesday’s open, traders are watching for any new commentary or leaks around these cases. Even if Monday’s after‑hours trade was calm, this legal overhang is now part of the Costco narrative.
4. Governance and geopolitics: Gina Raimondo’s nomination to the board
Adding to the macro flavor of the story, Costco has nominated Gina Raimondo, former U.S. Secretary of Commerce (2021–2025) and former governor of Rhode Island, to its Board of Directors. [20]
According to the company’s December 4 GlobeNewswire release and follow‑up coverage:
- Raimondo’s nomination will be voted on at Costco’s January 15, 2026 shareholder meeting. [21]
- She brings deep experience in global trade, economic policy and national security, plus a background in venture capital.
- Board chair Hamilton “Tony” James emphasized that her mix of global business and government experience will “add an important dimension” to Costco’s boardroom skill set. [22]
On its face, this is a classic blue‑chip governance move: bringing a high‑profile policy expert onto the board of a company with heavy international sourcing and ambitious global expansion plans. In the current context, though, it also signals seriousness about navigating trade policy — and, by extension, the tariff court fight.
Investors heading into Tuesday’s open should recognize that Costco is now leaning into its identity as a global player entangled with Washington, not stepping back from it.
5. What Wall Street is saying after December 8
Despite the recent pullback, analyst sentiment remains broadly positive, though with a consistent warning label: the stock is expensive.
Ratings and targets
- MarketBeat reports that 19 analysts rate COST a Buy and 13 rate it Hold, for an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average price target of about $1,027.75. [23]
- StockAnalysis aggregates 24 analysts and arrives at a 12‑month target around $1,071, with a consensus Buy rating and implied upside of roughly 20% from Monday’s close. [24]
- SimplyWall.St estimates a “fair value” near $1,056 per share, suggesting mid‑teens upside, but points out that Costco trades around 49x earnings versus an industry average near 22x, and that its P/E multiple is well above what their own discounted‑cash‑flow model would justify. [25]
Zacks and 24/7 Wall St. also focus heavily on valuation:
- Zacks notes a forward P/E in the mid‑40s compared with an industry multiple just above 30, concluding that investors are still paying a sizable quality premium. [26]
- 24/7 Wall St. points out that after a 39% gain in 2024, Costco entered 2025 with a P/E above 50, and that December’s pullback leaves shares down more than 2% for the year while the S&P 500 is up double digits — one of the worst relative showings for Costco versus the index in decades. [27]
Flows and ownership
Recent 13F headlines out on December 8 show institutional investors actively reshuffling positions:
- Bank of Nova Scotia increased its Costco stake by 48.2% in Q2, now holding just over 208,000 shares (about $206 million at the time of filing). [28]
- SVB Wealth LLC, by contrast, trimmed its stake by about 20%, selling nearly 4,000 shares and retaining roughly 15,600 shares. [29]
Both pieces highlight that around 68–69% of Costco’s float is held by institutions and that insiders have sold roughly 9,700 shares (~$9 million) in recent months, leaving corporate insiders with about 0.18% ownership. [30]
Takeaway: The Street still likes Costco, but not uncritically. Consensus calls for mid‑teens upside from here, but nearly every serious analysis stresses that the margin for error is thin at these multiples.
6. Short‑term technical picture and quantitative forecasts
From a purely technical standpoint, the setup going into December 9 looks cautious rather than catastrophic.
- FinanceCharts pegs Costco’s trailing P/E at about 48.7, forward P/E at 45.9, with a dividend yield around 0.59% and TTM net margin just under 3% — classic “quality staple at a growth multiple” territory. [31]
- The shares have delivered ~92% total return over three years, but are down almost 10% on a trailing 12‑month total‑return basis, suggesting investors have already been digesting multiple compression. [32]
Algorithmic technical service StockInvest.us, updating for the December 8 close, describes COST as: [33]
- Having been a “sell candidate” since December 4,
- Trading in a falling short‑term trend channel,
- With a modelled expectation of roughly 5–6% downside over the next three months, into a band they estimate around the low‑ to mid‑$800s,
- But also showing some positive signals like a recent pivot‑bottom and a bullish three‑month MACD, which could limit the depth of any near‑term pullback.
In plain English: short‑term quants are cautious, but they’re not calling for a collapse — more a grindy, volatile range unless a new catalyst (good or bad) hits.
7. Earnings and dividend chatter: December 11 in focus
The next scheduled big catalyst is Q1 FY2026 earnings, due after the close on Thursday, December 11:
- MarketBeat cites consensus EPS of about $4.24 on roughly $67.0 billion in revenue for the quarter, implying about 11% EPS growth and ~8% revenue growth versus last year. [34]
On December 8, 24/7 Wall St. ran a widely shared piece asking “Will Costco Announce a Special Dividend on Dec. 11?” The article notes: [35]
- COST is having a rare off year versus the index,
- Comparable‑store sales growth has slowed from prior peaks, and
- Historically, Costco’s big special dividends (2012, 2015, 2017, 2020 and 2023) tended to come during periods of above‑average stock performance and more robust comps.
The author’s conclusion: a special dividend this week is possible but unlikely, given softer comps and a stock that’s treading water rather than breaking out, even though Costco’s balance sheet and cash pile would give it the capacity to do one.
For Tuesday’s session and beyond, that means:
- Any pre‑earnings hint about capital allocation — special dividend, buyback tweaks, or another fee hike down the road — could quickly change sentiment.
- Traders may begin positioning around that binary: no special dividend likely keeps focus on earnings quality and guidance, while even a whiff of an extra payout could trigger buying interest at current levels.
8. What to watch before the bell on December 9, 2025
Putting it all together, here are the key things to know and watch as markets prepare to open on Tuesday:
1. Legal headlines on tariffs
Any fresh reporting on Costco’s tariff refund lawsuit or on the Supreme Court’s pending decision about the legality of Trump‑era emergency tariffs could move the stock independently of fundamental news. [36]
- A sense that refunds are more likely or closer in time would be a tailwind for sentiment.
- A signal that the Court might uphold the tariffs, or that Costco could miss refund deadlines, would likely be seen as negative for future margins.
2. Analyst notes and rating changes into earnings
With earnings just days away, Wall Street desks are publishing preview notes:
- Zacks has already framed Costco’s Q1 sales trends as constructive for holiday strength but emphasized the rich valuation. [37]
- 24/7 Wall St.’s price‑prediction piece and related coverage flag Costco as a steady but not spectacular performer at current multiples, with upside dependent on sustained high comps and membership renewal rates north of 90%. [38]
Any new target cuts, upgrades, or downgrades that cross the tape before the open could add short‑term volatility.
3. Institutional and insider narrative
The December 8 MarketBeat pieces showing Bank of Nova Scotia boosting holdings and SVB Wealth cutting theirs, along with earlier reports of insider selling, paint a nuanced picture: [39]
- Large institutions still see Costco as a core holding but are actively re‑balancing.
- Insiders trimming into strength suggests management recognizes the stock’s premium pricing, even as they continue to execute operationally.
Traders may watch Tuesday’s tape for block trades or signs of further institutional repositioning.
4. Macro backdrop and the Fed
Costco is now one of the “stocks to watch” in broader market previews ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve decision, according to outlets like Barron’s and FinanceCharts’ news roll. [40]
Higher‑for‑longer interest rates tend to pressure high‑multiple stocks more than deep‑value names. If bond yields jump or Fed commentary skews unexpectedly hawkish, COST could feel that macro gravity even if its own headlines are quiet.
5. Technical levels and sentiment
Short‑term traders will likely be focused on:
- Whether COST can hold above the low‑$880s, which have acted as near‑term support,
- How it behaves if it revisits the 52‑week low near $872, and
- Whether any bounce can reclaim the low‑$900s, where the 50‑day moving average sat recently. [41]
Given that algorithmic models are calling for modest downside over the next few months but acknowledging some bullish signals, expect choppy trading rather than a one‑way trend — at least until Thursday’s earnings provide a clearer fundamental update.
9. For traders vs. long‑term investors
- Short‑term traders heading into Tuesday’s open are dealing with a classic “high‑quality, high‑multiple” setup right before a big event:
- Headlines on the tariff lawsuit,
- Speculation about a special dividend, and
- Earnings only three sessions away.
- Long‑term investors may view Monday’s weakness differently. The business still shows:
- High‑single‑digit sales growth,
- Strong membership renewals and traffic,
- Double‑digit e‑commerce growth,
- A long record of dividend growth and occasional special dividends, and
- A board that is adding a heavyweight in trade and economic policy. [42]
Final note
All price and valuation figures here are as of the close and early after‑hours on Monday, December 8, 2025, and can change quickly once pre‑market trading heats up. This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Anyone considering trading or investing in Costco should evaluate their own risk tolerance and, if needed, consult a qualified financial professional.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.theguardian.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. www.marketwatch.com, 9. www.financecharts.com, 10. www.financecharts.com, 11. 247wallst.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.homepagenews.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. nypost.com, 17. www.theguardian.com, 18. www.projectfinance.law, 19. en.wikipedia.org, 20. investor.costco.com, 21. www.washingtonexaminer.com, 22. www.globenewswire.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. simplywall.st, 26. www.zacks.com, 27. 247wallst.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.financecharts.com, 32. www.financecharts.com, 33. stockinvest.us, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. 247wallst.com, 36. www.theguardian.com, 37. www.nasdaq.com, 38. 247wallst.com, 39. www.marketbeat.com, 40. www.financecharts.com, 41. www.marketbeat.com, 42. www.nasdaq.com
