Costco Wholesale Corporation stock finished Tuesday’s regular session modestly higher and was largely unchanged in after-hours trading—a calm tape for a retailer that’s become one of Wall Street’s most debated “quality at any price” names going into year-end.
As of the latest after-hours update, Costco (NASDAQ: COST) last traded at about $854.79, up roughly 0.5% from Monday’s close, with no meaningful move after the closing bell.
That quiet after-hours action matters because Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025 (Christmas Eve) is a shortened U.S. trading session, and thinner liquidity can exaggerate price swings—especially for mega-cap favorites and widely held consumer-staples compounders like Costco. [1]
Below is what’s driving the setup tonight, what analysts are forecasting right now, and what to watch before the opening bell tomorrow.
Costco stock after the bell: where COST closed and what the chart is signaling
Costco shares closed Tuesday at $854.79, after trading between roughly $847.48 and $854.98, on about 1.9 million shares—a relatively light print consistent with pre-holiday conditions. [2]
Two price levels stand out for traders heading into Wednesday:
- 52-week low: ~$844.06
- 52-week high: ~$1,078.24 [3]
With COST ending near $855, the stock is sitting only about 1%–2% above its 52-week low—even after the company posted strong recent sales growth. [4]
That combination—near-lows price action with still-premium fundamentals—is the core tension in the Costco story heading into the next session.
Why Costco is in focus tonight even without an after-hours headline
The bigger story isn’t what happened after the bell—it’s what didn’t happen.
There were no major company announcements late Tuesday, and the stock didn’t react sharply in extended trading. Instead, investors are positioning around three forces:
- Holiday-week market dynamics (lower volume, early close)
- Macro signals about consumer demand
- A valuation debate that’s intensified as Costco’s stock underperformed in 2025
On that last point: several data aggregators show Costco down roughly ~11% over the past 52 weeks, a rare soft patch for a name long treated as a “defensive growth” benchmark. [5]
Today’s market backdrop: S&P 500 hit a record while Costco stayed subdued
U.S. stocks broadly pushed higher Tuesday, with the S&P 500 closing at a record as investors digested stronger economic growth data and leaned back into mega-cap leadership. [6]
But under the surface, the macro message was mixed:
- The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Q3 2025 GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate (in a delayed release tied to the recent government shutdown). [7]
- Consumer confidence weakened in December, according to the Conference Board, with Reuters reporting the index at 89.1. [8]
For Costco investors, that push-pull matters. Costco tends to hold up well when consumers feel pressure (its “value-per-trip” reputation is a feature), but sentiment-driven slowdowns can still affect discretionary categories, big-ticket items, and traffic trends at the margin.
The most important Costco fundamentals investors are anchoring to right now
While Tuesday’s after-hours tape was quiet, the company’s most recent operating updates remain the foundation for expectations into 2026.
1) Costco’s latest quarterly results show sales and earnings strength
In its first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended Nov. 23, 2025), Costco reported:
- Net sales: $65.98 billion, up 8.2% year over year
- Total revenue: $67.31 billion (including membership fees)
- Net income: $2.001 billion, or $4.50 per diluted share
- Membership fees: $1.329 billion (a high-margin engine investors watch closely) [9]
Reuters also highlighted that Costco beat Wall Street expectations, helped by demand for essentials (and “nice-to-have” items) heading into the holiday season, while noting the importance of Costco’s private-label strategy and higher-income shoppers to market share trends. [10]
2) The November sales update reinforced momentum, especially online
In Costco’s November 2025 sales release, the company reported:
- November (4 weeks ended Nov. 30) net sales: $23.64 billion, up 8.1% year over year
- Total company comparable sales (4 weeks): +6.9%
- Digitally-enabled comparable sales (4 weeks): +16.6% [11]
Those numbers are why some investors view Costco’s recent share weakness as more about multiple compression than business deterioration.
3) Tariffs and merchandising strategy are a live theme this week
A Wall Street Journal report this month described how Costco has adjusted portions of its assortment in response to tariff pressures—reducing exposure where higher costs would erode member value, while leaning into categories with better value optics and supply flexibility. [12]
Even when only a small slice of SKUs is affected, tariffs can matter for gross margin optics, category mix, and investor perception—especially for a company famous for keeping markups low.
Wall Street forecasts and valuation: targets imply upside, but the bear case is about the multiple
Forecasts for Costco right now tend to split into two camps: “durable compounding” vs. “great company, expensive stock.”
The consensus target still points higher
One widely cited compilation lists Costco with a consensus “Buy” stance and an average price target around $1,051—roughly low-20% upside from current levels. [13]
Another analyst aggregation shows a similar central estimate (about $1,040) with a broad range extending from the high-$700s up to around $1,205. [14]
The valuation debate is the headline risk—especially near year-end
Even after pulling back from earlier highs, Costco’s valuation remains elevated versus many retailers and staples peers:
- P/E ratio ~45.8
- Forward P/E ~41.6 [15]
That’s why some research notes emphasize that Costco can execute flawlessly yet still deliver muted returns if the market continues to compress multiples.
A Seeking Alpha analysis published Tuesday made that basic argument: exceptional execution, structurally constrained margin expansion, and a return outlook heavily dependent on what investors are willing to pay for predictability. [16]
Meanwhile, a separate Seeking Alpha news/analysis item today framed Costco’s operating trajectory as still solid into 2026—highlighting high-single-digit growth and mid-single-digit comps as potentially sustainable if macro conditions cooperate. [17]
The “sell” call investors keep referencing
A notable bearish anchor remains Roth Capital’s downgrade to Sell earlier this month, which cut its price target to $769. That note continues to circulate because it focuses on the core counterargument: Costco’s premium valuation leaves little room for disappointment. [18]
What to know before the market opens tomorrow, Dec. 24, 2025
Here are the practical, high-signal items that can shape COST’s next session.
1) Tomorrow is a Christmas Eve early-close session
Both NYSE and Nasdaq close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24, and markets are closed Christmas Day. Bond markets also close early (commonly cited as 2:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 24). [19]
What this means for Costco stock:
- Liquidity is thinner, spreads can widen, and intraday moves can look “bigger” than they feel.
- Price action can be more sensitive to index flows because Costco is heavily owned across consumer-staples funds and broad-market portfolios.
2) Key economic data hits at 8:30 a.m. ET
The most widely flagged U.S. data point on Wednesday morning is initial jobless claims (week ended Dec. 20). MarketWatch’s economic calendar lists consensus around 225,000. [20]
Why Costco investors care: jobless claims are a fast read on labor-market cooling, which can quickly change the market’s view on consumer resilience—particularly into early 2026.
3) Watch the “consumer health” narrative after today’s confidence drop
With consumer confidence reported weaker in December, investor attention may swing between:
- Value retailers gaining wallet share, and
- Evidence that higher-income cohorts (important for Costco) remain steady. [21]
If futures are reactive to macro headlines tomorrow morning, COST can move with the broader “consumer defensives” basket even without company news.
4) Know the next scheduled Costco catalysts
Costco’s investor calendar points to upcoming company updates shortly after the holiday:
- December sales results: Jan. 7, 2026
- Shareholders’ meeting: Jan. 15, 2026
- January sales results: Feb. 4, 2026 [22]
Those dates help explain why some investors may avoid making aggressive bets in a half-day session—many prefer waiting for the next sales datapoint.
5) The level to watch: $844 (the 52-week low zone)
From a market-structure standpoint, COST hovering just above the $844 52-week low is significant. If it holds above that level into year-end, it may reinforce the “base building” narrative. If it breaks decisively, it can trigger mechanical selling tied to technical levels and risk models. [23]
Bottom line for Costco stock tonight
Costco stock is ending Dec. 23 with a deceptively simple setup:
- Business trends (sales, comps, membership fees, online) look strong. [24]
- The stock price is still near its annual low, even as the broader market hits records. [25]
- The debate is valuation and macro sensitivity—not whether Costco can execute. [26]
- Tomorrow’s half-day session and the 8:30 a.m. jobless claims print are the main near-term catalysts before Costco’s next sales update in early January. [27]
If you want, I can rewrite this into a version tailored to a specific audience (long-term investors vs. short-term traders) while keeping it Google News–style and fully source-backed.
References
1. www.nasdaqtrader.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. finance.yahoo.com, 6. apnews.com, 7. www.bea.gov, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. investor.costco.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. investor.costco.com, 12. www.wsj.com, 13. stockanalysis.com, 14. www.tradingview.com, 15. stockanalysis.com, 16. seekingalpha.com, 17. seekingalpha.com, 18. www.investors.com, 19. www.nasdaqtrader.com, 20. www.marketwatch.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. investor.costco.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. investor.costco.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. seekingalpha.com, 27. www.nasdaqtrader.com
