CrowdStrike (CRWD) Stock on December 3, 2025: Q3 Earnings Beat, AI Tailwinds and New Wall Street Targets

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD) is back in the spotlight after reporting another strong quarter and lifting its outlook, even as the stock trades near record valuations and shows some signs of investor fatigue.

As of late U.S. trading on December 3, 2025, CrowdStrike shares are changing hands around $515, down slightly on the day after opening near $497 and dipping as low as about $487. That follows a prior close around $516.55, meaning the stock initially gapped lower despite positive earnings headlines before recovering most of the loss. ^[1]

Below is a detailed look at the latest earnings, AI story, analyst forecasts and valuation debate driving CRWD stock today.

1. CrowdStrike stock snapshot on December 3, 2025

• Price: about $515.08 as of ~17:35 UTC.
• Intraday range: high near $517.7, low around $487.1.
• Gap down at the open: stock opened near $497.99 after the previous close at $516.55, before rebounding. ^[2]
• Market cap & balance sheet: recent reports put CrowdStrike’s market value well above $120 billion, with a current ratio around 1.8–1.9 and a debt‑to‑equity ratio near 0.2, indicating solid liquidity and modest leverage. TS2 Tech

Despite the small daily decline, CRWD remains close to all‑time highs and has delivered a very strong performance over the past year, driven by accelerating demand for AI‑enabled cybersecurity and a steady stream of earnings beats.

2. Q3 FY2026: another “beat and raise” quarter

CrowdStrike’s fiscal third quarter 2026 (three months ended October 31, 2025) was one of the strongest in the company’s history:

• Revenue:
  • Total revenue came in at $1.23 billion, up 22% year‑on‑year.
  • Subscription revenue reached $1.17 billion, rising 21% from the prior‑year quarter. ^[3]
• Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR):
  • Ending ARR climbed to $4.92 billion, up 23% year‑over‑year.
  • Net new ARR in the quarter hit a record $265 million, with growth accelerating to about 73% versus a year earlier. ^[4]
• Profitability (non‑GAAP):
  • Non‑GAAP operating income: $264.6 million, up from $200.7 million a year ago.
  • Non‑GAAP net income: $245.4 million, vs. $190.9 million a year earlier.
  • Non‑GAAP EPS (diluted): $0.96, up from $0.76 and slightly ahead of consensus around $0.94. ^[5]
• GAAP bottom line and cash flow:
  • On a GAAP basis, CrowdStrike still reported a net loss of $34 million (‑$0.14 per share), compared with a loss of $16.8 million a year earlier. ^[6]
  • Operating cash flow hit a record $397.5 million, and free cash flow reached about $296 million, both records for a third quarter. ^[7]

Management described Q3 as “one of our best quarters in company history,” citing record ARR, strong AI‑driven demand and increasing adoption of its Falcon platform across endpoint, cloud, identity and SIEM use cases. ^[8]

3. AI‑driven Falcon platform remains the growth engine

A big part of today’s bull case around CrowdStrike is its role as an AI security platform, not just a point solution.

Recent highlights include: ^[9]

• New and enhanced offerings such as Falcon Next‑Gen Identity Security, Falcon Data Protection, Falcon for IT and Falcon for XIoT, all sitting on the Falcon platform.
• Continued rollout of Charlotte AI, CrowdStrike’s security assistant, which now has FedRAMP High authorization for U.S. federal use.
• Launch of Threat AI, described as an “agentic” threat intelligence system.
• Strategic AI partnerships:
  • With CoreWeave to power a secure AI cloud foundation for the “agentic era”.
  • With NVIDIA to bring always‑on, continuously learning AI agents to the edge via Charlotte AI AgentWorks and NVIDIA’s Nemotron and NeMo stack.
  • Expanded ties with AWS, including delivering an integrated SIEM experience through AWS Marketplace.

Reuters notes that CrowdStrike’s upbeat outlook is being driven by growing adoption of AI across its product suite, at a time when enterprises are rapidly upgrading defenses against more sophisticated cyber threats. ^[10]

4. Guidance: CrowdStrike raises the bar again

Along with Q3 results, management raised its near‑term outlook:

Q4 FY2026 (ending January 31, 2026)

CrowdStrike now expects: ^[11]

• Revenue: between $1.29 billion and $1.30 billion, above prior Street expectations around $1.22 billion.
• Non‑GAAP EPS (diluted): between $1.09 and $1.11.

Full‑year FY2026

Updated guidance calls for: ^[12]

• Total revenue:$4.80–$4.81 billion.
• Non‑GAAP EPS:$3.70–$3.72.

Analysts highlight that revenue growth is expected to remain in the low‑to‑mid‑20% range, with earnings rising faster as the company benefits from scale and improving margins. StockAnalysis’ consensus models revenue of $4.88 billion this fiscal year (up ~23% YoY) and almost $5.95 billion next year, implying ~22% growth in FY2027, with EPS projected to climb from 3.75 to 4.86. ^[13]

5. Why the stock is wobbling after strong numbers

If the fundamentals look so good, why did CRWD initially sell off on December 3?

Several overlapping explanations are showing up in analyst notes and market commentary: ^[14]

1. Profit‑taking after a big run
   • TIKR and others point out that CrowdStrike shares had rallied roughly 25% over the past three months and nearly 50% over the past year, leaving little room for even a strong quarter to surprise.
2. “Priced for perfection” valuation
   • MarketBeat data still shows a negative GAAP P/E (around –400x) because GAAP earnings remain slightly negative. ^[15]
   • GuruFocus and other providers estimate a forward P/E in the ~100–110x range and a price‑to‑sales ratio near 29–30x, levels that are several times higher than most cybersecurity peers. ^[16]
3. Mixed short‑term signals
   • Benzinga notes the stock was down about 2–3% in early trading on December 3 despite the beat and raise, attributing the pressure to “high expectations and elevated valuation”. ^[17]
   • Some technical services flag increasingly cautious near‑term signals after the big run, even while acknowledging strong fundamentals. TS2 Tech

In short: CrowdStrike’s Q3 was very good, but investors were already expecting “very good.” At current multiples, the bar for positive surprises is extremely high.

6. Wall Street reaction: target hikes and bullish commentary

Despite valuation worries, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly positive on CRWD.

Fresh analyst moves around December 2–3, 2025

Recent actions include: ^[18]

• BMO Capital – Maintained Outperform, raised price target from $500 to $555 (about +11%). ^[19]
• Scotiabank – Sector Outperform, lifted target from $600 to $613. ^[20]
• Canaccord Genuity – Hold, target raised from $500 to $515. ^[21]
• Wedbush – Reiterated Outperform and $600 target, highlighting record net new ARR and strong Falcon Flex adoption. ^[22]
• Rosenblatt Securities – Buy with one of the most aggressive targets at $630. ^[23]
• DA Davidson – Buy, target raised to $580 from $515. ^[24]
• BofA Securities – Neutral with a $535 target, noting that valuation is “elevated” even after strong results. ^[25]
• Earlier in the week, KeyBanc, JPMorgan and Oppenheimer also nudged targets higher, many clustering between $570 and $580. ^[26]

Many of these notes emphasize:

• The reacceleration in ARR and subscription revenue. ^[27]
• Strong uptake of the Falcon Flex subscription model, which now represents over $1.35 billion in ARR, more than 200% growth year‑on‑year. ^[28]
• Strength across newer areas like Next‑Gen SIEM, cloud security and identity. ^[29]

7. Consensus forecasts: modest upside from current levels

Different aggregators show slightly different numbers, but they tell a similar story: most analysts see modest upside rather than explosive gains from here.

StockAnalysis

• 40 analysts covering the stock.
• Consensus rating:Buy.
• Average 12‑month price target:$542.23, implying about 4.8% upside from recent prices.
• Target range: $343 to $640, roughly –34% to +24% from current levels. ^[30]

TipRanks

• 36 analysts over the last three months.
• Consensus:Moderate Buy (25 Buy, 10 Hold, 1 Sell).
• Average price target:$552.35, about 9–10% above a recent reference price around $504.
• High estimate $706, low $343. ^[31]

MarketBeat & GuruFocus

• MarketBeat reports a Moderate Buy consensus and an average target of about $554, based on a mix of Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and a couple of Sell ratings. ^[32]
• GuruFocus compiles 48 analysts with an average target around $531.34, indicating only a few percent upside from the recent $516–$520 trading range, and notes that its own fair‑value estimate (GF Value) near $495.88 is slightly below the current market price. ^[33]

Overall, the Street still likes CRWD, but expectations are tempered: upside is there, but not huge, unless growth or profitability accelerates more than currently modeled.

8. The bull case: platform, AI and sticky recurring revenue

Reasons many investors remain enthusiastic about CrowdStrike include: ^[34]

1. Category leadership in cloud‑native security
   CrowdStrike is widely viewed as one of the top names in endpoint and cloud workload security, with a single, cloud‑native platform (Falcon) that handles endpoints, workloads, identity, data, SIEM and more from one agent.
2. High‑quality recurring revenue
   • ARR of $4.92 billion, growing 23% year‑over‑year, provides strong revenue visibility. ^[35]
   • Module adoption is rising: nearly half of customers use six or more Falcon modules, and a growing share use seven or eight, deepening stickiness. ^[36]
3. Strong growth + improving profitability
   • Three‑year revenue growth rate around 36% annually. TS2 Tech
   • Free cash flow margin in the mid‑20% range and annual FCF now above $1 billion, giving the company ample room to invest while still generating cash. ^[37]
4. AI leverage and partnerships
   • The combination of Charlotte AI, Threat AI and deep partnerships with hyperscalers like AWS and NVIDIA gives CrowdStrike a strong narrative as an AI infrastructure play within cybersecurity. ^[38]
5. Institutional support
   • Around 70%+ of shares are held by institutions and hedge funds, including major asset managers, indicating strong professional sponsorship. ^[39]

For long‑term growth‑oriented investors, this mix of rapid growth, sticky recurring revenue and high cash generation is the core of the bull thesis.

9. The bear case: stretched valuation and key risks

More cautious voices are not questioning the business, but rather the price being paid for that business.

Valuation concerns

A detailed breakdown from Seeking Alpha and valuation tools like GuruFocus highlights: ^[40]

• Forward P/E around 100–110x and EV/Sales ~26x, multiples well above the broader software and security sectors.
• Price‑to‑sales near 29–30x on a trailing basis, close to historical highs for CrowdStrike.
• A forward PEG ratio (price to earnings‑growth) above 6, suggesting even after factoring growth, the stock isn’t obviously cheap.

One Seeking Alpha analyst keeps a Hold rating with a $560 target (roughly 9% upside from recent levels), arguing that while CrowdStrike is a “defensive” cybersecurity leader, margin expansion is slowing and the premium valuation leaves little room for error. ^[41]

Competitive and execution risks

Other commonly cited risks include: ^[42]

1. Intense competition
   • CrowdStrike faces heavyweight rivals like Palo Alto Networks, Microsoft, Fortinet and SentinelOne, all investing heavily in AI‑driven security.
2. Reputational impact from the 2024 outage
   • The company is still working through reputational damage from a July 2024 content‑update incident that crashed some Windows systems globally; both Reuters and CrowdStrike’s own filings flag this as a key risk factor. ^[43]
3. Insider selling and sentiment
   • MarketBeat data show insiders have sold more than 100,000 shares in recent months, including small trims from CEO George Kurtz and other executives, while there have been no recent insider purchases. ^[44]
   • Heavy insider selling at high valuations doesn’t automatically signal trouble, but it reinforces the “priced for perfection” narrative.
4. Macro and IT‑spending cycles
   • Security spending is relatively resilient, but not immune to macro slowdowns or IT budget pressure, especially if customers push back on premium pricing after the 2024 outage episode. TS2 Tech

If growth slows even modestly, or if another reliability issue surfaces, skeptics argue that CrowdStrike could see meaningful multiple compression from today’s levels.

10. Alternative and long‑term forecasts

Beyond Wall Street analysts, several sites publish algorithmic or very long‑term price forecasts for CRWD:

• A 24/7 Wall St. overview sees “strong upside” through the decade, citing CrowdStrike’s leadership in cloud security and AI‑driven platform consolidation. TS2 Tech
• Some widely circulated forecasts suggest CRWD could potentially reach the $700+ range by 2026 and even four‑digit territory by 2029–2030 in very bullish scenarios, assuming growth and margins remain robust. TS2 Tech

These models are purely illustrative and extremely sensitive to assumptions. They’re best treated as scenarios, not predictions.

11. What December 3, 2025 means if you follow CRWD

Putting it all together:

• The business: CrowdStrike is executing at a very high level — accelerating ARR, strong AI product momentum, record cash flow and raised guidance all support the idea that the company is still gaining share in a growing market. ^[45]
• The stock: CRWD is now a high‑expectation, high‑multiple name. The consensus view calls for mid‑20% revenue growth and robust earnings expansion, but also sees only single‑digit percentage upside from current prices over the next year. ^[46]
• The debate: Bulls focus on durable growth, platform leverage and AI leadership. Bears focus on valuation, competition, and the possibility that any stumble — whether macro, competitive or operational — could trigger a rapid reset in the multiple. ^[47]

For traders and investors watching CrowdStrike on December 3, 2025, the key question isn’t whether the company is performing well — it clearly is. The real question is whether its current price already reflects that excellence and then some.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation of any investment strategy. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

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