New York, Feb 15, 2026, 12:05 EST — Market closed
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 48.95 points, or 0.1%, to close at 49,500.93 on Friday, with a milder inflation reading helping to calm Wall Street after a steep AI-driven selloff. U.S. stock and bond markets will be shut on Monday, Feb. 16, for Presidents Day. “It’s still too high, but only for now, not forever,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, referring to inflation. WTOP News
The late surge of calm didn’t undo the week’s hit. After notching record highs to start the week, the Dow ended down 1.2%. Tech stocks struggled again, dragging the Nasdaq to a fifth consecutive weekly decline. Earlier, a January jobs report that beat forecasts forced traders to rethink their expectations for Fed rate cuts.
U.S. consumer prices climbed 2.4% in January compared to a year ago, coming in just below the 2.5% increase economists had anticipated in a Reuters poll. “The CPI is closer to the Fed’s long-term inflation target of 2% than it is to 3%,” said Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion. After the Fed held rates steady last month, traders began factoring in at least two rate cuts before the year is out. Reuters
All eyes turn to Wednesday for the next Fed signal, as the central bank prepares to release minutes from its Jan. 27-28 meeting—a window into what officials hashed out. The Fed’s calendar flags Washington’s Birthday on Feb. 16, pushing certain data releases to Tuesday, Feb. 17.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is rolling out two key reports Friday, a result of earlier delays tied to the shutdown: advance GDP numbers for Q4 and all of 2025, and December’s Personal Income and Outlays, which features the PCE price index. That PCE — Personal Consumption Expenditures — is the inflation measure the Fed watches most closely.
Desks are moving early to handicap the potential fallout from the coming PCE report. Kiplinger pointed to Barclays analyst Pooja Sriram, who’s looking for a 0.4% monthly climb in both headline and core PCE numbers for December—a scenario that could shake up yields and stocks if the data tops current investor expectations.
Beyond the U.S. numbers, there’s still a full slate that could shake up risk sentiment this week. S&P Global flagged February “flash” PMI business surveys, plus GDP and inflation reads from big economies—a mix that tends to put the growth-versus-rates argument back on the table in a hurry. S&P Global
Walmart is set to drop its fourth-quarter numbers at 6 a.m. CST on Thursday, Feb. 19. An hour later, CEO John Furner and CFO John David Rainey will get on a call to walk through the results.
Deere is on the docket for Thursday too. The company’s first-quarter earnings call is set for Feb. 19 at 9 a.m. CST. Investors like to watch Deere’s figures for clues on the industrial and farm sectors, even if macro rate moves are driving the broader tape.
Trade policy—it’s always there, especially for industrials, and can move quickly. The Trump administration is holding the line on steel and aluminum tariffs for now: no changes unless President Trump says so, officials said, after reports surfaced suggesting a potential rollback. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made it clear: any shift or clarification would come straight from Trump himself.
There’s also the question of whether cash keeps shifting from expensive growth names into value plays—a trend Reuters highlighted as something to watch this week. Once trading resumes Tuesday, desks are looking to the Fed’s January minutes, out Wednesday, Feb. 18, as the first significant event.
