New York, March 16, 2026, 10:27 AM EDT.
Tech stocks gave U.S. indexes a lift out of the gate Monday, snapping a three-week losing streak, while a pullback in oil prices eased risk-off sentiment. The Dow kicked things off up 148.9 points at 46,707.4. S&P 500 tacked on 42.2 points to reach 6,674.37, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 235 points, landing at 22,340.39.
The timing isn’t lost on investors. The Federal Reserve kicks off its March 17-18 meeting Tuesday, with officials widely seen keeping rates unchanged as they assess whether tensions with Iran signal weaker growth, stickier inflation, or potentially both.
The market took a hit Friday. The Dow shed 119.38 points, with the S&P 500 off 40.43 and the Nasdaq retreating 206.62. Russell 2000? It wrapped up at its lowest mark this year. Among S&P sectors, tech lagged furthest behind.
Oil prices pulled back Monday, but the geopolitical risk hasn’t disappeared. Brent crude eased 92 cents to $102.22 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate slid a sharper $3.45, landing at $95.26. Both benchmarks, though, have surged over 40% this month, fueled by attacks near the Gulf and supply snarls at the Strait of Hormuz—which handles about one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG traffic.
Uncertainty still hangs over the data. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, January’s personal consumption expenditures—the inflation metric the Fed tracks—posted a 2.8% gain year-over-year. Core PCE ticked up 3.1%. Meanwhile, the agency cut its fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate to a 0.7% annualized pace.
Some of the optimism for Fed easing has already been priced out. Ten-year Treasury yields hovered at 4.23% on Monday. Odds of a June Fed cut? Down sharply—to 26%, from 69% just a month back. Kenneth Broux at Societe Generale says investors are left weighing whether the oil shock will set off more inflation or tip economies toward recession. Europe’s STOXX 600 edged up 0.3%, Asia-Pacific stocks rose 0.7%. The S&P 500, though, remains 3.5% lower since the conflict started.
The short-term technical setup looks a bit better, though gains are modest. FXEmpire analyst Christopher Lewis pointed out the Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones 30, and S&P 500 are all rebounding off their 200-day exponential moving averages — a commonly-watched trend line emphasizing recent action. Lewis identified 25,000 for the Nasdaq 100, 47,000 for the Dow, and 6,800 for the S&P 500 as the next hurdles for bulls.
There’s an argument for staying patient, not panicking. Hyun Song Shin, chief economic adviser at the Bank for International Settlements, suggested central banks “look through” supply-driven energy shocks—assuming they’re short-lived—even as he called the latest market moves “a very confusing picture” after oil surged 40% this month. Reuters
There’s a risk that Monday’s bounce turns out to be just a quick fix. According to Goldman Sachs, a sharp oil supply shock could push the S&P 500 down to around 5,400 this year—about 19% below where it finished on Friday. A milder U.S. growth shock would leave the index closer to 6,300. Goldman is sticking with its 7,600 year-end call, but points to the war in Iran as another downside threat, especially given lofty valuations.
Wall Street heads into the open with less clutter, but there’s no clear shift yet. This week, the Fed, ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan all hold meetings—marking just the second time these major central banks are gathering simultaneously. Investors are watching to see if oil’s drop will last long enough for policymakers to call it a temporary shock rather than the start of something bigger.
