New York, February 4, 2026, 10:04 ET — Regular session
- The Dow was up 0.4% at the open, while the Nasdaq slipped as tech stayed shaky.
- Earnings optimism in healthcare and AI hardware is colliding with fresh anxiety about AI disrupting software.
- Traders are watching delayed U.S. jobs data and a heavy run of megacap earnings.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher early on Wednesday, lifted by upbeat results from Eli Lilly and Super Micro Computer, while investors stayed cautious on software and cloud stocks after a sharp selloff a day earlier. At 09:30 a.m. ET, the Dow rose 175.92 points, or 0.40%, to 49,439.32; the S&P 500 was up 0.04% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.27%. 1
That modest lift comes after a bruising Tuesday, when the Dow fell 0.34% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slid 0.84% and 1.43% as investors fretted that artificial intelligence (AI) could sharpen competition and squeeze margins for software makers. “We’re seeing a lot of software companies across the spectrum get hit,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, while John Campbell, a senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, pointed to “an expensive market” with expectations “really high” as investors looked ahead to results from Alphabet and Amazon later this week. 2
The nerves are not confined to U.S. stocks. “Anthropic is now… parking its tanks on their lawn,” IG chief markets strategist Chris Beauchamp said, as investors weighed how fast new AI tools could unsettle data, analytics and software business models. Oil also jumped on U.S.-Iran tensions, adding another moving piece for risk appetite. 3
Economic signals were mixed. ADP reported U.S. private payrolls rose by 22,000 in January, undershooting forecasts for 48,000, and Reuters said markets were little moved by the data as investors wait for the more comprehensive government jobs report, which was delayed by the recent partial shutdown. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week “labor market indicators suggest that conditions may be stabilizing,” after the Fed left rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range. 4
Washington is still in the picture. President Donald Trump signed a spending bill on Tuesday ending the partial shutdown and extending funding for the Department of Homeland Security only until February 13, setting up another near-term deadline. 5
On the earnings front, Lilly forecast 2026 profit of $33.50 to $35 per share and sales of $80 billion to $83 billion, both above Wall Street estimates, as demand for its obesity drug Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro drove a strong quarter. “It reminds us that while Lilly and Novo play in the same markets, the pressures they face are not identical,” BMO Capital analyst Evan Seigerman said after rival Novo Nordisk warned of “unprecedented” pricing pressure. 6
Super Micro, a beneficiary of the AI data-center buildout, raised its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to at least $40 billion. “Order strength remains strong from large global data center and enterprise customers,” CFO David Weigand said, while CEO Charles Liang flagged near-term margin pressure from tariffs, facility costs and component shortages even as the company targets longer-run improvement. 7
The Dow’s early resilience also reflects a market trying to rotate rather than run — money moving toward perceived winners and away from software names seen as exposed to AI disruption. The index is price-weighted, meaning a swing in a few high-priced components can move the Dow more than broad participation would suggest.
But the rebound is thin. If AI spending plans or profit guidance from big tech fail to match lofty expectations, the same “priced for perfection” tone that punished software on Tuesday could return quickly, especially with key economic data still in flux after the shutdown.
Next up is the earnings grind: Alphabet is due to report after the market closes on Wednesday, and Amazon follows on Thursday after the close. Investors are also waiting for clarity on when delayed U.S. government jobs data will be released. 8
