DUBAI, March 9, 2026, 13:27 (GST)
- Moody’s is projecting roughly 180,000 residential units to be completed in Dubai between 2026 and 2028, a stretch that could put some pressure on price momentum.
- Deals are still getting done, brokers report, though a number of buyers have moved to a “wait-and-see” approach.
- Consultancies point to foreign demand as a crucial support, with Indians standing out as one of the largest buyer groups.
Dubai’s property sector is bracing for a fresh flood of supply, with Moody’s projecting about 180,000 new residential units coming online from 2026 to 2028. “Our base case is not a disorderly oversupply, but rather a sizeable supply wave that slows price growth and cools transaction momentum,” said Lisa Jaeger, vice-president senior analyst at Moody’s Ratings. CBRE MENA research chief Matthew Green is also calling for more tempered growth this year, though he points out that foreign capital remains a key driver of demand, the report said. Gulf News
Dubai property, a top draw for offshore capital and newcomers to the UAE, sits at the heart of the issue. Developers here rely on pre-sales to bankroll new projects. If the market cools, expect the impact to show up fast—in prices, rents, and credit conditions—hitting smaller builders with lighter order books the hardest.
Awkward timing for markets. Oil prices have spiked over 15% after supply cuts, stoking fresh worries about the Strait of Hormuz and sapping risk appetite. UAE stocks slid again early Monday, deepening losses as energy tensions rattled the region.
Brokers on site report business hasn’t ground to a halt, though the tone feels different. “Buyers who already signed MOUs are proceeding as normal,” said broker Ben Crompton. But, he noted, “Most buyers are in a ‘wait-and-see’ mode.” (MOUs — memorandums of understanding — serve as a first-step purchase agreement.) Khaleej Times
Foreign buyers are still calling the shots, with Indians especially busy snapping up homes at both the high-end and in the middle tiers, consultancies told local outlets. “Transaction volumes crossing 270,000 deals clearly reflect strong investor participation and deep liquidity in the market,” said Dr Prashant Thakur, executive director and head of research and advisory at Anarock Group, according to a recent quote. Khaleej Times
Deal volume hasn’t slowed. Dubai real estate racked up AED 11.85 billion ($3.2 billion) in transactions last week, with 2,631 sales, according to Dubai Land Department figures reported by Arabian Business.
Following a strong stretch, Dubai residential sales prices climbed 13% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with a year earlier. Annual rents posted a roughly 6% gain, according to CBRE’s February market review.
Early 2026 came out swinging. Property Finder said in February that January’s transaction value surged 63% from a year earlier, hitting AED 72.4 billion—primary market deals did most of the heavy lifting.
Off-plan buying—snapping up homes before they’re even finished—has driven much of the market’s depth. That’s helped keep volumes robust, even as buyers zero in more on price tags and neighborhoods. But if cancellations start to climb or resales get stuck, this setup can quickly magnify a slowdown.
The shift from “moderation” to a “downturn” isn’t set in stone. Slower-than-anticipated population growth, faster deliveries, or lingering geopolitical tensions could force developers to sweeten incentives. Sellers in crowded, mid-market districts might also find themselves waiting longer to close deals.
Deals are still coming to market. The real question is if that flow keeps up through the key handover months in 2026—and whether rents ease quickly enough to soften affordability pressure without knocking down demand.
