Dynavax Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: DVAX) is the center of the biotech tape on Wednesday, December 24, 2025, after Sanofi announced a deal to acquire the vaccine maker in an all-cash transaction valued at roughly $2.2 billion. The headline number investors are keying on: $15.50 per share in cash—a bid that reframes the near-term outlook for DVAX stock from “earnings and pipeline execution” to “deal timeline and closing risk.” [1]
Below is what’s driving today’s move, how the market is pricing the deal so far, what Wall Street forecasts looked like before the announcement, and the key dates and risks investors will likely track next.
What happened to Dynavax (DVAX) stock on Dec. 24, 2025?
Sanofi said it has entered into an agreement to acquire Dynavax, describing Dynavax as a publicly traded vaccines company with a marketed adult hepatitis B vaccine and a shingles candidate in development. The structure Sanofi laid out is a cash tender offer for all outstanding shares at $15.50 per share, followed by a merger to acquire the remaining shares at the same price if the tender is completed. [2]
Sanofi and Reuters both emphasized the premium embedded in the offer. Reuters reported the bid represents a 39% premium to Dynavax’s prior close and a 46% premium to the three-month average, underscoring that the move is not a “small tuck-in,” but a meaningful re-rating of the equity value versus where DVAX was trading. [3]
Early market reaction: DVAX gaps toward the offer price
Premarket quotes showed DVAX trading around $15.30, up roughly 37% early Wednesday—very close to (but still below) the $15.50 cash price, which is typical when markets are discounting for time-to-close and deal risk. [4]
That small gap—often called the deal spread—can widen or tighten based on perceived regulatory risk, financing certainty, and how quickly investors think the acquisition can close.
Deal terms that matter for DVAX investors
Sanofi’s press release laid out several key points that are likely to drive DVAX’s trading behavior from here until close:
- Price: $15.50 per share in cash (no stock component). [5]
- Value: approximately $2.2 billion equity value. [6]
- Board approval: Dynavax’s board unanimously approved the transaction. [7]
- Expected closing:Q1 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. [8]
- Key conditions: majority of shares tendered, expiration/termination of the Hart‑Scott‑Rodino (HSR) waiting period, certain foreign regulatory clearances, and other customary conditions. [9]
- Funding: Sanofi plans to fund the acquisition with available cash resources. [10]
For DVAX stock specifically, the tender-offer structure matters because it can influence timing, deal mechanics, and the cadence of required filings and shareholder communications.
Why Sanofi is buying Dynavax: HEPLISAV‑B and a shingles “option”
Sanofi’s rationale is straightforward: vaccines, adult immunization, and pipeline leverage.
HEPLISAV‑B: the cash-flow anchor
Sanofi highlighted HEPLISAV‑B, Dynavax’s adult hepatitis B vaccine, noting it is marketed in the U.S. and differentiated by a two-dose regimen over one month, versus the common three-dose, six-month schedule associated with other hepatitis B vaccines. [11]
From an acquirer’s perspective, that differentiation is commercial oxygen: faster series completion can translate into higher real-world uptake and completion rates—an important edge in adult vaccination.
Z‑1018 shingles candidate: upside if it beats the “tolerability tax”
Dynavax’s shingles program, Z‑1018, is in Phase 1/2 development. Sanofi said the acquisition includes this candidate and additional vaccine pipeline projects. [12]
Reuters also pointed to earlier-stage data suggesting Dynavax’s shingles candidate produced an immune response similar to GSK’s blockbuster Shingrix, with a potentially more favorable safety profile—an angle investors have watched because Shingrix is effective but can be reactogenic (the “tolerability tax” some patients hate paying). [13]
Dynavax fundamentals heading into the deal: growth, guidance, and buybacks
Buyout headlines can make it easy to forget the basics, but fundamentals still matter—especially as the “break price” for DVAX (what the stock might revert to if the deal collapses) is usually tied to the company’s underlying performance.
Dynavax’s most recent quarterly update (Q3 2025) included:
- Total revenue: $94.9 million (up 18% year over year)
- HEPLISAV‑B net product revenue: $90.0 million (up 13% year over year)
- GAAP net income: $26.9 million (about $0.23 basic / $0.21 diluted)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $35.5 million
- Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities: $647.8 million as of Sept. 30, 2025 [14]
Dynavax also reiterated / raised full-year targets at that time, including HEPLISAV‑B net product revenue guidance of $315–$325 million and Adjusted EBITDA of at least $80 million. [15]
And notably—because it signals management confidence—Dynavax’s board authorized a new $100 million share repurchase program in that same update. [16]
Today’s trading wrinkle: U.S. markets close early on Dec. 24, 2025
Because it’s Christmas Eve, the U.S. session is compressed. Official exchange schedules show the NYSE and Nasdaq close early at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025, with markets closed on Dec. 25. [17]
That matters for DVAX because buyout days can be extremely flow-driven—news breaks, arbitrage desks rebalance, retail piles in—so an early close can amplify volatility or leave the market feeling “unfinished” heading into the holiday.
(For bond-market context, SIFMA’s holiday guidance also points to an early close for U.S. fixed income on Dec. 24.) [18]
Analyst forecasts and price targets for DVAX before the buyout news
Here’s the ironic part: many published analyst targets on DVAX were well above $15.50 before today’s announcement—reflecting expectations that HEPLISAV‑B growth and the pipeline could drive substantial upside over a 12‑month horizon.
Examples of publicly posted consensus/targets as of late 2025 include:
- MarketWatch: average target price shown around $19.25 (with an “Overweight” style consensus displayed on its analyst estimates page). [19]
- MarketBeat: average 12‑month target around $24.33, with targets ranging up to the low $30s and down to $10 in its compilation. [20]
- StockAnalysis: compilation showing an average target around $26.50, with targets up to the low $30s (noting target data can be last-updated earlier in the year). [21]
- TipRanks: average target shown around $20.50, with a published range including mid-teens to mid‑$20s. [22]
- Zacks: target range displayed from $11 to $32 (wide dispersion, reflecting real disagreement about the out-year story). [23]
What these forecasts mean now (and what they don’t)
Once a definitive all-cash deal is announced, traditional 12‑month price targets stop being the main map. The stock usually trades like a merger-arbitrage instrument: anchored to the offer price, moving mainly on probabilities (deal closes / deal breaks) and the calendar (how long money is tied up).
Still, the fact that many published targets exceeded $15.50 helps explain why you’re already seeing “fairness” chatter around the bid.
The “stock alert” side-plot: merger litigation is already appearing
On the same day as the acquisition news, at least one investor-rights law firm publicly stated it is investigating whether the sale price is fair to Dynavax shareholders. These announcements are common after M&A deals—sometimes leading to additional disclosures, occasionally to minor settlements, and only rarely to material changes in terms. [24]
Investors should separate three different things that often get blended together online:
- A legal press release (often marketing)
- A real shareholder vote/tender decision (material)
- Regulatory clearance (material)
Only the last two reliably move the odds in a measurable way.
What could move DVAX stock next: the key catalysts checklist
From here, the most important DVAX “catalysts” are deal-process milestones rather than clinical readouts or quarterly beats:
- Tender offer launch and terms (timing, minimum tender threshold mechanics, expiration date, proration rules if any) [25]
- Regulatory review (HSR) progress and any indication of extended scrutiny [26]
- Shareholder response signals (whether large holders push back on price, seek appraisal, or demand topping bids)
- Any competing interest (rare, but always the wildcard when strategic assets and large-vs-small pharma are involved)
Sanofi stated it expects the deal to close in Q1 2026, which puts a rough window on how long the market may be pricing a merger spread. [27]
How to think about DVAX “forecast” after a cash buyout: scenario math, not vibes
With a fixed cash consideration, DVAX’s forward “forecast” is essentially a two-outcome tree:
Scenario A: Deal closes (base case if approvals proceed)
DVAX is cashed out at $15.50. [28]
Scenario B: Deal breaks (the risk investors are paid for)
The stock typically retraces toward a level based on Dynavax fundamentals—recent revenue trajectory, guidance, market share, and what investors think the pipeline is worth. Dynavax’s latest reported performance (revenue growth, profitability, cash position, and raised EBITDA guidance) is the kind of foundation that would matter most in a break scenario. [29]
The market’s live “probability-weighted” view is embedded in the spread between DVAX’s trading price and $15.50—a spread that can tighten (higher confidence / faster close) or widen (more perceived risk / longer timeline).
Bottom line on Dec. 24, 2025
Dynavax (DVAX) is moving because it’s effectively being redefined today from a standalone vaccine growth story into a pending acquisition with a clear cash endpoint: $15.50 per share—if the deal closes. [30]
The near-term playbook for investors now revolves around:
- the tender-offer process and filings,
- regulatory clearance (HSR and other jurisdictions),
- time-to-close into Q1 2026,
- and whether any shareholder pushback emerges given that many published analyst targets had been higher than the agreed price. [31]
One final practical note: with U.S. markets closing early at 1 p.m. ET today, liquidity and price discovery may be choppy into the holiday. [32]
References
1. www.sanofi.com, 2. www.sanofi.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.sanofi.com, 6. www.sanofi.com, 7. www.sanofi.com, 8. www.sanofi.com, 9. www.sanofi.com, 10. www.sanofi.com, 11. www.sanofi.com, 12. www.sanofi.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.prnewswire.com, 15. www.prnewswire.com, 16. www.prnewswire.com, 17. www.nyse.com, 18. www.sifma.org, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.zacks.com, 24. www.businesswire.com, 25. www.sanofi.com, 26. www.sanofi.com, 27. www.sanofi.com, 28. www.sanofi.com, 29. www.prnewswire.com, 30. www.sanofi.com, 31. www.sanofi.com, 32. www.nyse.com
