Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) closed just under the psychologically important $1,000 mark on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, then ticked slightly higher in after‑hours trading as investors digested a wave of company‑specific news against a backdrop of a fresh Federal Reserve rate cut. [1]
Below is what happened after the bell on Dec. 10 and what traders and long‑term investors should know before the market opens on Dec. 11, 2025.
LLY Stock After the Bell: Price Action at a Glance
- Regular session (Dec. 10, 2025):
- LLY finished around $994 per share, up roughly 1%–1.2% on the day, snapping a recent losing streak. [2]
- The stock traded in a wide intraday range near $977–$1,003, reflecting elevated volatility as markets responded to the Fed decision and company news. [3]
- Volume was in the neighborhood of 2.4–2.6 million shares, close to its recent average. [4]
- After‑hours (early evening, Dec. 10):
- LLY inched slightly higher, trading a bit above its close (around $994–$995, up ~0.05%), suggesting a muted but positive after‑hours reaction. [5]
- Context within the bigger picture:
- Over the past year, Lilly has been one of the market’s standout performers. Shares are up roughly 30–40% in 2025, far outpacing the S&P 500’s ~17% gain, thanks largely to explosive demand for its GLP‑1 weight‑loss and diabetes drugs. [6]
- The company recently became the first drugmaker ever to join the $1 trillion market‑cap club, a valuation zone usually reserved for mega‑cap tech. [7]
That’s the price backdrop. The real story, however, is today’s news flow—and there was a lot of it.
Today’s Biggest LLY Catalysts: Alabama Megaplant, Gene Therapy Deal and New Cancer Data
1. A $6 Billion Alabama Plant to Feed GLP‑1 Demand
Lilly confirmed it will build a $6 billion active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) manufacturing facility in Huntsville, Alabama, its largest single‑site investment in the United States and part of a broader $27 billion U.S. manufacturing expansion. [8]
Key details that matter for the stock:
- The Huntsville site will produce synthetic and peptide medicines, including orforglipron, Lilly’s experimental oral GLP‑1 pill for obesity and type 2 diabetes. [9]
- Construction is expected to start in 2026 and wrap up by 2032, creating around 3,000 construction jobs and ~450 highly skilled permanent roles. [10]
- The plant will leverage AI, machine learning and advanced automation to boost efficiency and help Lilly meet surging global demand for weight‑loss drugs. [11]
The Alabama announcement underscores Lilly’s strategy: lock in a manufacturing moat around GLP‑1 drugs (Mounjaro, Zepbound and the coming orforglipron pill) while responding to political pressure to “on‑shore” pharmaceutical production.
It also lands just weeks after Lilly reached an agreement with the Trump administration to cut GLP‑1 prices for government programs and expand U.S. manufacturing in exchange for three years of tariff relief and protection from future price mandates. [12]
Investor takeaway: The plant is long‑duration bullish for capacity and revenue—but it also reinforces how much Lilly’s story now hinges on obesity and diabetes drugs.
2. Zepbound Price Cuts: Volume vs. Margins
On December 1, Lilly announced it is cutting the cash price of its blockbuster obesity drug Zepbound for patients buying via its LillyDirect platform: the starting 2.5 mg dose now costs $299 per month (down from $349), with higher doses also reduced to the $399–$449 range. [13]
The move follows earlier price reductions on multi‑dose pens and comes as:
- Zepbound and diabetes twin Mounjaro (tirzepatide) have become the world’s top‑selling drug franchise, surpassing Merck’s Keytruda in sales. [14]
- Lilly wants to widen access and stay ahead of competitors like Novo Nordisk and new oral GLP‑1 entrants.
Investor angle: Price cuts should expand the addressable market and potentially reduce political heat, but they also tighten per‑patient margins—a central tension in the long‑term GLP‑1 story.
3. Adverum Acquisition: Buying a Gene‑Therapy Beachhead
Just yesterday, Lilly completed its tender offer for Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), acquiring roughly 64% of outstanding shares, with final closing expected on December 9, 2025 under their merger agreement. [15]
Deal highlights:
- Adverum’s lead asset, Ixo‑vec, is a Phase 3 gene therapy being developed as a one‑time intravitreal treatment for wet age‑related macular degeneration (wet AMD), potentially replacing frequent eye injections with a single dose. [16]
- The deal values Adverum at up to about $260 million, including $3.56 per share in cash plus contingent value rights (CVRs) worth up to $8.91 per share if key milestones are met. [17]
The transaction bolsters Lilly’s genetic medicines portfolio and opens a new front in ophthalmology, diversifying beyond its GLP‑1 engine.
4. Jaypirca’s Big Day at ASH: Strong CLL Data
At the American Society of Hematology (ASH) 2025 meeting, Lilly unveiled new Phase 3 data for Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL).
Key points from Jaypirca’s trials: [18]
- In the BRUIN CLL‑313 trial, Jaypirca cut the risk of disease progression or death by about 80% versus standard chemo‑immunotherapy (bendamustine + rituximab) in previously untreated CLL/SLL.
- At two years, around 93% of Jaypirca‑treated patients were alive without progression vs 71% in the comparator arm.
- A second Phase 3 trial, BRUIN CLL‑314, showed a higher response rate and strong progression‑free survival trend versus AbbVie and J&J’s Imbruvica, with lower rates of atrial fibrillation and flutter, a key safety concern for first‑generation BTK inhibitors.
Interestingly, Lilly’s oncology chief says the “sweet spot” for Jaypirca remains second‑line CLL, even though the first‑line data look competitive, positioning Jaypirca as the go‑to option after other BTK inhibitors fail or become intolerable. [19]
Why this matters: Jaypirca strengthens Lilly’s oncology franchise and is one of the key arguments that the company is more than a GLP‑1 story.
5. Upcoming Breast Cancer Data at SABCS on December 11
Tomorrow, December 11, Lilly will feature new breast‑cancer data at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium (SABCS), including a Poster Spotlight (PD5‑08) on circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) dynamics from the Phase 3 EMBER‑3 trial of Inluriyo (imlunestrant), its next‑generation endocrine therapy for ER+/HER2‑ advanced breast cancer. [20]
Lilly will also showcase additional Verzenio (abemaciclib) posters on early and advanced breast cancer. [21]
These updates won’t move the stock every tick, but they reinforce the depth of Lilly’s oncology pipeline, which is critical for sustaining growth beyond GLP‑1 drugs.
Wall Street’s View: Bullish Targets vs. “Priced for Perfection”
Fresh Analyst Calls
On December 10, Wells Fargo lifted its price target on LLY from $1,100 to $1,200 and reiterated an Overweight rating. [22]
GuruFocus’ summary of recent analyst moves shows:
- BMO Capital also raised its target to $1,200 (Outperform).
- Bernstein and Morgan Stanley now see $1,290–$1,300 per share, while other major brokers are clustered around $1,150–$1,200. [23]
Across about 30 analysts, the average 12‑month target sits near $1,050, implying mid‑single‑digit upside from today’s levels, while the highest estimate reaches $1,500. [24]
In other words, Wall Street remains firmly positive, but the easy money is widely seen as behind us.
Valuation Debate: Can Lilly Justify ~$1T?
A widely discussed analysis in Drug Discovery & Development argues Lilly is on track to overtake Merck and Pfizer to lead global pharma by revenue in 2026, helped by GLP‑1 sales, a projected 2025 revenue range of $63–$63.5 billion, and massive manufacturing investment. [25]
At the same time:
- The article questions whether an $800 billion–$1 trillion valuation can be justified without a decade of near‑flawless execution, warning that saturation in the GLP‑1 market, payer pushback, and safety or competition shocks could compress the multiple. [26]
- Lilly’s trailing P/E is around 48x, and the dividend yield is only about 0.6–0.7%, underscoring that investors are paying almost entirely for growth, not income. [27]
Skeptics Are Getting Louder
Not all commentary is glowing:
- A new Motley Fool piece, syndicated via Yahoo Finance, warns that while Eli Lilly is “the leader in the GLP‑1 weight‑loss space,” its “skyscraping valuation” and heavy reliance on a single drug class represent a hidden risk. [28]
- A Seeking Alpha article published today even suggests investors “skip the market darling Eli Lilly” and buy rival Novo Nordisk instead, arguing that Novo offers a more attractive risk‑reward profile given comparable GLP‑1 exposure but a lower valuation multiple. [29]
Bottom line: The Street is bullish on fundamentals—but increasingly split on whether the current share price fully bakes in the risks.
Competition in Obesity Drugs: Oral GLP‑1 Rivals Are Closing In
While Lilly builds out capacity for orforglipron, the race in oral GLP‑1 pills is heating up.
A report today in Benefits and Pensions Monitor highlights new data from Structure Therapeutics’ oral GLP‑1 pill aleniglipron, which achieved ≈11.3% weight loss at 36 weeks in a mid‑stage trial, with higher doses approaching 15.3%, putting it in the same ballpark as Lilly’s experimental pill in terms of efficacy. [30]
Analysts cited in the piece note:
- Tolerability (especially nausea and GI side effects) remains the key risk for oral GLP‑1s.
- Even so, the obesity drug market could reach $100–$150 billion annually by the early 2030s, with oral options increasingly important for long‑term cost and convenience. [31]
Add this to the mix:
- Pfizer is rebuilding its obesity franchise via deals for oral GLP‑1 candidates,
- Novo Nordisk has its own oral semaglutide programs, and
- Smaller biotech players like Viking Therapeutics are vying for their own slice of the pie. [32]
For Lilly investors, the message is clear: GLP‑1 leadership today doesn’t guarantee dominance forever, especially once orals become mainstream and price competition intensifies.
Macro Backdrop: Fed Cut Supports High‑Growth Names Like LLY
The macro environment turned more supportive today:
- The Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%–3.75%, its third cut of 2025, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that further hikes are unlikely in the near term. [33]
- The Dow rose about 1.1%, the S&P 500 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%, with the S&P 500 finishing just shy of a new all‑time high. [34]
- The 10‑year Treasury yield slipped to around 4.15%, easing pressure on long‑duration growth stocks. [35]
For richly valued names like Lilly, lower rates are a tailwind: they boost the present value of far‑off cash flows and can make high‑growth healthcare more attractive relative to bonds.
Key Things to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 11, 2025
Here’s a concise checklist for tomorrow’s pre‑market:
1. Follow‑Through on Today’s Move
- Does LLY hold above recent support in the high‑$970s to low‑$980s and keep pushing toward $1,000–1,020, or does profit‑taking resume after tonight’s mild bounce?
- Technical services such as StockInvest.us have recently upgraded LLY from Hold to “Buy candidate”, citing a generally positive trend and identifying $1,000+ as near‑term resistance with support in the $970s and lower bands around $925 and $825. [36]
2. Early Read‑Through From SABCS Posters
- Investors and specialists will parse Lilly’s ctDNA biomarker data from the EMBER‑3 trial (Poster PD5‑08) for Inluriyo (imlunestrant) as the poster spotlight kicks off Thursday morning in San Antonio. [37]
- Any signs that Inluriyo or Verzenio can further cement Lilly’s position in HR+/HER2‑ breast cancer could support the “diversified growth” narrative beyond GLP‑1 drugs.
3. Street Reaction to the Alabama Plant
- Expect more analyst notes in the morning on the $6B Huntsville plant, including:
- Updated capacity assumptions for orforglipron and other small‑molecule/peptide drugs.
- Debate over return on invested capital versus political and supply‑security benefits. [38]
If analysts view the megaproject as disciplined and demand‑driven, it could support the bull case. If they worry about over‑building or political strings, LLY could face multiple compression.
4. Integration Talk Around Adverum
- Watch for any additional commentary or media coverage in the morning around Lilly’s just‑completed Adverum acquisition:
- How aggressively will Lilly fund and position Ixo‑vec in wet AMD?
- Does the deal signal broader ambitions in gene therapy for age‑related diseases? [39]
5. Macro and Sector Flows
- Equity markets will still be digesting the Fed’s decision. If Thursday futures point to continued strength in the S&P 500 and healthcare, LLY could see additional inflows as a high‑quality growth anchor. [40]
- Conversely, if traders rotate into more cyclical or value names after the first rate‑cut pop, Lilly’s gains could stall near resistance, even with strong fundamentals.
What It All Means for Investors
Putting it together:
- Fundamentals:
- GLP‑1 assets Mounjaro and Zepbound are driving explosive revenue growth and higher guidance (full‑year revenue now seen at $63–$63.5B, up from $60–$62B), with Q3 sales of $17.6B, up 54% year‑over‑year. [41]
- Oncology and gene therapy (Jaypirca, Inluriyo, Verzenio, Ixo‑vec) are quietly building a second wave of growth. [42]
- Valuation and risk:
- LLY trades at premium multiples near a $1T valuation, with a modest dividend yield around 0.6–0.7%, leaving little margin for error if GLP‑1 growth slows, competition intensifies, or governments push harder on price. [43]
- Several analysts and commentators warn that the stock is increasingly “priced for perfection.” [44]
- Near‑term setup into December 11:
- The Fed tailwind, Alabama megaproject, Adverum deal and strong cancer data collectively support the bull case and help explain why the stock bounced today.
- At the same time, heightened competition in obesity drugs, ongoing price cuts, and valuation concerns mean volatility can cut both ways.
References
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