Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock After Hours on December 8, 2025: China Mounjaro Win, Dividend Hike and What to Watch Before Tuesday’s Open

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) spent Monday, December 8, 2025, digesting a wave of news: a major reimbursement win for Mounjaro in China, a 15% dividend hike, new leukemia drug data, and the return of Nobel laureate Carolyn Bertozzi to its board. At the same time, intensifying competition and price cuts in the weight‑loss drug market kept pressure on the stock.

By the closing bell, Lilly shares were trading just under the psychologically important $1,000 level, still near a trillion‑dollar valuation but roughly 10% below recent highs. ^[1]

Key takeaways for LLY before the December 9, 2025 open

Price action: LLY closed around $998 on Monday, down about 1.3% on the day, with an intraday range roughly between $989 and $1,014 and volume a bit below its recent average. This marked seven straight down sessions since November 28. ^[2]
Still a giant: Even after the pullback, Lilly trades only about 10% below its 52‑week high near $1,112 and roughly 60% above its 52‑week low around $624, keeping its market value near $950–$960 billion. ^[3]
Fundamentals on fire: Q3 revenue jumped 54% year‑over‑year to about $17.6 billion, driven by GLP‑1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, with net income up more than 400% and operating margin near 48%. ^[4]
Fresh catalysts on December 8:
- Mounjaro added to China’s national insurance list (NRDL) for type 2 diabetes starting January 1, 2026 – huge volume potential, but at lower negotiated prices. ^[5]
- First‑quarter 2026 dividend raised 15% to $1.73 per share, signaling confidence in long‑term earnings power. ^[6]
- Nobel Prize–winning chemist Carolyn Bertozzi re‑joined Lilly’s board. ^[7]
- Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) matched J&J’s Imbruvica in a head‑to‑head leukemia trial with a favorable safety profile. ^[8]
GLP‑1 competition and pricing are the main overhangs:
- Lilly recently cut self‑pay prices for Zepbound to $299–$449 per month on LillyDirect. ^[9]
- Structure Therapeutics’ oral obesity pill showed up to 11.3%–15.3% weight loss in a mid‑stage study, highlighting intensifying competition in GLP‑1 therapies. ^[10]
Street still bullish: Wall Street consensus remains “Buy/Strong Buy” with average 12‑month price targets in roughly the $1,075–$1,130 range, implying high‑single‑ to low‑double‑digit upside from Monday’s close. ^[11]

How Eli Lilly stock traded on December 8, 2025

On Monday, LLY opened just above $1,010, briefly tested the low $1,010s, then slid to an intraday low just under $989 before stabilizing and closing near $998, down roughly 1.3% on the session. ^[12]

This decline extended a seven‑day losing streak that began on November 28, taking the stock from about $1,075 to below $1,000 – a drop of roughly 7% over that period and about 10% off the recent high near $1,112. ^[13]

Despite the pullback, Lilly remains one of the market’s dominant mega‑caps:

52‑week range: roughly $624–$1,112. ^[14]
Market value: around $950+ billion, after briefly surpassing $1 trillion in November – the first pharmaceutical company to do so. ^[15]

After the bell on December 8, after‑hours trading was relatively quiet, with quotes hovering close to the regular‑session close, suggesting investors are still weighing Monday’s heavy news flow rather than reacting in a panic. ^[16]

Why LLY is under pressure despite blockbuster fundamentals

1. A huge GLP‑1 franchise – and high expectations

Lilly’s recent earnings underline just how dependent the story has become on incretin‑based therapies:

Q3 2025 revenue: about $17.6 billion, up 54% year‑over‑year.
Mounjaro (diabetes): roughly $6.5 billion in quarterly sales, more than doubling year‑on‑year.
Zepbound (obesity): about $3.6 billion, up nearly 180%.
Lilly raised 2025 guidance to around $63–$63.5 billion in revenue and $23.00–$23.70 in non‑GAAP EPS, with operating margin near 48% and a trailing P/E close to 49–50x. ^[17]

In other words, GLP‑1 drugs are now the growth engine. That’s great when the market is focused on upside – but it also makes LLY highly sensitive to any hint of pricing pressure or new competition.

2. Zepbound price cuts unsettle margin‑focused investors

Earlier this month, Lilly cut cash‑pay prices for Zepbound single‑dose vials sold through its direct‑to‑consumer LillyDirect platform:

2.5 mg starting dose: $299 per month (down from $349)
5 mg: $399 (down from $499)
Higher doses: $449, also reduced from $499 ^[18]

Strategically, this opens Zepbound to more uninsured or under‑insured patients and aligns with recent pricing commitments to the U.S. government for GLP‑1 drugs. But near‑term, investors have interpreted these cuts as a potential drag on margins, helping explain why Lilly’s stock dipped following the announcement and has remained heavy since. ^[19]

3. New GLP‑1 competitors – especially oral pills

On Monday, Structure Therapeutics reported mid‑stage data showing its oral GLP‑1 obesity pill delivered up to 11.3% weight loss in one study and 15.3% at higher doses over 36 weeks, sending its shares more than 140% higher. ^[20]

While tolerability issues (notably nausea and vomiting) still look somewhat worse than for Lilly’s own oral candidate orforglipron, and large Phase 3 trials won’t begin until mid‑2026, the headlines reinforced a key message for the market:

The GLP‑1 race is getting more crowded, especially in oral therapies.

Health‑care sector roundups on Monday highlighted intensified competition in obesity drugs as a reason major incumbents like Lilly and Novo Nordisk traded lower even as small‑cap challengers soared. ^[21]

4. Macro backdrop and profit‑taking from the $1 trillion milestone

At the index level, U.S. stocks were modestly weaker Monday as investors looked ahead to the next Federal Reserve meeting and a heavy macro data calendar. Healthcare lagged, weighed down by obesity‑drug names. ^[22]

Meanwhile, Lilly is coming off a dramatic run:

Shares have gone from under $100 in 2018 to around $1,000 today, powered by GLP‑1 demand. ^[23]
The company briefly topped $1 trillion in market cap in November, a first for pharma. ^[24]

Given that backdrop, some of the recent weakness looks like plain profit‑taking in a stock that now trades at one of the richer valuations in big pharma.

Fresh December 8 company news investors are digesting

1. Mounjaro added to China’s national insurance list – a big volume lever

The biggest strategic headline on Monday was that China will add Mounjaro to its national reimbursement drug list (NRDL) for type 2 diabetes starting January 1, 2026. ^[25]

Key points:

Inclusion on the NRDL makes Mounjaro eligible for state health insurance coverage in a country of roughly 1.4 billion people, dramatically expanding potential access.
But NRDL inclusion typically comes with heavy price discounts, which can offset some of the benefit of higher volume. Analysts note it may pressure local competitors such as Innovent’s mazdutide, and could reshape GLP‑1 pricing across China. ^[26]

For LLY, the China news is strategically positive – it strengthens its global GLP‑1 footprint and adds another large demand pool. Short‑term, however, investors are still modeling how much price Lilly may have had to concede to win the listing.

2. Dividend raised 15% for Q1 2026

Lilly’s board declared a first‑quarter 2026 dividend of $1.73 per share, up from $1.50 previously – a 15% increase and the latest in a long streak of dividend hikes. ^[27]

At Monday’s close near $998, that equates to an annualized yield of about 0.7% – modest in absolute terms, but a clear signal of management confidence in long‑term cash flows given the capital‑intensive manufacturing ramp underway for GLP‑1 drugs.

3. Nobel laureate Carolyn Bertozzi returns to the board

Lilly also announced that Carolyn Bertozzi, a 2022 Nobel Prize winner in Chemistry for her work in click and bioorthogonal chemistry and a professor at Stanford, is re‑joining the company’s board of directors. ^[28]

She is expected to serve on committees overseeing science and technology as well as ethics and compliance – areas that are increasingly important as Lilly’s pipeline expands and regulators scrutinize pricing and marketing practices.

For investors, adding a scientist of Bertozzi’s stature reinforces the perception of Lilly as a research‑driven company with strong governance around its R&D engine.

4. Jaypirca leukemia study hits its endpoint

Over the weekend and into Monday coverage, Lilly highlighted results from a head‑to‑head Phase 3 trial in which its non‑covalent BTK inhibitor Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) matched J&J’s blockbuster Imbruvica (ibrutinib) in treating certain chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL) patients, while showing safety advantages on some measures. ^[29]

While Jaypirca is unlikely to move the needle anywhere near as much as GLP‑1 drugs, the data:

Support label expansions and potential share gains in BTK‑inhibitor markets.
Help diversify Lilly’s growth story beyond obesity and diabetes.

Wall Street’s view after Monday’s close

Despite the recent pullback, analysts remain broadly bullish:

Consensus rating: Most major brokers rate LLY “Buy” or “Strong Buy.”
Average 12‑month price target: around $1,075–$1,130, depending on the dataset, implying roughly 8–13% upside from Monday’s close. ^[30]
Target range: Some houses have targets above $1,150–$1,200, while the lowest published targets cluster around the mid‑$800s, reflecting valuation concerns but not a collapsed growth thesis. ^[31]

Recent highlights:

Guggenheim recently reiterated a Buy and raised its target to about $1,163, citing “another impressive year” and continued GLP‑1 momentum. ^[32]
Zacks has flagged LLY as a top growth stock, pointing to multiple upward earnings estimate revisions since its Q3 report. ^[33]

At the same time, commentators are clear about the trade‑off: Lilly’s GLP‑1 franchise gives it best‑in‑class growth, but at a valuation (around 49x trailing earnings) that leaves less room for error. ^[34]

What to watch before the market opens on December 9, 2025

Here are the key themes and levels to monitor as traders set up for Tuesday’s session:

1. Does LLY hold or reclaim the $1,000 level?

With Monday’s close just under $1,000 and an intraday low around $989, those levels will be closely watched:

Above ~$1,000: would suggest the market is comfortable that the China NRDL news and Zepbound price cuts are manageable trade‑offs for long‑term volume growth.
A break below the high‑$980s: could invite additional profit‑taking and algorithmic selling after seven declining sessions.

Short‑term traders will be looking to early‑morning liquidity to see whether buyers step in near recent lows or wait for a deeper pullback.

2. Follow‑through on Mounjaro China headlines

Expect more analyst notes and client calls overnight and into Tuesday parsing the China reimbursement decision:

Watch for sell‑side models that quantify the trade‑off between lower prices and potential share gains versus Novo Nordisk and Innovent. ^[35]
Any commentary from management or major Chinese partners could influence sentiment, especially around off‑label obesity use that analysts already anticipate.

If the Street leans toward “volume win outweighs pricing headwind,” LLY could see a relief bounce.

3. GLP‑1 competition narrative

Monday’s action was shaped partly by Structure Therapeutics’ pill data and broader concerns that more competitors will chip away at Lilly’s dominant share of an obesity market expected to exceed $100 billion annually next decade. ^[36]

Before Tuesday’s open, investors will be watching for:

Additional expert commentary comparing Structure’s aleniglipron to Lilly’s orforglipron and Novo’s oral candidates.
Any fresh headlines around manufacturing capacity, supply constraints, or safety for GLP‑1 drugs across the industry.

A softening of the “new competitor shock” narrative could help stabilize LLY and Novo; more bullish commentary on rival pills could extend pressure.

4. Sector flows and macro headlines

With the Fed meeting looming and indices near record territory, sector rotation remains a big driver:

If Tuesday’s futures indicate a risk‑off tone or weakness in healthcare broadly, LLY could remain under pressure despite company‑specific positives.
Conversely, any shift back into defensives and high‑quality growth might benefit Lilly given its strong earnings profile.

Investors will also be watching for any new macro headlines (inflation data, Fed commentary leaks, political developments) that could move yields and, by extension, high‑multiple growth names like LLY.

5. Options and positioning into year‑end

LLY is a favorite vehicle for options traders, especially around GLP‑1 headlines and central‑bank events. Elevated options volume:

Can magnify intraday swings as dealers hedge.
May cause sharp moves if the stock breaks key levels and triggers stop‑loss orders or options‑related flows.

For longer‑term holders, the takeaway is that short‑term volatility may not reflect changes in the business, but rather positioning and gamma dynamics into year‑end.

Bigger picture: why LLY still commands a premium

Even after the latest sell‑off, the bullish long‑term thesis many investors cite looks roughly like this:

Dominant GLP‑1 portfolio: Lilly controls an estimated mid‑50s share of the U.S. obesity market and around 60% of injectable obesity and diabetes prescriptions, with forecasts for Mounjaro to reach ~$18–23 billion in annual sales by 2026 and Zepbound to exceed $18 billion. ^[37]
Exploding GLP‑1 market size: Various industry estimates see global incretin sales reaching $100+ billion annually by 2030, leaving room for multiple winners – but giving incumbents like Lilly a particularly big runway. ^[38]
Deep pipeline and diversification: Beyond obesity and diabetes, Lilly has promising assets in Alzheimer’s, oncology (including Jaypirca), immunology, and cardiovascular disease. ^[39]
Operational execution: With 54% revenue growth, soaring margins, and rising guidance, Lilly has consistently out‑executed expectations, which helps justify a premium multiple versus peers. ^[40]

The bear case, in contrast, focuses on:

Valuation risk if GLP‑1 growth slows or more competition appears sooner than expected.
Pricing pressure from governments (including China and U.S. Medicare/Medicaid deals) and Lilly’s own moves to cut prices while expanding access. ^[41]
Concentration risk: GLP‑1 products now account for well over half of total revenue, making the company more vulnerable to any safety, regulatory, or competitive shock in that category. ^[42]

FAQ: Eli Lilly stock heading into December 9, 2025

Is Eli Lilly (LLY) stock a buy after the latest pullback?
That depends on your risk profile and time horizon. Fundamentally, Lilly is delivering exceptional growth and profitability, and Street analysts still see upside from current levels. However, the stock trades at a rich valuation relative to most pharma names and is heavily reliant on GLP‑1 drugs, so it may be more volatile than a typical defensive healthcare stock. This article is not personalized investment advice; consider speaking with a qualified advisor before making decisions.

What is Lilly’s dividend yield after the increase?
With the first‑quarter 2026 dividend set at $1.73 per share, the annualized payout is $6.92. At Monday’s close near $998, that’s a yield of roughly 0.7%, so the stock is still primarily a growth story rather than an income play. ^[43]

Is GLP‑1 competition a serious threat to Lilly’s dominance?
Competitors like Novo Nordisk and newcomers such as Structure Therapeutics are real threats, especially in oral formulations. But Lilly currently has a massive first‑mover and scale advantage, with multiple GLP‑1 assets, huge manufacturing investments, and a rapidly expanding global footprint. Most analysts expect Lilly to remain a key winner, though the path may be bumpier as pricing and competition intensify. ^[44]

Bottom line for Tuesday’s open

Going into the December 9, 2025 session, Eli Lilly sits at the crossroads of near‑term sentiment and long‑term structural growth:

Short‑term, the stock is working through profit‑taking, price‑cut jitters, and competition headlines after a historic run.
Long‑term, the China Mounjaro decision, dividend hike, board refresh, and positive Jaypirca data all reinforce the idea that Lilly is still building, not cashing out on its GLP‑1‑driven transformation.

Whether LLY bounces back above $1,000 or extends its losing streak on Tuesday will likely come down to how investors weigh these powerful but conflicting signals.