As Wall Street heads into Monday’s session, Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) sits at the center of several big storylines: Chinese market access for its Alzheimer’s drug, a fresh FDA decision and new data for cancer therapy Jaypirca, price cuts for blockbuster obesity drug Zepbound, and a wave of institutional positioning.
Below is a structured look at what matters for Eli Lilly stock before the U.S. market opens on Monday, December 8, 2025.
1. Where LLY Stock Stands After a Choppy Week
- Last close (Friday, Dec. 5, 2025): $1,010.31, down 0.41% on the day. After-hours trading nudged the price to about $1,014.40. [1]
- Over the last week, Lilly has pulled back from its late‑November record high around $1,112. MarketWatch notes that on Thursday (Dec. 4) the stock logged its sixth straight daily loss and sat roughly 9% below its 52‑week high. [2]
- Valuation snapshot: At Friday’s close, StockAnalysis shows a market cap around $900+ billion, trailing twelve‑month EPS of about $20.44, a P/E near 49, and forward P/E around 32. Dividend yield is modest at roughly 0.6% on an annualized $6.00 payout. [3]
In short, LLY heads into Monday as a mega‑cap growth stock that has cooled slightly but still trades at a premium multiple near all‑time highs.
2. China Opens a New Channel for Kisunla and Other High‑Value Drugs
One of the most important weekend headlines for Lilly is coming out of China.
Chinese authorities have rolled out the country’s first “innovative commercial health insurance drug list”, a catalog designed for high‑priced therapies that are too expensive for the state basic medical insurance. [4]
Key points for Lilly:
- Lilly’s Alzheimer’s drug Kisunla (donanemab) is included on this new list alongside Eisai’s Leqembi. Both target early Alzheimer’s disease. [5]
- In total, 19 medicines made the list, covering cancer, rare diseases and Alzheimer’s, with multinationals like Eli Lilly, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson agreeing to price discounts (often 15–50%, materially less severe than the ~60% average cuts usually demanded for China’s national reimbursement list). [6]
Why it matters for LLY stock
- It provides a new, more profitable access route into China for high‑value drugs like Kisunla, without the extreme price pressure of the national reimbursement system.
- Alzheimer’s is a huge, under‑served market; early inclusion in this new channel signals regulatory goodwill and potential volume growth over the medium term.
- The move also reinforces the narrative that Lilly is not just an obesity/diabetes story, but a broader neurological and oncology franchise player.
Investors will be watching Monday to see whether the market prices in a “China premium” for Kisunla’s long‑term sales opportunity.
3. Jaypirca’s Big Week: FDA Label Expansion and Strong ASH Data
Lilly’s BTK inhibitor Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) has just had a one‑two punch of positive news:
3.1. Expanded FDA Indication in CLL/SLL
On December 3, 2025, the U.S. FDA approved an expanded indication for Jaypirca in adults with relapsed or refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) or small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL) who have previously been treated with a covalent BTK inhibitor. [7]
Key takeaways:
- Jaypirca is now the first and only approved non‑covalent (reversible) BTK inhibitor for this population. [8]
- Approval is based on the BRUIN CLL‑321 Phase 3 trial, which showed that pirtobrutinib significantly improved progression‑free survival compared with older regimens in heavily pre‑treated patients. [9]
This solidifies Jaypirca’s role in later‑line CLL/SLL and helps transition it from accelerated to traditional approval.
3.2. New Head‑to‑Head Data vs Imbruvica at ASH
On December 7, 2025, at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) meeting, BioPharma Dive reported new data from the BRUIN‑CLL‑314 trial comparing Jaypirca directly to Imbruvica (AbbVie/J&J). [10]
Highlights from the interim analysis:
- Across all 662 patients with CLL/SLL, response rates were higher with Jaypirca: about 87% vs 79% for Imbruvica, meeting the goal of at least non‑inferiority and hinting at superiority. [11]
- In patients whose disease had already progressed on prior therapy, Jaypirca again showed higher response rates (≈84% vs 75%). [12]
- Early data suggest Jaypirca reduced the risk of disease progression or death by ~43% in the overall population. [13]
- Safety profile: common hematologic and infectious side effects were similar between arms, but Jaypirca had lower rates of hypertension and arrhythmias, issues that have weighed on Imbruvica’s adoption. [14]
Revenue context:
- Imbruvica still generated over $4 billion in the first nine months of the year for J&J and AbbVie combined. Jaypirca, by contrast, brought in around $358 million over the same period. [15]
If future data hold up and guideline updates follow, Jaypirca could gradually capture share from a multi‑billion‑dollar incumbent, adding a meaningful second growth leg beyond GLP‑1 weight‑loss drugs.
4. Zepbound Price Cuts: Pressure on Margins, Push for Scale
The other big theme weighing on LLY shares is pricing for obesity blockbuster Zepbound.
On December 1, Lilly announced it would cut the cash prices of single‑dose vials of Zepbound sold via its LillyDirect platform: [16]
- 2.5 mg starter dose: now about $299 per month (down from $349).
- 5 mg dose: reduced to $399 (from $499).
- Higher doses drop to about $449 per month (down from $499).
These cuts follow earlier reductions on multi‑dose pens that are still awaiting FDA approval. Reuters and other outlets frame the move as an attempt to improve affordability and widen access, particularly for cash‑pay patients shut out by insurance hurdles. [17]
Zepbound (for obesity) and Mounjaro (for diabetes) have:
- Helped make tirzepatide the world’s top‑selling drug by revenue. [18]
- Propelled Lilly to become the first drugmaker to briefly hit a $1 trillion market cap this year. [19]
Market reaction:
- News of price cuts contributed to a multi‑day slide that left LLY roughly 8–9% below its recent high as of late last week. [20]
- Commentary from outlets like The Motley Fool characterizes the move as a classic “short‑term pain, long‑term land‑grab” trade: lower per‑patient revenue now in exchange for bigger market share and better payer relationships, especially after a recent deal with the U.S. government to lower GLP‑1 costs in federal programs. [21]
For Monday’s open, traders will be balancing:
- Near‑term margin pressure and a stock that already trades at a rich multiple
against - The chance that more aggressive pricing locks in years of volume growth in what could be a $100+ billion global obesity market over time.
5. Counterfeit GLP‑1 and Retatrutide: Regulatory and Reputational Risk
Another story to keep in mind is the surge in counterfeit and unlicensed weight‑loss injections, including fakes that reference Lilly’s pipeline and marketed drugs.
On December 7, The Guardian reported that Alluvi Healthcare Limited, a company linked to an October raid on a clandestine weight‑loss jab factory in Northampton, is still selling unlicensed products, including counterfeit versions of retatrutide — an experimental triple‑agonist injection being developed by Eli Lilly that has not been approved anywhere. [22]
Background:
- The U.K. Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) and police previously dismantled an illicit facility producing unlicensed pens labeled as containing retatrutide and tirzepatide (the active ingredient in Mounjaro and Zepbound). Thousands of empty pens, raw ingredients and over 2,000 pre‑filled pens were seized in what authorities called the world’s largest haul of fake weight‑loss jabs. [23]
- Customers reported severe side effects from these black‑market products, and the Guardian investigation describes continued sales via websites and Telegram channels disguised as “fitness programmes.” [24]
Implications for LLY:
- There is no suggestion Lilly is involved in these illegal operations, but the stories underline the brand and safety risks that come with being the most visible player in a red‑hot drug category.
- Regulators and policymakers may respond with tighter oversight, new warning campaigns, or stricter channel controls, all of which could influence how fast the legitimate market can scale.
For investors, this is a reputational and regulatory overhang rather than an immediate earnings issue, but it’s part of the risk profile around GLP‑1 obesity drugs.
6. Institutional Money: Big Funds Still Buying, With Selective Profit‑Taking
Fresh 13F‑style institutional ownership updates published on December 7 highlight ongoing interest in Lilly from large investors. MarketBeat’s coverage shows: [25]
- CalPERS (California Public Employees’ Retirement System)
- Increased its stake by 16.3% in Q2, purchasing 281,862 additional shares.
- Now holds about 2.01 million shares, roughly 0.21% of Lilly and about 1% of CalPERS’ portfolio, making LLY its 14th‑largest holding, valued near $1.57 billion at the time of filing. [26]
- Cerity Partners LLC
- Bought 7,068 shares, boosting its position by 1.2% to roughly 607,000 shares valued around $472 million.
- LLY is now Cerity’s 19th‑largest holding, at about 0.8% of its portfolio. [27]
- Bollard Group LLC
- Increased its position by 4.7% to about 251,489 shares, worth roughly $196 million.
- LLY now represents 4.5% of Bollard’s portfolio, its second‑largest holding. [28]
- DNCA Finance
- Took profits, cutting its stake by 74.4%, selling about 6,100 shares and ending Q2 with 2,100 shares worth around $1.64 million. [29]
Across the shareholder base, over 80% of Lilly’s shares are held by institutions and hedge funds, according to recent MarketBeat and other data. [30]
The signal heading into Monday: large, long‑term investors remain heavily committed, though some smaller managers are clearly trimming exposure after a huge multi‑year run.
7. Earnings, Balance Sheet and Dividend Quality
From a fundamentals standpoint, Lilly’s latest quarter and balance sheet are still a major support for the bull case.
7.1. Q3 2025 Results and Guidance
MarketBeat’s summary of Lilly’s third‑quarter 2025 report (released Oct. 30) highlights: [31]
- EPS: $7.02 vs consensus ~$6.42.
- Revenue: $17.6 billion vs $16.09 billion expected, up about 53.9% year‑over‑year.
- Net margin: roughly 31%; return on equity over 100%, reflecting the high profitability of the GLP‑1 franchise.
- FY 2025 EPS guidance:$23.00–$23.70, broadly aligned with sell‑side expectations around $23.5.
StockAnalysis’s fundamentals echo this strength, showing trailing‑twelve‑month revenue of about $59.4 billion and net income of roughly $18.4 billion as of the latest data. [32]
7.2. Dividend Quality vs Yield
ChartMill’s December 6 analysis scores Lilly with: [33]
- Dividend Rating: 7 (on its scale)
- Profitability Rating: 9
- Financial Health Rating: 5 (solid but not flawless)
The article argues that Lilly’s dividend story is about steady, sustainable growth, not headline yield. With an annual payout of $6.00 and a yield under 1%, the company is clearly prioritizing reinvestment into growth, but still signaling confidence with regular increases.
For income investors, this is a quality‑over‑quantity dividend anchored in strong earnings power.
8. What Wall Street Thinks: Targets and Valuation Debate
Opinions are starting to split between “own it at any price” and “great company, stretched stock.”
8.1. Consensus Ratings and Targets
Two widely‑cited aggregators show slightly different but broadly bullish pictures:
- MarketBeat:
- 26 analysts over the last 12 months.
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”, with 3 “Strong Buy,” 17 “Buy,” and 6 “Hold” ratings.
- Average 12‑month price target: about $1,087, implying around 8% upside from roughly $1,009 at the time of calculation (high target $1,300, low $800). [34]
- StockAnalysis:
- 18 analysts included.
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy.”
- Average target: around $1,063 (≈5% upside), with a range from $700 to $1,500. [35]
Recent target moves:
- BMO Capital lifted its target from $1,100 to $1,200 (Buy) on December 4.
- Morgan Stanley raised from $1,171 to $1,290 (Buy) in late November.
- Bernstein hiked from $1,100 to $1,300, also retaining a Buy. [36]
8.2. Bulls vs Bears
- Bullish takes (from outlets such as The Motley Fool) argue Lilly could join the $2 trillion market‑cap club by 2028, driven by sustained GLP‑1 growth and new franchises in Alzheimer’s and oncology. [37]
- More cautious voices (Invezz, various commentators on CNBC and elsewhere) warn that, after a massive run, it could be hard for LLY to move significantly higher in the near term, especially if expectations around obesity drugs or China pricing get reset. [38]
Net‑net, Wall Street still leans bullish, but upside in the next 12 months is seen as single‑digit on average, with considerable dispersion depending on how the GLP‑1 story evolves.
9. Beyond GLP‑1: Pipeline and M&A Context
A September in‑depth review from Labiotech frames Lilly’s recent moves as a deliberate attempt to build multiple growth pillars beyond diabetes and obesity: [39]
- Neurodegeneration: Full U.S. approval for Kisunla (donanemab) in early Alzheimer’s in 2024 gave Lilly an important foothold in a high‑profile, high‑risk area.
- Inflammatory bowel disease: The $3.2 billion acquisition of Morphic (MORF‑057 oral integrin inhibitor) plus expansion of Omvoh into Crohn’s disease bolsters its immunology/gastroenterology franchise. [40]
- Radiopharma and oncology: Deals for POINT Biopharma, Aktis Oncology and Radionetics give Lilly assets and manufacturing capacity in radiopharmaceuticals and precision oncology. [41]
For Monday’s open, these longer‑term pipeline stories probably won’t move the tape immediately, but they anchor the multi‑year growth narrative that supports Lilly’s premium valuation.
10. Key Things to Watch for LLY on December 8, 2025
Heading into Monday’s U.S. session, here are the main watchpoints for Eli Lilly stock:
- Market Reaction to China’s Insurance List
- Does the street price in incremental revenue for Kisunla from inclusion on China’s innovative commercial insurance catalog? [42]
- Follow‑through on Jaypirca News
- Investors may reassess Lilly’s oncology segment after the FDA label expansion and positive ASH head‑to‑head data against Imbruvica. Any sell‑side notes early Monday could influence sentiment. [43]
- GLP‑1 Pricing Narrative
- Expect continued debate over whether Zepbound price cuts mark a new normal for margins or a strategic move to cement dominance. Any fresh commentary from management or policymakers could move the stock. [44]
- Regulatory Noise Around Counterfeits
- Further media or regulator comments on illegal retatrutide/tirzepatide pens may not change fundamentals immediately but can affect risk perception and political scrutiny. [45]
- Fund Flows and Positioning
- New money from mega‑funds like CalPERS, Cerity Partners and Bollard Group contrasts with profit‑taking by DNCA and others. Watch for any additional institutional disclosures or options activity indicating a shift in positioning. [46]
- Valuation Sensitivity
- With LLY trading at roughly 49x trailing earnings and 32x forward earnings, even small changes in GLP‑1 growth expectations or macro sentiment can produce outsized price swings. [47]
11. Risk Checklist for Investors
Without giving personalized advice, it’s worth keeping a simple risk checklist in mind:
- Concentration risk: A large share of revenue and narrative is tied to two GLP‑1 drugs (Mounjaro and Zepbound). Any safety signal, supply issue, or new competitor could hit the stock hard. [48]
- Pricing and policy risk: Ongoing negotiations with governments and insurers (U.S., China, EU) could lead to margin compression over time, despite growing volumes. [49]
- Pipeline and execution risk: Jaypirca, Kisunla and the broader pipeline must continue to deliver; oncology and Alzheimer’s are areas with high attrition rates and safety scrutiny. [50]
- Valuation risk: The stock bakes in a lot of success already. Commentators such as Len Yaffee have warned near‑term upside may be limited after such a strong run. [51]
As always, anyone considering trading or investing in LLY should align decisions with their own risk tolerance, time horizon and financial objectives, and consider consulting a licensed financial professional.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. trial.medpath.com, 5. www.business-standard.com, 6. www.ainvest.com, 7. investor.lilly.com, 8. www.drugs.com, 9. www.pharmacytimes.com, 10. www.biopharmadive.com, 11. www.biopharmadive.com, 12. www.biopharmadive.com, 13. www.biopharmadive.com, 14. www.biopharmadive.com, 15. www.biopharmadive.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.marketwatch.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. www.theguardian.com, 23. www.gov.uk, 24. www.theguardian.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. www.chartmill.com, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. stockanalysis.com, 36. stockanalysis.com, 37. finance.yahoo.com, 38. longbridge.com, 39. www.labiotech.eu, 40. www.labiotech.eu, 41. www.labiotech.eu, 42. www.business-standard.com, 43. investor.lilly.com, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. www.theguardian.com, 46. www.marketbeat.com, 47. stockanalysis.com, 48. stockanalysis.com, 49. www.reuters.com, 50. www.biopharmadive.com, 51. longbridge.com
