Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Near $1 Trillion: Zepbound Price Cuts, New $6B Plant and 2026 Dividend Hike – Is It Still a Buy?

Updated: December 10, 2025

Key takeaways

• LLY trades around $980 per share today, after briefly topping $1,050 and becoming the first-ever $1 trillion healthcare company, powered by its obesity and diabetes drugs. ^[1]
• Q3 2025 revenue jumped 54% year‑over‑year to $17.6 billion, with obesity drug Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro contributing over $10 billion combined. ^[2]
• Lilly just announced a $6 billion manufacturing plant in Alabama to produce orforglipron, its oral GLP‑1 weight‑loss pill, as part of a $27 billion U.S. expansion. ^[3]
• Zepbound prices were cut on Lilly’s own platform earlier this month, following a drug‑pricing deal with the Trump administration, potentially expanding access but pressuring margins. ^[4]
• The company completed its acquisition of Adverum Biotechnologies yesterday, adding a gene therapy candidate for wet age‑related macular degeneration (wAMD) to its eye‑care pipeline. ^[5]
• Wall Street remains bullish: recent aggregations show a 12‑month price target around $1,090–$1,100 with highs up to $1,300–$1,500, implying modest double‑digit upside from current levels. ^[6]
• Valuation is stretched: LLY trades at roughly 49x trailing earnings and ~30x forward earnings, far above typical big‑pharma multiples, and some models flag it as significantly overvalued. ^[7]
• Dividend just increased 15% for Q1 2026, from $1.50 to $1.73 per share, payable March 10, 2026. ^[8]

LLY stock today: price, performance and valuation snapshot

As of mid‑day trading on December 10, 2025, Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) is changing hands at around $980 per share, down slightly on the day and just below its recent all‑time high above $1,050. That price values Lilly at roughly $930–$1,000+ billion in market cap, depending on intraday moves, placing it in the same league as mega‑cap tech giants and making it the first healthcare company ever to cross the $1 trillion mark. ^[9]

Year to date, Reuters reports that LLY shares are up more than 39%, driven primarily by insatiable demand for its GLP‑1‑based obesity and diabetes drugs. ^[10]

On valuation:

• Public.com data put Lilly’s trailing P/E at about 49.3x as of December 8. ^[11]
• GuruFocus estimates forward P/E around 30.4x as of today. ^[12]
• FinanceCharts shows similar figures, with a trailing P/E around 49 and forward P/E in the high 20s. ^[13]

That is 2–3x the typical big‑pharma multiple, which often sits in the mid‑teens, and even after this year’s earnings upgrades, Lilly still prices in years of continued hyper‑growth.

Some intrinsic value models are even more conservative. One value‑investing site calculates a “fair value” of about $243 per share, implying over 70% downside from today’s price if multiples revert to its historical norms. ^[14]

Whether Lilly deserves that premium is the core question for investors in December 2025.

Earnings momentum: obesity and diabetes drugs power a blowout 2025

Lilly’s Q3 2025 results, released October 30, show how dramatically the business has changed in just a few years. ^[15]

• Revenue: $17.6 billion, up 54% year‑over‑year.
• Reported EPS: $6.21 vs $1.07 a year ago.
• Non‑GAAP EPS: $7.02, up from $1.18.
• Key products revenue: $11.98 billion, led by GLP‑1 drugs.

The stars of the show are the incretin portfolio:

• Mounjaro (tirzepatide for diabetes)
  • Q3 revenue: $6.52 billion, up 109% year‑over‑year. ^[16]
• Zepbound (tirzepatide for obesity and sleep apnea)
  • Q3 revenue: $3.59 billion, up 185% year‑over‑year in the U.S. ^[17]

Together, tirzepatide‑based products account for over half of total company revenue. Reuters notes Zepbound and Mounjaro have become the world’s best‑selling drug franchise, surpassing even Merck’s cancer blockbuster Keytruda. ^[18]

On the back of this performance, Lilly raised full‑year 2025 guidance:

• Revenue: now $63.0–$63.5 billion, up from $60–$62 billion prior.
• Reported EPS:$21.80–$22.50.
• Non‑GAAP EPS:$23.00–$23.70. ^[19]

Those numbers imply mid‑40s percentage revenue growth and extremely high profitability for a company already approaching $1 trillion in value.

Zepbound price cuts: growth vs. political pressure

The hottest near‑term news around Lilly’s stock is pricing and access for Zepbound, its flagship obesity injectable.

On December 1, Lilly announced meaningful price cuts on single‑dose Zepbound vials sold via its LillyDirect platform:

• Starting dose (2.5 mg): cut from $349 to $299 per month.
• 5 mg dose: from $499 down to $399.
• Higher doses ceiling: $449 per month, down from $499. ^[20]

These moves followed a November deal with the Trump administration to reduce GLP‑1 drug costs for Medicare/Medicaid patients and cash‑pay consumers. ^[21]

What it means for the stock:

• Bullish angle:
  • Lower prices could broaden access, support higher volumes, and blunt regulatory threats that the company is profiteering from a public‑health crisis.
  • With obesity drugs still supply‑constrained in some areas, investors may see pricing concessions as a trade‑off for long‑term market dominance.
• Bearish angle:
  • The cuts highlight political and payor pressure on the GLP‑1 class.
  • If similar concessions spread to commercial payors and international markets, margin compression could be meaningful, especially given how concentrated Lilly’s profits are in these drugs.

For now, the market appears comfortable: LLY has held near record highs even after the cuts, with Reuters noting the stock is still up nearly 40% in 2025. ^[22]

New $6 billion Alabama plant: manufacturing to match the hype

Yesterday and today, Lilly and local officials unveiled one of the company’s biggest industrial projects ever: a $6 billion active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) facility in Huntsville, Alabama. ^[23]

Key details from Reuters and Axios:

• The plant will produce small‑molecule synthetic and peptide medicines, including orforglipron, Lilly’s first oral GLP‑1 weight‑loss drug, which the company expects to get U.S. approval as early as 2026. ^[24]
• Construction is set to begin in 2026 with completion targeted for 2032, creating about 3,000 construction jobs and 450 permanent roles. ^[25]
• The site is part of a $27 billion U.S. manufacturing expansion, Lilly’s third major new U.S. plant, focused on onshoring API production amid potential import tariffs and supply‑chain risk. ^[26]
• The plant will use AI, automation and digitally integrated monitoring systems, with goals around carbon neutrality. ^[27]

From an investor’s standpoint, this is significant because:

• It addresses longstanding GLP‑1 supply constraints that have periodically capped sales.
• It underlines Lilly’s confidence in the durability of obesity/diabetes demand well into the 2030s.
• It reinforces a political narrative of “made in America” essential medicines, helpful given the current focus on drug prices and trade.

M&A and pipeline moves: from eye disease to obesity 2.0

Adverum: buying into gene therapy for blinding eye disease

On December 9, Lilly announced it had completed its tender offer to acquire Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM). ^[28]

Deal terms:

• $3.56 in cash per Adverum share, plus a non‑tradable contingent value right (CVR) worth up to $8.91 per share if future regulatory and sales milestones are hit. ^[29]
• About 64% of shares were tendered, with the remainder to be taken out via merger; trading in ADVM is expected to cease. ^[30]

Strategic rationale:

• Lilly gains Ixo‑vec, a one‑time gene therapy in late‑stage development for wet age‑related macular degeneration (wAMD), a leading cause of blindness in older adults. ^[31]
• Analysts cited in Reuters estimate Ixo‑vec could reach around $1.3 billion in annual sales by 2033 if successful, giving Lilly a foothold in a high‑value ophthalmology niche dominated by Roche and Regeneron today. ^[32]

This deal follows an earlier gene therapy partnership with MeiraGTx in November, where Lilly obtained rights to an experimental therapy for Leber congenital amaurosis 4, along with broader ophthalmology gene‑therapy technology rights in a deal worth over $475 million in potential payments. ^[33]

Taken together, Lilly is clearly building an eye‑disease platform on top of its obesity/diabetes engine.

Obesity pipeline & AI deal with Superluminal

Beyond tirzepatide injections, Lilly is racing to secure the next wave of obesity treatments:

• Orforglipron – once‑daily oral GLP‑1 agonist in Phase 3; Q3 results and guidance highlighted positive Phase 3 outcomes across four trials in obesity and type 2 diabetes, supporting regulatory submissions by year‑end 2025. ^[34]
• Retatrutide – a “triple‑acting” injectable incretin (GLP‑1, GIP and glucagon) in late‑stage development. ^[35]
• Eloralinitide – a once‑weekly injectable obesity candidate. ^[36]
• Bimagrumab – a mid‑stage therapy from the Versanis acquisition, targeting fat loss while preserving muscle mass. ^[37]

To feed that pipeline, Lilly signed a deal in August with Superluminal Medicines, worth up to $1.3 billion, using the company’s AI‑powered discovery platform to develop next‑generation obesity drugs and cardiometabolic therapies. ^[38]

The Stocktwits “weight‑loss gold rush” analysis notes that GLP‑1 obesity drug sales globally could reach $130–$150 billion by the mid‑2030s, with Lilly currently pulling ahead of Novo Nordisk thanks to its deeper obesity pipeline and better recent execution. ^[39]

Important nuance: in August, Lilly’s stock dropped over 14% in a single day after early orforglipron weight‑loss data fell short of some market expectations relative to Wegovy, reminding investors that even GLP‑1 leaders are not immune to pipeline disappointments. ^[40]

Neuroscience and oncology: Kisunla label update and Inluriyo approval

While GLP‑1s dominate headlines, Lilly is also shoring up other high‑value franchises:

Kisunla (donanemab) for early Alzheimer’s disease

In July, the FDA approved an updated label for Kisunla (donanemab‑azbt), Lilly’s once‑monthly anti‑amyloid antibody for early symptomatic Alzheimer’s disease. The update introduces a new titration dosing schedule aimed at reducing safety risks. ^[41]

Key findings from the TRAILBLAZER‑ALZ 6 study that underpinned the change: ^[42]

• The modified titration schedule cut the incidence of ARIA‑E (brain swelling) by 41% at 24 weeks (14% vs 24%) and 35% at 52 weeks (16% vs 25%) compared with the original regimen.
• Amyloid plaque reduction and biomarker improvements (P‑tau217) were similar to the original schedule, suggesting efficacy is preserved.

Given earlier concerns about ARIA‑related safety and the competitive landscape (e.g., Eisai/Biogen’s Leqembi), this label change should make Kisunla more palatable to physicians and payors, even if its commercial ramp remains gradual.

Inluriyo (imlunestrant) in breast cancer

Q3 results also highlighted U.S. FDA approval of Inluriyo (imlunestrant), an oral selective estrogen receptor degrader (SERD) for certain adults with advanced or metastatic breast cancer, adding another oncology growth driver. ^[43]

Taken together, Kisunla and Inluriyo strengthen Lilly’s oncology and neuroscience mix, providing some diversification away from obesity.

Dividend hike and shareholder returns

Income‑oriented investors got fresh news this week: on December 8, Lilly’s board declared a first‑quarter 2026 dividend of $1.73 per share, payable March 10, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 13. ^[44]

That’s a 15% increase from the prior quarterly dividend of $1.50, with multiple outlets and the company’s own dividend history confirming the jump. ^[45]

At today’s share price, the yield is modest (~0.7%), but:

• The payout ratio remains low (around 20–30% of earnings depending on metric). ^[46]
• Lilly has now raised its dividend for 11 consecutive years, according to several dividend‑tracking services. ^[47]

Given the capital needs for manufacturing and M&A, investors should still see LLY as a growth compounder with a token dividend, not a classic income stock.

What Wall Street and “smart money” are saying

Analyst ratings and price targets

Across major aggregators:

• MarketBeat shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with 3 Strong Buys, 17 Buys and 6 Holds, and an average price target around $1,087 (range roughly $900–$1,290). ^[48]
• MarketBeat’s broader forecast page and other sources place the average 12‑month target between $1,090 and $1,105, implying about 8–13% upside from the current price near $980. ^[49]
• QuiverQuant’s aggregation finds 11 recent buy/outperform ratings and no sells, with a median target around $1,092 and several high‑profile analysts (Bernstein, Morgan Stanley, Citi, BMO, JPM, Truist) setting targets between $1,150 and $1,500. ^[50]

In short, the Street is overwhelmingly positive, but expectations are already lofty.

Sentiment around the $1 trillion milestone

QuiverQuant’s analysis of social and institutional data highlights: ^[51]

• Strong X/Twitter buzz celebrating Lilly’s climb above $1 trillion market cap, largely crediting its GLP‑1 franchise.
• Heavy insider activity, dominated by planned selling from long‑standing holders like the Lilly Endowment, but also showing opportunistic insider purchases by top executives.
• Intense interest from Congress and hedge funds, with notable recent buys from several U.S. lawmakers and major institutions such as UBS Asset Management and Capital Research Global Investors.

Not everyone is bullish: valuation pushback

A newly published Seeking Alpha article (“Skip The Market Darling Eli Lilly; Buy The Underdog Novo Nordisk”) argues that: ^[52]

• Novo Nordisk (NVO) looks undervalued relative to peers, while Lilly is “priced for perfection.”
• NVO still has industry‑leading margins and strong GLP‑1 cash flows but trades at a much lower P/E.
• The author rates NVO a modest BUY and Lilly a cautious HOLD, citing execution risks in the GLP‑1 race and the possibility that Lilly’s current premium compresses.

That view is in the minority compared to consensus, but it underscores a key theme: most of the good news is already in the price.

Key risks to the LLY bull case

Even fans of the company should keep a realistic checklist of risks:

1. Concentration in GLP‑1 drugs
   • Tirzepatide‑based products (Mounjaro and Zepbound) already represent well over half of Lilly’s revenue. ^[53]
   • Any unexpected safety signal, regulatory change, or competitive disruption could hit both revenue and investor sentiment disproportionately hard.
2. Pricing and political pressure
   • Zepbound price cuts and the White House deal show that Washington is deeply involved in GLP‑1 economics. ^[54]
   • As volumes move into public programs (Medicare/Medicaid) and international markets, rebates and mandated discounts may erode margins.
3. Competition and pipeline uncertainty
   • Novo Nordisk is pushing its own oral GLP‑1 and next‑gen candidates like CargiSema, despite recent trial disappointments. ^[55]
   • New players such as Amgen, AstraZeneca, Structure Therapeutics and others are bringing oral and multi‑modal weight‑loss drugs that could pressure pricing and share. Structure’s recent trial data, for example, produced competitive weight‑loss with potentially better tolerability, spurring a sharp jump in its stock. ^[56]
   • Orforglipron’s early data wobble in August shows how sensitive LLY can be to any sign of underperformance. ^[57]
4. Execution on manufacturing build‑out
   • The $27 billion U.S. expansion, including the Huntsville plant, is complex and multi‑year. Cost overruns, delays, or regulatory hurdles could slow the path from capex to cash flow. ^[58]
5. Valuation risk
   • With a TTM P/E near 49 and even optimistic fair‑value models like PEG‑based approaches pointing to rich pricing, any slowdown in GLP‑1 prescriptions or new safety cloud could trigger a sharp rerating, even if the underlying business remains strong. ^[59]

What to watch in 2026

For investors tracking LLY into the new year, the most important upcoming catalysts include:

• Regulatory decisions on orforglipron, Lilly’s oral GLP‑1, expected in the U.S. in 2026. ^[60]
• Further global launches and reimbursement decisions for Zepbound and Mounjaro, especially in Europe and emerging markets. ^[61]
• Integration of Adverum and progress on Ixo‑vec in wAMD, including any updated timelines or pivotal data. ^[62]
• Additional pipeline updates for retatrutide, Eloralinitide, bimagrumab, Inluriyo, and Kisunla. ^[63]
• The pace of manufacturing expansion and any early commentary on output from new facilities. ^[64]

Bottom line: Is Eli Lilly stock a buy, hold, or wait‑and‑see?

From a fundamentals perspective, Lilly is firing on almost all cylinders:

• Its GLP‑1 franchise is redefining obesity and diabetes care and has turned the company into a top‑tier growth story rather than a slow‑growing pharma incumbent. ^[65]
• The pipeline is deep, spanning oral obesity drugs, gene therapies for eye disease, Alzheimer’s treatments, and new oncology assets. ^[66]
• Management is investing heavily in manufacturing capacity and AI‑driven discovery, signaling long‑term confidence. ^[67]

However:

• The stock now trades with tech‑like multiples, not traditional pharma ones.
• Consensus already bakes in strong continued growth, with Street targets suggesting only high single‑digit to low double‑digit upside from here over 12 months. ^[68]
• Political and competitive risks around GLP‑1 pricing are clearly rising, as reflected in price cuts and policy agreements this quarter. ^[69]

For growth‑oriented investors with a long time horizon, Lilly can plausibly remain a core holding: the company is at the center of a multi‑decade shift in cardiometabolic care and is deploying capital aggressively to defend that position.

For value‑focused or risk‑averse investors, caution is warranted. A number of independent analyses and at least one prominent comparative piece argue that Lilly is priced for perfection and that some competitors (notably Novo Nordisk) may offer better risk‑reward at current levels. ^[70]

As always, any decision to buy, sell, or hold should be based on your own risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio context. This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

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