Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock on 6 December 2025: Zepbound Price Cuts, $1 Trillion Milestone and 2026 Forecasts

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) heads into the final weeks of 2025 as one of the most closely watched stocks on Wall Street – and not just in healthcare. After briefly crossing the $1 trillion market-cap mark in November on the back of explosive demand for its obesity and diabetes drugs, the stock has pulled back slightly but remains near record highs. ^[1]

As of December 6, 2025, LLY is trading around $1,010 per share, giving it a market value just under the trillion‑dollar level and leaving investors debating whether the latest volatility is a buying opportunity or a warning sign. ^[2]

Below is a structured look at the latest news, forecasts and analyses relevant to Eli Lilly stock as of 06.12.2025.

Key takeaways at a glance

LLY stock price: About $1,010 with a 52‑week range of roughly $624–$1,112 and a forward P/E near 49x, reflecting extremely high growth expectations. ^[3]
GLP‑1 franchise dominance: Zepbound and Mounjaro generated roughly $10.1 billion in Q3 2025 sales, surpassing Merck’s Keytruda as the world’s best‑selling drug franchise. ^[4]
Fresh news this week: Lilly cut list prices on Zepbound vials to improve affordability, pressuring margins in the short term but potentially widening access – and the stock dipped on the headlines. ^[5]
Analyst sentiment: Most brokers rate LLY Buy or Strong Buy with 12‑month price targets clustered around $1,060–$1,090, and high‑end targets up to $1,500. ^[6]
Valuation debate: Simply Wall St’s DCF model suggests ~21% upside to fair value around $1,274, but its earnings‑based checks flag the stock as expensive versus peers. ^[7]

1. Where LLY stock stands on 6 December 2025

Current price and recent moves

Real‑time data show LLY around $1,010.31, modestly down on the day, with intraday trading between roughly $1,004 and $1,027.
MarketBeat’s latest snapshot puts Lilly’s market cap near $955–$960 billion, a P/E ratio around 49.5x, PEG about 1.1, and a low‑volatility beta of ~0.37 – unusually defensive numbers for such a high‑growth story. ^[8]
Over the last week, the stock has seen a bout of profit‑taking; one widely cited note highlighted seven consecutive daily declines, with shares around $1,009 on Friday. ^[9]

Despite that pullback, multi‑year performance remains extraordinary:

+9.1% over the past month
+29.8% year‑to‑date
+23.1% over the past year
+186.6% over three years and +565.2% over five years ^[10]

That run‑up is why valuation and “is it too late?” questions are now front‑and‑center in almost every fresh analysis.

2. Zepbound price cuts: short‑term pain, long‑term access play?

The single biggest new development this week is Lilly’s decision to cut prices on Zepbound vials sold via its LillyDirect platform and related self‑pay programs:

2.5 mg dose: cut from $349 to $299 per month
5 mg dose: cut from $499 to $399
Higher doses: cut from $499 to $449 per month ^[11]

These reductions follow earlier cuts on multi‑dose pens (still awaiting FDA approval) and are explicitly aimed at patients who pay out of pocket, many of whom struggle with insurance coverage and prior authorization hurdles. ^[12]

At the same time, Lilly recently agreed with the U.S. government to lower GLP‑1 prices for Medicare and Medicaid, as well as cash‑pay customers, in exchange for broader program participation. ^[13]

Market reaction

Commentary from The Motley Fool and others notes that LLY shares fell on the price‑cut headlines, as investors worried about margin compression, but argued this is “no reason to panic” given demand strength and the scale of the opportunity. ^[14]
Analysts at BMO and Guggenheim have largely framed these price moves as strategic volume plays: sacrifices in near‑term pricing to cement long‑term dominance and secure payer coverage. ^[15]

For investors, the takeaway is that headline price cuts don’t equal collapsing economics. The GLP‑1 franchise sits on such high margins and such massive potential volume that management appears comfortable trading some price per dose for much broader access.

3. Earnings snapshot: a $10 billion quarter for tirzepatide

Lilly’s most recent reported quarter (Q3 2025) is the foundation for almost every current forecast:

Total revenue: about $17.6 billion, up roughly 54% year‑over‑year, beating consensus by around 9%. ^[16]
Earnings per share: around $7.02, comfortably ahead of Wall Street expectations. ^[17]

The star of the show is the tirzepatide franchise, sold as:

Zepbound for obesity
Mounjaro for diabetes and weight management

Key Q3 numbers:

Zepbound sales: nearly $3.6 billion, up 185% year‑over‑year, beating expectations by more than $500 million. ^[18]
Mounjaro sales: about $6.5 billion, up 109% year‑over‑year, roughly $1 billion ahead of consensus estimates. ^[19]
Combined, Zepbound and Mounjaro generated roughly $10.1 billion in Q3, overtaking Merck’s Keytruda as the world’s top‑selling drug franchise for the period. ^[20]

On the back of that, Lilly raised full‑year 2025 guidance, now targeting:

Revenue of about $63.0–$63.5 billion, up from a previous $60–$62 billion range. ^[21]
Higher earnings guidance as well, with EPS now expected in the low‑to‑mid $20s per share, reflecting strong gross margins and operating leverage from incretin drugs. ^[22]

All of this reinforces the current “growth at scale” narrative: Lilly is already one of the largest healthcare companies on the planet, yet still growing like a small‑cap disruptor.

4. Pipeline and capacity expansion: orforglipron, retatrutide and new plants

While Zepbound and Mounjaro drive today’s numbers, much of the bullish long‑term case hinges on Lilly’s pipeline and manufacturing build‑out.

Orforglipron: oral GLP‑1 pill

Lilly’s oral obesity pill, orforglipron, produced around 12.4% weight loss in a late‑stage study, and the company says it meets three of four criteria for a new FDA “national priority” voucher program that can cut review times to 1–2 months. ^[23]
Management plans to submit the FDA review package this quarter, positioning orforglipron as a potential fast‑track candidate that could massively expand the GLP‑1 market beyond injections. ^[24]

$6.5 billion Houston plant

To support that pill strategy and broader small‑molecule production, Lilly is investing $6.5 billion in a new manufacturing plant in Houston, Texas:

The facility will focus heavily on orforglipron and other cardiometabolic and oncology small‑molecule drugs.
It is expected to create 615 permanent jobs and roughly 4,000 construction roles, and is part of a broader $27 billion U.S. manufacturing expansion announced earlier in 2025. ^[25]

This isn’t just a capacity story. It also plays into political pressure for on‑shoring drug manufacturing and securing domestic supply of critical medicines – a theme that matters for long‑term regulatory and reimbursement risk.

Retatrutide and other pipeline assets

BMO Capital’s latest note – which raised its LLY price target to $1,200 – hinges partly on increased confidence in retatrutide, another obesity candidate. The bank now assumes a 75% probability of success and expects the TRIUMPH‑4 trial to show 20–23% weight loss and meaningful reductions in joint pain scores. ^[26]
Beyond obesity and diabetes, Lilly is expanding in oncology. Morgan Stanley’s Terence Flynn recently reiterated a Buy rating with a $1,290 target, highlighting upcoming data from Lilly’s breast cancer portfolio at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium in December 2025. ^[27]
Lilly also recently secured expanded FDA approval for Jaypirca in chronic lymphocytic leukemia, while continuing to invest in neuroscience and immunology programs. ^[28]

Taken together, Lilly is clearly trying to lock in its GLP‑1 leadership while broadening its growth drivers so the story is not only about weight‑loss drugs.

5. Analyst forecasts: high targets after a trillion‑dollar rally

Despite the extraordinary run, sell‑side sentiment remains strongly positive.

Consensus price targets

Depending on the data provider, consensus looks like this:

MarketBeat:
- 26 analysts over the last 12 months
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” (20 Buy/Strong Buy, 6 Hold)
- Average 12‑month price target: ~$1,087, implying ~8% upside from around $1,009 at the time of the survey. ^[29]
StockAnalysis.com:
- 18 analysts
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”
- Average target: $1,063 (about 5% upside), range $700–$1,500. ^[30]
Quiver Quantitative:
- Median target from recent reports: about $1,092
- High‑profile targets include $1,200 (BMO), $1,290 (Morgan Stanley), $1,300 (Bernstein) and a street‑high $1,500 (Citigroup), with more cautious houses around $950. ^[31]

TipRanks and Investing.com tell a similar story:

Guggenheim recently bumped its target from $1,036 to $1,163, maintaining a Buy rating.
Wolfe Research lifted its target from $1,050 to $1,250, also with an Outperform stance. ^[32]
Across roughly 20 analysts tracked by TipRanks, LLY holds a “Strong Buy” rating, with 18 Buys and 2 Holds. ^[33]

Bottom line: At today’s price near $1,010, the average target implies mid‑single‑digit upside, but the bull‑case targets from major banks still foresee 20–50% potential gains if the GLP‑1 story continues to outperform.

6. Valuation: expensive… or still undervalued?

Valuation is where opinions start to diverge.

High multiples vs peers

Simply Wall St notes that Lilly currently trades on a P/E of about 49x, far above:

A broader pharmaceuticals industry average near 19.5x, and
A selected peer group average around 16.3x. ^[34]

Even after adjusting for growth, its proprietary “Fair Ratio” framework suggests a more appropriate P/E of ~42.7x, implying the stock looks stretched on an earnings‑multiple basis. ^[35]

Those numbers broadly match metrics from MarketBeat and ChartMill, which both show:

P/E ~49x
PEG ratio roughly 1.1–1.2, reflecting high expected earnings growth. ^[36]

Discounted cash flow: room to run?

However, the same Simply Wall St analysis reaches a very different conclusion using discounted cash flow (DCF):

Starting from last‑twelve‑month free cash flow of roughly $6.2 billion, its model projects FCF rising to about $37.6 billion by 2029, and above $60 billion by 2035, under a two‑stage growth scenario.
Discounting those cash flows back yields an estimated intrinsic value of about $1,274 per share, implying ~20.7% upside versus recent prices. ^[37]

Result: the article gives Lilly 2/6 on its valuation checks, flags the P/E as rich, but labels the DCF result as “UNDERVALUED” with a meaningful margin of safety if the cash‑flow trajectory plays out.

In other words, valuation is a Rorschach test here:

If you’re skeptical about long‑term GLP‑1 growth or fear heavy price regulation, 49x earnings looks demanding.
If you believe Lilly’s pipeline, capacity build‑out and first‑mover advantage can sustain high growth for a decade, the DCF‑style upside seems plausible.

7. Technical picture and trading sentiment

For short‑term traders, the latest technical read‑through is more cautious.

StockTradersDaily’s analysis for December 6, 2025 highlights: ^[38]

“Weak” near‑term sentiment (1–5 days), with support near $994 and resistance around $1,007.
“Neutral” mid‑term (5–20 days), with support close to $1,009 and resistance around $1,065.
“Neutral” long‑term (20+ days), with deeper support zones down near the $842–$959 range.

They also note “elevated downside risk” given the lack of fresh long‑term support signals, and present AI‑generated strategies for both long and short risk profiles.

Other quantitative screens are more constructive:

ChartMill assigns Lilly a high Profitability Rating (9/10) and a solid Dividend Rating (7/10), while acknowledging only “satisfactory” financial health (score 5/10). ^[39]
Investor’s Business Daily recently added Lilly to key top growth stock lists, citing its strong revenue momentum and mega‑cap leadership in healthcare. ^[40]

Short version: technicals look tired after a huge run, but factor and quality screens still like the name.

8. Institutional flows, insider activity and dividend profile

Institutional and insider activity

Several fresh 13F‑driven headlines from early December show how large investors are positioning around Lilly:

StoneX Group increased its stake by 34.3% in Q2, to over 11,000 shares worth about $8.6 million. ^[41]
Stenger Family Office initiated a new position of nearly 3,000 shares, around $2.3 million. ^[42]
Avestar Capital trimmed its holdings by 17.4%, yet still owns more than 7,500 shares. ^[43]

MarketBeat and others estimate that roughly 82–83% of Lilly’s float is now owned by institutions and hedge funds, underscoring just how widely held the stock has become. ^[44]

Quiver Quantitative adds that, in the last six months: ^[45]

1,980 institutional investors increased their LLY positions, while 1,772 reduced.
Insiders executed over 300 open‑market trades, most of them sales by the Lilly Endowment but with some notable purchases from CEO David Ricks and other senior executives, signaling at least some internal confidence despite the high share price.

Dividend and income profile

Although Lilly is not a high‑yield play, its dividend story is strengthening:

The company recently declared a quarterly dividend of $1.50 per share, or $6.00 annually, implying a yield of about 0.6% at current prices. ^[46]
The payout ratio around 29–30% leaves ample room for reinvestment and potential future increases. ^[47]
ChartMill’s dividend quality screen ranks Lilly as a “high‑quality dividend backed by strong profitability and growth”, thanks to robust margins and consistent earnings expansion. ^[48]

For long‑term, growth‑oriented investors, the dividend is more of a bonus than the core thesis – but its safety and growth potential reinforce Lilly’s blue‑chip status.

9. Key risks investors are watching

Despite the bullish narrative, recent commentary and analyst notes repeatedly flag several material risks:

Drug pricing and political risk
- Zepbound price cuts, the Medicare/Medicaid GLP‑1 initiatives and broader White House drug pricing efforts all signal sustained pressure on list prices and margins. ^[49]
Competition from Novo Nordisk and future entrants
- Novo’s semaglutide drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy) remain formidable competitors, and future oral GLP‑1s or next‑gen obesity therapies could further crowd the space. ^[50]
Manufacturing and supply constraints
- Both Lilly and rivals have struggled with capacity bottlenecks amid surging demand. The Houston plant and other projects aim to fix this, but delays or quality issues could hurt growth and reputation. ^[51]
Clinical and safety risk
- As Lilly pushes into oral GLP‑1s and new mechanisms like retatrutide, any unexpected safety signals or disappointing phase 3 data could hit both pipeline value and the broader GLP‑1 trade. ^[52]
Valuation compression
- With P/E multiples more than double the sector average, Lilly is vulnerable to sentiment shifts – even small disappointments can trigger outsized drawdowns, as recent selling after the price‑cut headlines showed. ^[53]

10. Outlook: LLY heading into 2026

Putting it all together, here’s how the current 06.12.2025 picture looks:

Fundamentally, Lilly is firing on all cylinders: tirzepatide has become the world’s best‑selling drug franchise, Q3 results smashed expectations, and guidance is moving higher. ^[54]
Strategically, management is trading some near‑term pricing power for long‑term volume, access and political goodwill via price cuts and government deals. ^[55]
The pipeline and manufacturing build‑out – orforglipron, retatrutide, oncology programs, the Houston plant and broader U.S. expansion – aim to sustain growth well beyond the first wave of GLP‑1 injections. ^[56]
Most analysts still see upside from here, but after a trillion‑dollar breakout, consensus price targets now imply more measured, single‑digit gains, with bigger upside reserved for the most optimistic houses. ^[57]
Valuation is high by any conventional metric, so execution has to remain nearly flawless to justify and extend today’s multiples. ^[58]

For anyone following LLY, the next catalysts to watch include:

Further details on orforglipron’s regulatory path under the FDA’s national priority voucher program
TRIUMPH‑4 retatrutide data, which BMO expects to be pivotal for obesity and osteoarthritis positioning ^[59]
Additional updates on manufacturing expansion and GLP‑1 supply
Any policy moves on GLP‑1 reimbursement from Medicare, Medicaid and major PBMs

Important disclaimer

This article summarizes publicly available information and analyst commentary as of December 6, 2025. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.