NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 17:27 ET
Drugmakers plan to raise U.S. list prices on at least 350 branded medicines in 2026, according to data from healthcare research firm 3 Axis Advisors. The median increase is about 4%, and the figures do not reflect rebates or other discounts. The same dataset showed drugmakers also plan to cut list prices on about nine medicines, including a more than 40% reduction for diabetes drug Jardiance, sold by Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly, after Medicare negotiated a lower price for 2026. Reuters
For investors, that is the opening backdrop for the Eli Lilly stock forecast in 2026: strong demand drivers on one side, widening political and commercial pressure on drug pricing on the other.
The debate matters now because pricing changes can ripple through profit expectations quickly, while the industry faces tougher scrutiny over what Americans pay compared with other wealthy countries.
Analysts tracked by MarketBeat put the average 12-month price target for Lilly at $1,155.36, about 7.5% above Wednesday’s close near $1,075, with estimates ranging from $950 to $1,300. The consensus rating was “Moderate Buy,” MarketBeat data showed, based on 26 analyst ratings. MarketBeat
Outside the United States, Lilly is also navigating price pressure in China, where rival Novo Nordisk said it is adjusting Wegovy prices and suppliers said Lilly’s Mounjaro would also get cheaper from Jan. 1. Reuters cited estimates that more than 65% of China’s population could be overweight or obese by 2030, but noted competition is expected to intensify as Novo’s semaglutide patent expires in 2026 in China. Reuters
The China discounts highlight a key tension for 2026: the fastest-growing obesity markets may be the ones that demand the steepest price concessions to unlock volume.
Lilly’s valuation reflects how much investors have already wagered on the obesity and diabetes franchise. In November, the company became the first drugmaker to reach a $1 trillion market value on demand for tirzepatide medicines sold as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity, Reuters reported. “The current valuation points to investor confidence in the longer-term durability of the company’s metabolic health franchise,” said Evan Seigerman, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets. Reuters
In plain terms, the upside case for 2026 leans on prescriptions and capacity: keep product on shelves, keep insurers and employers paying, and expand internationally without giving up too much price.
The downside case is more about the rules of the game changing. Medicare price negotiation and headline-grabbing list-price moves can reset how investors model the “net price” — what drugmakers actually collect after rebates.
List price is the sticker price. Net price is what is left after middlemen and insurers negotiate discounts, a gap that can be large in U.S. drug markets.
For Lilly, the question is whether pressure stays concentrated in a handful of negotiated or discounted products, or spreads into the broader portfolio as payers push harder and competitors match pricing.
Novo Nordisk remains the clearest reference point, because it is fighting the same global obesity battle and is making similar price moves in key markets.
The early 2026 setup leaves Lilly with a familiar trade: high expectations supported by blockbuster demand, tempered by rising price discipline from governments, insurers and consumers.
The consensus forecast implies single-digit upside from late-2025 levels, but the range of targets signals disagreement about how much pricing pressure and competition the market will absorb in 2026.
