New York, February 3, 2026, 12:05 (EST) — Regular session
- Shares of Eli Lilly dipped in midday trading amid new developments in obesity-drug news.
- With U.S. prices for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs dropping, analysts are scaling back their long-term market projections.
- Traders eye Wednesday’s Lilly update for hints on volumes, pricing, and upcoming pipeline developments.
Shares of Eli Lilly and Company dropped 1.4% to $1,029.99 by midday Tuesday, sliding from a session peak of $1,048.71 and dipping as low as $1,016.15.
The pullback arrives as investors reassess the outlook for obesity drugs—the key profit driver behind Lilly’s valuation—amid falling prices and a growing number of competitors. Wednesday’s results will be a crucial test, leaving the stock vulnerable to any signs of weakness.
Wall Street’s rosy forecast for obesity drugs hitting a $150 billion market is unraveling as U.S. prices for GLP-1 treatments drop. These drugs, which mimic gut hormones to suppress appetite and treat type 2 diabetes, launched around $1,000 a month at pharmacies. Now, Wegovy and Lilly’s Zepbound are being sold on company websites for as little as $149 to $299, analysts noted. This price plunge partly reflects political pressure and a deal with the Trump administration. Jefferies analyst Michael Leuchten didn’t mince words: “That $150 billion pie is gone.” Reuters
Competition is heating up sooner than anticipated. Novo Nordisk announced Monday that its experimental drug CagriSema led to a 14.2% body weight reduction after 68 weeks in a late-stage trial involving type 2 diabetes patients, outpacing Wegovy’s 10.2% loss.
Pfizer stirred the pot Tuesday, unveiling mid-stage results for its PF-3944 shot. Patients saw up to 12.3% weight loss at 28 weeks with monthly doses. Still, about 10% dropped out due to side effects. Cantor Fitzgerald’s Carter Gould noted the weight loss rivals Lilly’s Zepbound but flagged tolerability as the sticking point.
For Lilly, the key question is clear: will slashing prices attract enough new patients to sustain revenue growth, or simply give insurers and employers greater bargaining power? Investors will watch closely for shifts in demand for Zepbound and the diabetes drug Mounjaro, as well as whether supply can meet demand without triggering deeper discounts.
Focus will also fall on management’s take regarding the “cash-pay” market—where patients cover costs out of pocket instead of using insurance—and if direct-to-consumer pricing is expanding its share of volumes or merely acting as a pressure release.
The downside scenario is easy to imagine. If prices continue to fall and volumes fail to pick up, the market may grow but with shrinking margins. New drug injections, next-gen combos, and a surge of oral pills could also spark a quicker-than-expected share war, catching investors off guard.
Lilly will release its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Wednesday, February 4, followed by a conference call at 10 a.m. Eastern. Investors are keen for updates on its oral obesity drug program, with approval expected later this year.
