The eurozone enters Tuesday’s session with a relatively light data calendar, but a handful of national releases and central‑bank signals are still shaping the market mood ahead of this week’s crucial Federal Reserve decision.
Below is a structured look at what’s on the EU economic calendar today, how the numbers compare with expectations, and what they mean for the euro, bonds and equities.
Snapshot: What Matters for Europe on 9 December 2025
Key data and events affecting the EU today
- Netherlands (Oct/Nov data)
- Germany (Oct trade balance)
- Exports: ‑0.2% m/m (consensus +1.4%).
- Imports: +0.2% m/m (consensus +3.1%).
- Trade surplus: €15.9bn, slightly above expectations of €15.3bn. [3]
- Other euro‑area national data
- Lithuania: November producer prices (PPI) due later; prior readings showed ‑1.6% m/m and ‑0.6% y/y, underlining ongoing factory‑gate deflation. [4]
- Slovakia: October trade balance expected around €370m, down from €428m. [5]
- Greece: Final November CPI and HICP data scheduled, with previous annual rates at 2.0% and 1.6% respectively. [6]
- Spain: 3‑month Letras auction, with the prior sale clearing at 1.91%—a useful gauge of how aggressively markets are pricing future ECB cuts. [7]
- Central‑bank diary
- Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel speaks later today, with investors hunting for any hint on how long the ECB will stay on hold after its recent easing cycle. [8]
- Market backdrop
- Euro–dollar: EUR/USD is trading around 1.164–1.165, up roughly 0.1% on the day and close to its strongest levels in four years, after gaining almost 13% since January. [9]
- Macro context: Euro‑area GDP grew 0.3% q/q in Q3 and 1.4% y/y, while employment rose 0.2% q/q, pointing to steady but unspectacular growth. [10]
With few blockbuster releases, the tone is being set less by fresh data and more by how today’s numbers fit into the story of a strong euro, moderating inflation and a still‑fragile German engine.
Germany: Trade Miss Highlights Ongoing External Headwinds
Germany’s October trade figures are the main hard data point for the eurozone today—and they’re not particularly encouraging for export momentum.
- Exports fell 0.2% m/m in October, sharply undershooting expectations for a 1.4% rise and reversing some of September’s strength.
- Imports eked out a 0.2% gain, well below the prior 3.1%.
- The trade surplus widened slightly to €15.9bn, beating expectations of €15.3bn, but largely because imports softened more than exports. [11]
These data land just a day after figures showed German industrial output jumping 1.8% m/m in October, far above the 0.4% expected. Analysts, however, warn this is not yet a turning point: production remains about 9% below its pre‑slump peak and order books are still thin. [12]
Investor sentiment tells a similar story. The latest Sentix survey shows euro‑area morale improving in December, but Germany is still labelled a “stumbling block” for the region, with its own index falling to ‑22.7 and the current‑situation component dropping to its weakest since February. [13]
Why it matters
- Weak exports reinforce the narrative that Germany’s old growth model—cheap energy plus booming global goods demand—is under strain, even as domestic demand and construction show pockets of resilience.
- For the ECB, a soft German external sector is another argument for not rushing to withdraw accommodation too quickly, especially if the euro stays strong and global demand cools further.
Netherlands: Disinflation at the Margin, but Still Near 3%
Dutch data offer a clearer, and slightly more comforting, picture for the ECB.
- November CPI slowed to 2.9% y/y from 3.1%, aligning with market expectations.
- On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.8%, unwinding the 0.3% increase in October. [14]
- Household spending held steady at +0.8% y/y in October, suggesting domestic demand is cooling but far from collapsing. [15]
These national figures slot into the broader euro‑area picture: Eurostat’s flash estimate put euro‑zone inflation at 2.2% in November, up just a tick from 2.1% in October, with core HICP stuck around 2.4%. [16]
Implications
- The Dutch numbers underscore a gentle disinflation trend in tradable goods and energy but persistent pressure in services, matching the euro‑area pattern.
- A negative monthly print offers optical comfort to doves on the Governing Council who argue that the inflation fight is effectively won and that the risk is now undershooting the 2% target.
Greece, Lithuania and Slovakia: Small Economies, Useful Signals
While they rarely move global markets on their own, today’s lesser‑watched releases add detail to the euro‑area mosaic:
- Greece: Final November CPI and HICP prints are expected to confirm annual inflation near 2%, with the previous readings at 2.0% and 1.6% respectively. [17] Greece has been one of the quieter inflation stories, with modest price growth and a recovering tourism‑driven economy.
- Lithuania PPI: Previous data showed producer prices dropping 1.6% m/m and 0.6% y/y, reflecting weak external demand and cheap energy. Markets will look to see whether factory‑gate disinflation continues, reinforcing the idea that pipeline price pressure is fading. [18]
- Slovak trade balance: Consensus expects a surplus of about €370m for October, down from €428m. [19] For the region’s integrated supply chains, small shifts in Slovakia’s trade data can hint at broader trends in central European manufacturing.
Individually, these releases are low‑volatility; collectively, they cement the sense of a eurozone that is growing slowly, with price pressures contained but not crushed.
ECB Watch: Nagel’s Comments Under the Microscope
With data light, central‑bank communication is the real event risk in Europe today.
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is scheduled to speak later in the day. As one of the more hawkish voices on the ECB Governing Council, he has previously argued for caution on further easing and warned about upside inflation risks. Today, investors will listen for three things:
- How he interprets the latest inflation prints – whether the move to around 2.2% is seen as a stable “victory” or a pause before renewed pressure. [20]
- His tolerance for euro strength – particularly in light of the currency’s robust real effective exchange rate.
- Hints on the pace of future rate cuts – after several reductions earlier this year, markets now see a long pause but are still pricing some easing in 2026.
Nagel’s remarks will be read alongside recent comments from other policymakers. ECB official Peter Kazimir has cautioned that some upside risks to inflation remain and that the bank must stay vigilant. [21] In contrast, Olli Rehn recently highlighted downside risks and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly around Ukraine, arguing for flexibility in either direction. [22]
The result is a deliberately balanced message: policy is on hold, but both hawks and doves want to keep their options open.
A Strong Euro in a “Good Place” – Or Too Strong?
Perhaps the most important thread running through today’s commentary is the strength of the euro itself.
A fresh Reuters analysis notes that the euro has climbed to around $1.166, not far from the four‑year high near $1.192 reached in September, and is up nearly 13% for the year—its best performance since 2017. [23]
More importantly, the real effective exchange rate—which adjusts for inflation and weights the euro against key trading partners—has risen to its highest level in over a decade. [24]
According to strategists quoted in that piece, this “hidden” strength does three things:
- Amplifies the deflationary shock coming from China, where aggressively priced exports are pushing down import prices in Europe.
- Tightens financial conditions even if the ECB keeps rates unchanged, because a stronger currency weighs on exports and imported inflation.
- Raises the odds that the ECB may need to cut rates more than currently anticipated if growth slows and inflation slips below target.
Other FX commentary notes that EUR/USD is holding in the mid‑1.16s, with technical indicators and yield spreads still skewed mildly in favour of further upside toward 1.17, even as traders brace for the Fed. [25]
How Today Fits into the Bigger Eurozone Story
Zooming out, the latest data reinforce a few themes:
- Growth: gentle, not booming. Euro‑area GDP expanded 0.3% q/q in Q3, with employment up 0.2%—steady but clearly below pre‑pandemic boom rates. [26]
- Inflation: hovering near 2%. Headline HICP around 2.2% and core near 2.4% suggest the ECB’s target has largely been achieved, even as pockets of services inflation linger. [27]
- Forward indicators: slightly softer. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the euro area slipped 0.1% in October and has been negative on a six‑month basis, pointing to moderate downside risks to growth into 2026. [28]
- Sentiment: stabilising but fragile. The euro‑zone Sentix index improved in December, but Germany remains a drag, reinforcing the message from today’s trade data. [29]
Put simply, Europe looks like a textbook “soft‑landing” economy: weak but positive growth, inflation almost exactly on target, and a currency that is arguably too strong rather than too weak.
What Investors Are Watching Next
With today’s EU calendar light, markets are already looking ahead to a dense run of events later in the month:
- Euro‑area industrial production (Oct) – due 15 December. [30]
- Euro‑area trade balance (Oct) – 16 December. [31]
- Final November HICP (Eurozone CPI) – 17 December. [32]
- ECB policy meeting – 18 December, where the Governing Council is widely expected to leave rates unchanged but may refine its guidance on 2026. [33]
For now, though, today’s European numbers are unlikely to overshadow the U.S. NFIB and JOLTS releases or Wednesday’s Fed decision, which are expected to dominate global market direction. A recent rates note even described the eurozone diary this week as “notable mostly for its lack of notable data,” underscoring how much attention has shifted across the Atlantic. [34]
Bottom Line
- Germany’s trade miss confirms that the region’s largest economy is still struggling to regain its pre‑slump mojo.
- Dutch inflation and spending show gentle disinflation without outright weakness, adding to the case that euro‑area price pressures are under control.
- Peripheral releases from Greece, Lithuania and Slovakia will fine‑tune the euro‑area picture but are unlikely to move markets by themselves.
- ECB communication and euro strength are the real swing factors: a firm currency plus subdued inflation could eventually push the central bank toward more cuts than markets currently expect.
For traders and investors, the message from today’s EU calendar is clear: Europe remains in a delicate “good place” – but with a strong currency, a patchy German recovery and soft forward indicators, it wouldn’t take much to knock it off balance.
This article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. All data are subject to revision by the original sources.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. uk.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. ec.europa.eu, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. uk.investing.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. ec.europa.eu, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.conference-board.org, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.scotiabank.com, 31. www.scotiabank.com, 32. www.scotiabank.com, 33. www.scotiabank.com, 34. menafn.com
