Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) ended Thursday’s regular session essentially flat, then edged higher in after-hours trading as investors weighed a drop in crude prices, fresh analyst price-target changes, and new evidence that U.S. shale’s “engine room” (the Permian Basin) may be approaching a peak—without necessarily falling off a cliff.
Below is a detailed after-the-bell recap for Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025, and a practical checklist of what traders and long-term investors will be watching before Friday’s market open (Dec. 12, 2025).
XOM after the bell (Dec. 11): Price action and what it signals
Exxon stock closed at $119.54 in regular trading on Thursday, and ticked up to $119.92 in after-hours (as of 5:50 p.m. ET), a modest gain that suggests the market didn’t see an immediate, new company-specific shock after the close. [1]
From an intraday perspective, XOM traded between $118.75 and $120.35, opening near $119.21, with about 14.78 million shares changing hands—activity consistent with a large-cap mega-cap moving mostly with sector and commodity sentiment rather than a single headline.
Context matters: Thursday’s broader tape was upbeat—several energy peers finished lower while Exxon was flat, with the S&P 500 modestly higher and the Dow notably stronger on the day. [2]
The big Exxon headline backdrop on Dec. 11: The Permian “peaks,” but doesn’t break
One of the most important Exxon-related narratives in Thursday’s news flow wasn’t about Exxon alone—it was about the Permian Basin, Exxon’s core U.S. growth engine (boosted by its Pioneer acquisition).
A Reuters column published Thursday pointed to the Permian hitting a record ~6.76 million barrels per day in December 2025, describing the moment as a potential “peak” for the basin’s production trajectory—while emphasizing that technology and drilling innovation could keep output elevated for years, even if rapid growth slows. [3]
Why this matters for Exxon stock:
- Exxon has explicitly tied a major portion of its medium-term growth to “advantaged” barrels—especially Permian and Guyana.
- Reuters highlighted that Exxon plans to double Permian output by 2030 to ~2.5 million boe/d, with management pointing to longer laterals, AI-assisted drilling decisions, and improved completion techniques to support recovery and reduce costs. [4]
- The same Reuters piece also underscored a key investor point: large operators have lowered costs meaningfully, and Exxon and Chevron were cited with Permian costs around $30–$40 per barrel, improving resilience when oil prices are under pressure. [5]
In plain terms: Thursday’s Permian story reinforced the bullish “durability” argument for Exxon’s U.S. shale exposure—even while acknowledging the basin may be transitioning from hyper-growth to “high plateau.”
Oil prices fell Thursday—and that’s still Exxon’s shortest-term catalyst
While Exxon has chemicals, refining, LNG, and growing low-carbon options, the day-to-day gravity for XOM remains crude prices and the market’s view of the supply/demand balance.
On Thursday, Reuters reported that oil prices fell on renewed focus on Russia–Ukraine peace talks and concerns about large surpluses in U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories. In settlement terms, Reuters said Brent settled at $61.28 and WTI at $57.60. [6]
That dynamic creates a push-pull for Exxon shares:
- Lower crude can pressure upstream profitability expectations.
- But Exxon’s management pitch (and many analyst models) leans on structural cost reductions, higher-margin mix, and “advantaged” barrels that can still earn acceptable returns even when oil is weak.
Heading into Friday morning, spot pricing indicators still had WTI hovering around the $57–$58 area. [7]
The supply debate widened on Dec. 11: OPEC sees balance in 2026, others see a glut
Another Dec. 11 development investors will keep in mind before Friday’s open: OPEC’s monthly report suggested a much tighter 2026 market than some other forecasters.
Reuters reported that OPEC data implied supply and demand could be close to balanced in 2026, noting:
- OPEC+ produced ~43.06 million bpd in November, and
- OPEC forecast demand for OPEC+ crude averaging ~43 million bpd in 2026 (with Reuters calculating production would be about 60,000 bpd above demand if output stayed at November levels). [8]
- Reuters also highlighted a sharp contrast with the International Energy Agency’s view, which implied a much larger surplus next year. [9]
For Exxon stock, this matters because oil-price expectations and forward curves drive:
- near-term sentiment,
- medium-term cash flow estimates,
- and how “safe” buybacks and dividend growth look under stress scenarios.
Analyst actions on Dec. 11: Wells Fargo turns more optimistic; Bank of America trims
Thursday also brought notable sell-side adjustments, which often influence premarket narratives even when they don’t move the stock immediately.
Wells Fargo: price target raised, Overweight reiterated
Investing.com reported that Wells Fargo raised its Exxon price target to $158 from $156, keeping an Overweight rating, and referenced confidence around Exxon’s production and capex outlook. [10]
GuruFocus also summarized the same move, noting the target increase and continued Overweight stance. [11]
Bank of America: price target lowered, Neutral maintained
On the other side, Bank of America lowered its price target to $118 from $119 while keeping a Neutral rating, per MarketBeat’s summary of the research-note action. [12]
A separate GuruFocus note likewise described the $119 → $118 trim. [13]
What this means before Friday’s open: The spread in targets reinforces what many investors already know—Exxon is increasingly a “macro + execution” story, where analysts can differ mainly based on their oil-price decks, refining/chemical margin assumptions, and how much value they assign to Exxon’s long-cycle projects and “new market” initiatives.
Exxon’s own forecast still frames the medium-term bull case
Even though Exxon’s big corporate update was released earlier in the week, it remained central to how the market interpreted Thursday’s news.
In its 2030 plan update, Exxon said it expects (at constant prices/margins versus 2024):
- $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth by 2030, with no increase in planned capital spending versus prior plans. [14]
- Roughly $145 billion in cumulative surplus cash flow through 2030 assuming $65 real Brent. [15]
- Shareholder returns remain a headline feature: Exxon said it is on track to repurchase $20 billion of shares this year and plans to maintain that pace through 2026 (assuming “reasonable market conditions”). [16]
- Operationally: total upstream production rising to ~5.5 million boe/d by 2030, with advantaged assets (Permian, Guyana, LNG) making up a large share of the mix. [17]
Separately, Exxon’s most recent quarterly materials also highlighted that it declared a $1.03/share dividend (a 4% increase) payable Dec. 10, 2025, and pointed to its multi-decade record of annual dividend growth. [18]
What to watch before the market opens Friday, Dec. 12, 2025
Here’s the premarket checklist that’s most likely to matter for Exxon Mobil stock (XOM) heading into Friday’s open.
1) Crude direction overnight
With WTI settling at $57.60 on Thursday and trading still near that neighborhood in early pricing references, any continued slide (or surprise rebound) can feed directly into energy-sector tone at the open. [19]
2) Ukraine peace-talk headlines and Venezuela-related supply risk
Thursday’s oil selloff was linked in part to renewed focus on Russia–Ukraine peace efforts, alongside ongoing attention to Venezuela-linked shipping and sanctions dynamics. These can shift oil quickly—especially in thin overnight liquidity. [20]
3) OPEC vs. IEA narrative battle
Investors may continue digesting the “balanced 2026” framing from OPEC versus the “meaningful surplus” framing highlighted by Reuters in the same coverage. If Friday morning commentary leans toward “oversupply,” it can weigh on integrated oils broadly. [21]
4) Futures and risk appetite at the index level
Premarket risk tone matters even for “defensive” energy majors. A Barron’s premarket wrap flagged S&P 500 futures down while oil was also softer in premarket context—conditions that can cap upside for cyclicals at the open if they persist. [22]
5) The analyst-note echo
Even when they don’t change long-term fundamentals, fresh price-target stories often dominate early-morning headlines and can influence retail flows:
- Bullish: Wells Fargo’s higher target and Overweight reiteration [23]
- Cautious: Bank of America’s small trim and Neutral stance [24]
6) The “Permian plateau” interpretation
Expect commentary to keep circling back to Thursday’s Permian reporting:
- If traders interpret “peak” as “decline soon,” energy sentiment can sag.
- If investors interpret it as “high, stable output with lower costs,” that can support Exxon’s “durability and scale” premium. [25]
Bottom line for Friday’s open
After the bell on Dec. 11, 2025, Exxon stock’s modest after-hours uptick suggests a market still anchored to the same core drivers: oil prices, the 2026 supply outlook, and confidence in Exxon’s ability to execute its Permian/Guyana-led growth plan while funding buybacks and dividends. [26]
Going into Dec. 12’s market open, the single most important near-term variable remains crude’s next move—and whether the market treats Thursday’s Permian “peak” narrative as a warning sign or as evidence that scale + technology can keep U.S. shale output (and Exxon’s “advantaged barrels”) durable even in a lower-price environment.
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. oilprice.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.gurufocus.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.gurufocus.com, 14. investor.exxonmobil.com, 15. investor.exxonmobil.com, 16. investor.exxonmobil.com, 17. investor.exxonmobil.com, 18. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com
