NEW YORK, Jan 8, 2026, 13:46 EST — Regular session
- Exxon shares rose about 3% in afternoon trade, even after the company flagged a Q4 upstream earnings headwind from lower crude.
- The company also pointed to a potential offset from stronger refining margins.
- Traders are watching oil-price swings and estimate changes into Exxon’s Jan. 30 results.
Exxon Mobil shares rose 3.3% to $122.42 by 1:46 p.m. EST on Thursday after the oil major said weaker crude prices could shave $0.8 billion to $1.2 billion off fourth-quarter upstream earnings versus the prior quarter. In the same filing, Exxon said stronger industry margins in its Energy Products segment could add $0.3 billion to $0.7 billion. 1
The update lands just as investors start setting their earnings-season pecking order for the big integrated oil names. Exxon’s “earnings considerations” snapshot is one of the few early guideposts the sector offers, and it can move estimates quickly when crude has been sliding.
Oil prices fell 9.2% in the quarter ended Dec. 31, as oversupply concerns and tariff worries outweighed geopolitical risks. Analysts polled by LSEG expect Exxon to post adjusted earnings of $1.66 per share, though Scotiabank analysts cautioned many brokers have “yet to mark to market,” a setup for trims. 2
Crude prices were firmer on Thursday, up about 2% as traders tracked Venezuela developments and supply risks in Russia, Iraq and Iran. Brent was up 2% at $61.17 a barrel and U.S. WTI gained 1.8% to $57.01 at 11:17 a.m. EST. Analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates wrote the “complex is rebounding,” while Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov warned Iranian exports “could be at risk,” depending on how unrest evolves. 3
Exxon’s upstream unit is its oil and gas production business, and it usually takes the first punch when crude or gas prices fall. Refining margins — the spread between crude costs and fuel prices — can soften that hit, but they can also turn fast.
The company said changes in gas prices could swing upstream earnings by a negative $0.3 billion to a positive $0.1 billion for the quarter, and it flagged restructuring charges of up to about $0.2 billion. Exxon also stressed the ranges are not a full earnings forecast and do not capture the quarter’s operating performance or unplanned downtime.
But the hedge here is thin: another leg down in crude or a squeeze in fuel margins would change the math, and the filing also listed potential one-offs that can swing reported profit. Markets have also been jumpy around geopolitics, which can push oil prices in either direction and, by extension, energy shares.
Next up is Exxon’s fourth-quarter report on Jan. 30, when investors will look for updated guidance signals and how much refining can offset softer crude in the final numbers.
