NEW YORK, January 3, 2026, 12:47 ET — Market closed
Exxon Mobil’s stock is poised for an oil-led repricing when U.S. markets reopen after President Donald Trump said the United States attacked Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro in an overnight operation. 1
Why this matters now: for Exxon and its peers, crude prices are still the biggest near-term swing factor, feeding through to upstream profits and cash returns. A sudden shift in Venezuelan supply expectations can ripple quickly across energy equities.
The market is closed, so Exxon investors cannot trade on Saturday’s headlines. The first clean read is likely to come from crude futures and then Monday’s U.S. equity open, as traders decide whether the news adds a risk premium or points to more supply later.
For oil markets, the Venezuela shock cuts two ways. Escalation typically lifts prices on disruption fears, while a credible path to more Venezuelan output would weigh on prices over time — a tug-of-war that can show up as volatility in major producers’ shares.
Two people with knowledge of PDVSA’s operations said Venezuela’s state-run oil production and refining were operating normally and suffered no damage from the U.S. strike, though one source said the port of La Guaira near Caracas was severely damaged and is not used for oil exports. Reuters also reported Trump announced a December blockade of oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela and the U.S. seized two cargoes, helping cut Venezuelan exports last month to about half of the 950,000 barrels per day shipped in November, according to monitoring data and internal documents. 2
Oil had already started 2026 on a soft footing before the weekend escalation. Brent crude futures settled down 10 cents at $60.75 a barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate eased 10 cents to $57.32, as traders weighed oversupply concerns against geopolitical risks. 3
Venezuela’s capacity to change the supply picture is large, but not quick. Reuters noted the country holds about 303 billion barrels of reserves and produced about 1.1 million barrels per day on average last year; “forced regime change rarely stabilises oil supply quickly,” Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said. 4
For Exxon, that puts the focus on price signals rather than direct exposure to Venezuelan barrels. Exxon’s investor relations site highlights record production in the Permian and Guyana, and it lists a “4Q25 Earnings Considerations” 8-K — a U.S. regulatory filing used to disclose material information — scheduled for after market close on Wednesday, Jan. 7. 5
Competitive context matters because broad energy ETFs and “big oil” baskets often trade as a group when crude gaps. Any oil-price move tied to Venezuela is likely to be read through to Exxon alongside other integrated majors.
Before next session
Investors will be watching for weekend updates on Venezuela’s oil exports and port operations, and whether Washington signals changes to its pressure campaign that could alter tanker flows and sanctions risk. Early moves in crude prices are likely to set the tone for energy stocks into the first session of the week.
Exxon last closed at $122.65 on Friday, up 1.9%, with the day’s range running from $119.66 to $122.78, according to market data. Peer Chevron ended at $155.90, up 2.3%. Traders often treat a prior day’s high as near-term resistance and a prior day’s low as near-term support when volatility spikes.
The next known company catalyst comes later this month: Investing.com lists Exxon’s next earnings report date as Jan. 30. Investors are likely to focus on realized oil-and-gas prices, refining margins and any updates on capital returns as they gauge whether a Venezuela-driven oil move is likely to flow through to results. 6
