New York, Feb 1, 2026, 19:45 EST — Market closed
- First Solar ended Friday at $225.52, gaining 0.7% following a steep drop the day before.
- Wall Street remains divided on Tesla’s solar push—some see it as a genuine threat, others as just headline noise.
First Solar shares closed Friday at $225.52, rising 0.7%. The stock wrapped up the week roughly 7% lower, following a sharp 10% plunge on Thursday. Friday’s extended session saw a slight dip in the last trade.
As the U.S. session kicks off, investors remain divided on whether last week’s drop was simply a sentiment adjustment or signals a deeper, prolonged pullback driven by new manufacturing rivals. This shift is crucial since the company’s bullish outlook has hinged on limited domestic supply and strong pricing.
BMO Capital Markets downgraded the stock, highlighting concerns over its pricing assumptions. The firm noted the valuation suggests a long-term “module price” around 29 cents per watt—an industry standard linking panel cost to its electricity output—while recent contracts have settled in the low 30s cents per watt. The report also pointed to forecasts for U.S. utility-scale solar growth, First Solar’s domestic capacity, and increasing local supply, including T1 Energy’s planned expansions, as crucial factors. Investing.com
Not all investors are convinced by the bearish outlook. Mizuho dismissed concerns about Tesla’s competition as “overdone,” pointing out that creating a fully U.S.-based solar supply chain demands heavy capital and time, with the U.S. short on upstream silicon supply. The firm doesn’t foresee any significant hit to First Solar’s earnings until at least 2030. TipRanks
The discussion stems from Elon Musk’s remarks during Tesla’s earnings call, where he claimed “the solar opportunity is underestimated” and outlined plans to scale up to “100 gigawatts a year of solar cell production.” The Motley Fool
Tesla is stepping up its hardware game. At a recent event, Colby Hastings, head of Tesla residential energy, said the company has now “fully designed and manufactured our own solar panel” for the first time, adding: “It’s available now.” Production has kicked off at Tesla’s Buffalo, New York plant, which has a capacity of over 300 megawatts annually, Canary Media reported. That’s a fraction of the more than 8 gigawatts in module capacity run by Qcells. Canary Media
Wells Fargo took a different stance. The bank pointed to Tesla’s goal of 100 gigawatts of U.S. solar capacity as the trigger for the sector selloff but noted minimal downside for First Solar, citing its cost edge and pricing power. Canadian Solar, however, was seen as more vulnerable.
The downside risks remain. Investors remain unsure about how quickly Tesla can ramp up production, whether it will offload surplus output to third parties, or how much extra U.S. supply could weigh on contract prices. Trade policy adds uncertainty: a Section 232 investigation — a national security review that can trigger tariffs — is targeting polysilicon and related materials, which are crucial components in the solar supply chain.
Traders are gearing up for Feb. 24, when First Solar will release its fourth-quarter and full-year results, along with 2026 guidance, after markets close. A conference call is set for 4:30 p.m. ET.
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