Ford Motor Company stock is in the spotlight on Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025, as investors digest a rapid-fire sequence of headlines: the automaker’s sweeping EV strategy overhaul, a $19.5 billion EV-related charge, and fresh confirmation that Ford has terminated a major EV battery-supply agreement with South Korea’s LG Energy Solution. [1]
As of 12:38 UTC (7:38 a.m. ET), Ford stock (F) traded around $13.31, down roughly 2.6% on the session.
Behind the day-to-day tape action is a bigger story: Ford is attempting one of the most expensive “course corrections” in the modern auto industry—pulling back from large, unprofitable battery EV bets in the U.S. while doubling down on what it believes customers will actually buy in volume: trucks, commercial vehicles, hybrids, and extended-range EVs (EREVs). [2]
What’s moving Ford stock on Dec. 18: the LG Energy Solution battery deal is officially over
The most time-sensitive headline today is not about Ford’s factories—it’s about its suppliers.
Reuters reported that LG Energy Solution (LGES) disclosed Ford had cancelled an EV battery supply deal valued at about 9.6 trillion won (roughly $6.5 billion). The contract was expected to begin in January 2027, and analysts cited in the report warned it may be hard for LGES to replace the volume quickly—one reason LGES shares fell sharply in Thursday trading. [3]
This matters for Ford investors for two reasons:
- It’s confirmation-by-contract that Ford’s planned EV production footprint for the late 2020s is smaller than previously envisioned.
- It highlights how the EV pullback doesn’t just hit Ford’s income statement—it reshapes its entire supply chain ecosystem, including European battery sourcing plans. [4]
The $19.5 billion EV charge: what it is (and what it isn’t)
Ford’s strategic reset comes with a headline-grabbing $19.5 billion charge tied to EV and battery investments. The key nuance: not all of it is cash, and Ford says the cash impact is about $5.5 billion, largely spread across 2026 and 2027. [5]
Reuters’ breakdown of the charge included:
- About $8.5 billion tied to cancelled future EVs
- Roughly $6 billion related to a battery joint venture write-down/disposition with SK On
- Around $5 billion in other program-related expenses
- Estimated cash impact of about $5.5 billion over the next couple of years [6]
Ford’s own materials also emphasize timing: a large portion lands in Q4 2025, with remaining impacts into 2026–2027, and the company reiterates that the actions aim to put its EV operations on a path to profitability by 2029. [7]
Translation for stock-watchers: this is a “rip the bandage off” moment. Investors often hate uncertainty more than bad news—so a big write-down can sometimes function like a reset button, especially if it reduces years of future losses. That framing also appeared in analyst reactions cited by Reuters. [8]
Ford’s EV pivot in plain English: less “all-in EV,” more “choose-your-powertrain”
Ford isn’t abandoning electrification. It’s changing the form factor and the economics of electrification.
The F-150 Lightning isn’t disappearing—its next chapter is EREV
A centerpiece of Ford’s plan is shifting the next-generation F-150 Lightning concept toward an extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) setup—an electric drive experience paired with an onboard gas-powered generator to extend range. Reuters described Ford targeting around 700 miles of range for the EREV concept. [9]
Ford also stated the current Lightning generation has concluded, and the company is reassigning workers as it reshapes production plans. [10]
The strategic logic is blunt and very American: pickup buyers want capability, towing confidence, and long-distance usability—without living their lives around charging stops.
Major factory repurposing: Tennessee and Ohio get “de-EV’d”
Ford says the Tennessee Electric Vehicle Center at BlueOval City is being renamed the Tennessee Truck Plant, and will produce new “Built Ford Tough” truck models with production starting in 2029—replacing what had been planned as next-gen electric truck output. [11]
Separately, Ford says its Ohio Assembly Plant will become a key hub for Ford Pro, building a new gas and hybrid commercial van starting in 2029. [12]
The implication for Ford stock: management is placing a very large bet that “profit per vehicle” will be better protected by leaning into trucks/vans and hybridization rather than forcing large EV volumes that don’t pencil out (especially without supportive policy). [13]
The surprising “new Ford” angle: batteries for data centers and the power grid
One of the most marketable parts of Ford’s announcement—because it plugs into the AI zeitgeist—is the launch of a battery energy storage system business.
Ford says it will repurpose battery capacity in Glendale, Kentucky to manufacture large-scale energy storage systems, plans to invest about $2 billion to scale the business, and targets deploying at least 20 GWh annually by late 2027. [14]
Reuters explicitly linked this to demand from AI data centers and energy infrastructure. [15]
S&P Global’s energy coverage framed the move as part of a broader response to a tougher U.S. EV environment heading into 2026, with data-center storage demand as a potentially attractive adjacent market. [16]
Is this “the next Tesla Energy”? Not automatically. But it does signal Ford is trying to monetize sunk battery investments in a different demand channel—rather than letting underutilized assets just sit there as expensive paperweights.
A global headache: build for the U.S., or build for the world?
Ford’s EV retreat is also a geography problem.
Reuters highlighted a dilemma facing legacy automakers: even if U.S. incentives and compliance pressure ease, Europe and China still push EV adoption, which can force automakers into multiple regional product strategies (and higher costs) rather than a single “world car” approach. [17]
That matters because Ford is not only a U.S. truck story. It has meaningful international operations, and it has been repositioning its European business—Ford’s materials also referenced a strategic partnership with Renault to collaborate on EV development in commercial and passenger segments. [18]
Updated guidance and the next earnings date: what Ford itself is telling investors to watch
Ford raised its 2025 adjusted EBIT guidance to about $7 billion and reaffirmed adjusted free cash flow guidance of $2–$3 billion, trending toward the high end. [19]
Crucially for anyone covering Ford stock in the next cycle: Ford says it plans to report Q4 and full-year 2025 results on Tuesday, Feb. 10. [20]
That Feb. 10 report is likely to become the “truth serum” event where investors learn:
- how the EV charge impacts segment reporting,
- how management frames 2026 demand and pricing,
- and whether the pivot improves the forward profit narrative—or merely acknowledges a slower-growth reality.
Ford stock forecast: analyst ratings, price targets, and what “Wall Street consensus” looks like now
Analyst expectations for Ford stock (F) remain notably cautious, even after the strategy reset.
- Investing.com’s compiled analyst data shows a “Neutral” consensus and an average price target around $12.89, with a wide spread between low and high targets. [21]
- A MarketBeat roundup published today reported a “Hold” consensus from a group of research firms and cited an average 1-year price objective around $12.04. [22]
Two important takeaways for readers searching “Ford stock forecast 2026”:
- The Street is not pricing Ford like a high-growth EV winner. It’s valuing Ford like a cyclical industrial that must defend margins through strategy discipline.
- The dispersion in targets signals that the next 12–18 months may be about execution quality and macro conditions, not just product announcements.
Additional risk backdrop: recalls and the “quality tax” on Ford’s valuation
One evergreen issue for Ford stock has been quality and recall-related costs.
This week, Reuters reported Ford is recalling 32,160 vehicles in the U.S. related to a potential loss of drive power (per NHTSA), underscoring how operational issues can still deliver financial and reputational hits even as strategy shifts dominate headlines. [23]
Investors tend to treat recalls like a slow leak in the profit boat: not always dramatic, but persistently value-eroding if they become frequent and costly.
The bull case vs. bear case for Ford stock from here
Reasons Ford bulls are still in the game
- Trucks and commercial vehicles remain Ford’s core profit engine. The strategy explicitly reinvests in those strengths. [24]
- Hybrids and EREVs may meet the market where it actually is, especially if charging infrastructure and battery costs remain friction points for mainstream buyers. [25]
- The energy storage move could turn “EV overbuild” into a grid/AI infrastructure revenue line, potentially smoothing cyclicality if executed well. [26]
Reasons Ford bears aren’t going extinct
- The reset includes real cash costs (Ford estimates about $5.5B), and execution risk is high across product, manufacturing, and supply chain timelines. [27]
- The LGES contract termination is a reminder that Ford’s EV volume assumptions are shifting—and suppliers, partners, and investors all feel those ripples. [28]
- Policy uncertainty cuts both ways: easing EV pressure may help near-term profits, but global EV competition (especially from China) continues to evolve fast. [29]
Bottom line for Ford stock on Dec. 18, 2025
Ford stock is trading inside a collision of narratives:
- Near term: big charges, partner contracts unwinding, and the market trying to decide whether “less EV ambition” is a retreat or a rational optimization. [30]
- Medium term: execution—can Ford deliver hybrids/EREVs customers want while controlling costs, protecting pricing, and reducing the “quality tax”? [31]
- Long term: whether Ford’s electrification strategy (now centered on affordable EV platforms, hybrids, and energy storage) can still compete globally while keeping returns acceptable for shareholders. [32]
The next major checkpoint on the calendar is Ford’s Feb. 10 earnings report, when the company will have to translate this week’s strategy into credible numbers investors can model. [33]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. s205.q4cdn.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. s205.q4cdn.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. s205.q4cdn.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. s205.q4cdn.com, 11. s205.q4cdn.com, 12. s205.q4cdn.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. s205.q4cdn.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.spglobal.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. s205.q4cdn.com, 19. s205.q4cdn.com, 20. s205.q4cdn.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. s205.q4cdn.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. s205.q4cdn.com, 27. s205.q4cdn.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. s205.q4cdn.com, 33. s205.q4cdn.com
