Fortescue Ltd is ending 2025 in a very strange place: profits are down sharply, yet the share price is hovering around record highs. At the same time, the company is scrapping some flagship green hydrogen projects while doubling down on green iron and large‑scale batteries.
As of 4–5 December 2025, Fortescue’s share price is trading around A$21.6–A$21.8, just under its 52‑week high of about A$22.03 and miles above its 52‑week low near A$13–14. [1] That’s roughly a 50%+ rebound from the April lows and values the miner at around A$66.5 billion, on a trailing P/E of about 13 and a dividend yield around 5%. [2]
Below is a structured look at the latest news, forecasts and analysis as of 5 December 2025, aimed at readers following Fortescue on Google News or Discover.
1. Fortescue share price today: expensive, cheap… or both?
Different parts of the market are looking at the same numbers and seeing very different things.
- Spot snapshot: Fortescue closed on 4 December at A$21.63, with intraday trading on 5 December around the high‑A$21s. Technical services flag it as a short‑term “buy candidate”, noting a positive trend and support just below current levels. [3]
- 52‑week range: 12‑month trading has spanned roughly A$13.18–A$22.03, meaning the stock is currently near the very top of its range. [4]
On valuation, the picture is mixed:
- A discounted cash‑flow model from Simply Wall St estimates “fair value” around A$18.99, suggesting the stock is about 14% overvalued at current prices.
- On simple multiples, Fortescue trades at roughly 13× trailing earnings, cheaper than many global iron‑ore peers that still sit on high‑teens multiples. [5]
So depending on your lens, Fortescue is either a slightly stretched income stock or a still‑reasonable cyclical trading near peak optimism.
2. FY25 earnings and dividend: profits plunge, cash machine still humming
Fortescue’s FY25 (year to June 2025) results are the big macro backdrop to the current rally – and they were ugly at headline level. [6]
Key numbers:
- Net profit after tax (NPAT): down 41% to about US$3.37 billion (from US$5.68b the year before).
- Revenue: down 15% to about US$15.5 billion, as realised hematite prices fell from roughly US$103/t to US$85/t.
- Underlying EBITDA: down 26% to US$7.9 billion, with margins compressing from 59% to 51%.
- Shipments: up 4% to a record ~198.4 million tonnes, highlighting that operations are actually running very well.
- Costs: C1 cash costs stayed extremely low around US$17.99 per wet tonne, keeping Fortescue firmly in the lowest cost quartile globally.
On dividends, the reset is real:
- FY25 dividends totalled A$1.10 per share (A$0.50 interim + A$0.60 final), the smallest payout since 2018 and down sharply from almost A$2.00 in FY24. [7]
- The payout ratio stayed at the low end of Fortescue’s policy at 65% of NPAT, down from the 70–80% region investors had become used to in boom years. [8]
At today’s share price, that A$1.10 dividend gives a trailing yield of roughly 5%, still attractive by ASX 200 standards, but meaningfully less eye‑watering than the double‑digit yields that hooked many retail investors in the last cycle. [9]
The bigger message from the result: Fortescue is still a cash machine, but the iron‑ore tide went out, and management is deliberately holding more cash back to fund decarbonisation and growth.
3. Fresh December news: batteries, green iron and solar in the Pilbara
Where things get interesting – and where a lot of today’s newsflow is clustering – is Fortescue’s green energy build‑out. In late November and early December, three announcements landed that matter for the long‑term narrative.
3.1. First large‑scale BYD battery system in the Pilbara
On 1 December 2025, Fortescue announced it has delivered its first large‑scale Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) to North Star Junction in the Pilbara. [10]
Highlights:
- Built with BYD’s Blade battery technology.
- Comprises 48 storage containers with 250 MWh of storage capacity.
- Can deliver up to 50 MW for around five hours, feeding Fortescue’s Pilbara Energy Connect network at night using solar generated during the day.
This is the first step in a planned 4–5 GWh rollout of large battery systems to decarbonise Fortescue’s mine power supply. Management is blunt: these batteries are meant to displace diesel and gas and stabilise a renewables‑heavy grid over time. [11]
For investors, the signal is:
this is no longer just PowerPoint‑level “green pivot”; it’s concrete hardware in the dirt, connected to the core iron‑ore business.
3.2. New green‑iron trial with China’s TISCO / Baowu
On 4 December 2025, Fortescue unveiled a technology development agreement with Taiyuan Iron and Steel (TISCO), part of Chinese steel giant Baowu, to trial hydrogen‑based plasma‑enhanced metallurgy. [12]
The plan:
- Design, build and operate a pilot test line capable of producing up to 5,000 tonnes of molten iron per year.
- Use a hydrogen‑based plasma process that aims to bypass sintering, pelletising and coking, the most carbon‑intensive parts of traditional blast‑furnace steelmaking.
- Test the compatibility of this route with Fortescue’s Pilbara ores.
Fortescue is funding the program and forming a joint technical committee with TISCO. The move follows earlier “green iron” ambitions that were delayed to around 2026, but it keeps Fortescue squarely in the race to supply low‑carbon steel to Chinese customers. [13]
For the share price, this is less about immediate earnings and more about option value: if green iron becomes a mainstream requirement for steel mills, the miners who can supply it at scale will wield serious pricing power.
3.3. Pilbara Solar Innovation Hub backed by ARENA
Earlier in November, the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) committed A$45 million to Fortescue’s Pilbara Solar Innovation Hub, aimed at testing advanced solar and storage technologies suitable for remote, harsh mining environments. [14]
Put together with the BYD battery rollout, Fortescue is essentially trying to re‑platform its Pilbara power system around renewables and storage by 2030.
4. Green hydrogen retreat: cancelled projects and political risk
The flip side of the green story is that 2025 has been brutal for Fortescue’s early hydrogen ambitions, especially in the US and Australia.
4.1. Arizona and Gladstone projects cancelled
Over the northern summer, Fortescue:
- Cancelled a planned US$550m green hydrogen project in Buckeye, Arizona, and
- Abandoned its PEM50 electrolyser‑based hydrogen project in Gladstone, Queensland,
citing a mix of commercial challenges and shifting policy under the Trump administration. [15]
Key points from coverage and management commentary:
- Trump‑era rollbacks and uncertainty around the 45V US hydrogen production tax credit changed the economics for the Arizona plant. [16]
- Fortescue has agreed with Australian governments to repay taxpayer funds tied to the failed Gladstone project, after receiving tens of millions in grants. [17]
- Executives stress they are not abandoning hydrogen entirely, but are pivoting toward more cost‑effective technologies and closer integration with their metals business.
These cancellations are a useful reminder that policy risk is not an abstract MBA concept – it can kill multi‑hundred‑million‑dollar projects overnight.
4.2. Fortescue Zero job cuts and UK manufacturing pull‑back
More recently, Fortescue has begun slimming down its Fortescue Zero division, which was built around the acquisition of Williams Advanced Engineering in the UK. [18]
According to reporting:
- Several hundred jobs will go, mostly in the UK but also in Australia.
- Plans to build almost 400 battery‑electric haul trucks in the UK have been scrapped.
- Battery manufacturing is being shifted to China, with the UK operation refocused on R&D, battery software and consulting.
This again fits the pattern: less big‑ticket manufacturing experiments, more focus on deployable tech that supports core mining operations.
4.3. Forrest doubles down rhetorically on renewables
Despite all of the above, Executive Chairman Andrew Forrest has been very public about doubling down on renewables, even picking public fights with President Trump over climate policy. [19]
Fortescue continues to:
- Buy technology firms (for example, Spanish wind‑tech company Nabrawind).
- Plan large fleets of battery‑powered mining trucks.
- Aim for 2–3 GW of renewables and storage at its Australian iron‑ore operations by 2030. [20]
From a stock perspective, this leaves Fortescue as a hybrid:
part world‑class low‑cost iron ore miner, part high‑beta decarbonisation project tangled up in geopolitics.
5. Balance sheet and funding: Chinese yuan loan and bond buybacks
All this capex needs money, and Fortescue has been quietly reshaping its balance sheet in 2025.
5.1. Syndicated term loan in Chinese yuan
In August 2025, Fortescue secured a ¥14.2 billion (≈A$3.0 billion) syndicated term loan from a group of Australian, Chinese and international lenders. [21]
- Tenor: five years, with repayments starting 18 months after close.
- Fixed annual interest rate: 3.8%, which management says is the lowest cost of debt Fortescue has ever achieved.
- Lead arrangers: the Sydney branches of Bank of China and ICBC.
This does several things at once: lowers the average cost of capital, deepens relationships with Chinese lenders, and gives Fortescue more firepower to fund energy projects without squeezing the dividend even further.
5.2. US$600m bond tender offer
In October, Fortescue launched a US$600 million tender offer to buy back portions of three bond issues maturing between 2030 and 2032 via its Fortescue Treasury subsidiary. [22]
Together with the yuan loan, this looks like a classic maturity and cost‑of‑debt optimisation exercise: pay down higher‑coupon US bonds, replace them with cheaper yuan debt, and keep the balance sheet ready for volatile iron‑ore cycles.
6. What analysts and models are forecasting for Fortescue
If you zoom out from the day‑to‑day newsflow, the analyst and model landscape is… very split.
6.1. Broker research: cautious consensus, Macquarie still bearish
On the broker side:
- TipRanks collates 11 recent analyst ratings on ASX:FMG and shows an overall “Hold” consensus, with 2 Buy, 7 Hold, 2 Sell, and an average 12‑month price target in the high‑A$18s. That implies roughly 10–15% downside from current prices. [23]
- Several brokers cluster around targets in the A$17–A$19 range, broadly arguing that the recent share‑price run has already priced in strong iron ore and much of the green upside. [24]
Macquarie has been the most vocal bear:
- In late August it downgraded Fortescue to “Underperform” with a A$15.50 target, implying around 20% downside at the time. [25]
- A later October note retained the underperform stance with the target nudged up to about A$18.50, still implying around 10% downside from late‑October levels. [26]
Macquarie’s worry list is basically:
- Iron ore prices could retreat from current levels.
- Fortescue’s 65% payout ratio suggests management is consciously keeping more cash back for capex and potential price weakness. [27]
- Decarbonisation spending and fleet replacement could pin capex near US$4 billion a year towards 2030, pressuring free cash flow if the cycle turns down. [28]
6.2. Quant and technical models: short‑term bullish, long‑term spooky
Algorithmic and technical services are less philosophical and more mechanical:
- StockInvest.us calls ASX:FMG a short‑term “buy candidate”, with positive momentum and technical support around A$20. It notes the 52‑week high at A$22.03 and confirms the 4 December close at A$21.63. [29]
- Meyka AI, a long‑horizon quant service, is dramatically more pessimistic: its 2030 model spits out a forecast around A$7.18, implying a two‑thirds price drop from current levels and a “bearish” long‑term outlook. [30]
That sort of 2030 number should be treated as a thought experiment, not destiny. Seven‑year point forecasts for a single commodity stock are basically elaborate storytelling with extra matrix algebra.
7. How the market is framing the story today
Two recent pieces capture how the market is thinking about Fortescue at this exact moment.
7.1. “Green push” versus valuation debate
A 5 December feature on Kalkine Media (“Fortescue’s Green Push: What the Market Is Weighing Now”) argues that the key question is not whether Fortescue is “good” or “bad”, but how much of the green upside is already in the price. [31]
The article emphasises:
- Battery deployments and other on‑site projects are hard evidence that the decarbonisation plan is moving from concept to execution.
- Hydrogen remains further out on the risk curve – more policy dependent, more technology‑ and infrastructure‑heavy.
- The valuation debate is really about execution and capital discipline: can Fortescue fund its transition without permanently sacrificing returns and dividends?
7.2. Hybrid “iron ore + green energy” identity
A late‑November analysis from TS2.Tech paints Fortescue as a hybrid animal: still a core iron‑ore producer tied to Chinese steel demand, but increasingly viewed as a long‑duration decarbonisation platform. TechStock²+1
It highlights:
- Solid operational trends, including record Q1 FY26 shipments and iron ore prices still above US$100/t.
- Heightened strategic risk due to big green‑capex commitments and the need to keep investors comfortable with the dividend while spending billions on transformation.
- The fact that FMG shares are trading near the top of their recent range with volatility that mirrors macro shocks in China and global risk sentiment. TechStock²+1
8. Key risks and drivers to watch into 2026
If you’re trying to work out whether today’s near‑record share price is sustainable, most professional commentary keeps circling back to the same cluster of drivers:
- Iron ore price and China’s steel demand
- Green‑capex execution and returns
- Battery systems, solar hubs and green‑iron pilots are capital‑intensive. The big investor question: do they earn their keep, or are they long‑dated science projects subsidised by iron ore cashflows? [34]
- Policy and geopolitical risk
- Capital allocation: debt, dividends and buybacks
- Internal restructuring risk
- Job cuts and the retreat from UK manufacturing in Fortescue Zero highlight that some early bets were mis‑aimed or too ambitious. Execution risk in new technologies is very real, not just marketing copy. [39]
9. Bottom line: what this all means for Fortescue stock
Putting it all together:
- The bull case is straightforward: Fortescue is still one of the lowest‑cost iron‑ore producers in the world, with strong cash generation, a solid balance sheet, and credible progress on decarbonising its operations and customer base. If iron ore holds up and green projects deliver acceptable returns, shareholders get a blend of income, growth and climate‑transition exposure. [40]
- The bear case is equally clear: profits fell more than 40% in a single year, dividends are down, the stock is trading near record highs, and the company is committing billions to projects exposed to policy swings and technology risk. If iron ore rolls over or capex balloons, today’s price could look very generous in hindsight. [41]
For now, the market’s centre of gravity seems to be:
- “Hold” on fundamental broker research, with average targets below the current price; [42]
- Short‑term positive from technical models; [43]
- Long‑term highly uncertain, especially once you factor in hydrogen policy, China demand, and the possibility that green‑steel technology evolves in unexpected directions. [44]
Important note
This article is general information only, based on publicly available sources as of 5 December 2025. It is not financial advice and doesn’t take into account your personal circumstances, objectives or risk tolerance. Always cross‑check numbers with the latest ASX announcements and consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. stockinvest.us, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockinvest.us, 4. stockinvest.us, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stocksdownunder.com, 7. stocksdownunder.com, 8. mine.h5mag.com, 9. stockanalysis.com, 10. www.fortescue.com, 11. www.fortescue.com, 12. www.fortescue.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.fortescue.com, 15. www.theguardian.com, 16. rbnenergy.com, 17. www.theaustralian.com.au, 18. www.theaustralian.com.au, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. mining.com.au, 22. mining.com.au, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. discoveryalert.com.au, 25. discoveryalert.com.au, 26. discoveryalert.com.au, 27. discoveryalert.com.au, 28. discoveryalert.com.au, 29. stockinvest.us, 30. meyka.com, 31. kalkinemedia.com, 32. stocksdownunder.com, 33. stocksdownunder.com, 34. www.fortescue.com, 35. rbnenergy.com, 36. mining.com.au, 37. mining.com.au, 38. stocksdownunder.com, 39. www.theaustralian.com.au, 40. stocksdownunder.com, 41. stocksdownunder.com, 42. www.tipranks.com, 43. stockinvest.us, 44. www.reuters.com
