LONDON, March 2, 2026, 08:55 GMT
- Fresnillo (FRES.L) tacked on roughly 1% early, building on a solid rally that’s been running since the year began.
- Fair value estimates from Simply Wall St and Yahoo Finance both land under the most recent closing price.
- Full-year 2025 earnings from the miner are set for release on March 3
Fresnillo (FRES.L) tacked on another 1.1% by 08:54 GMT Monday, last changing hands at 4,288 pence. That brings its five-day run close to 7%, with the shares now up roughly 28% since Jan. 1. The pace has reignited arguments over what the miner’s valuation really should be.
Looking ahead, Fresnillo’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results are coming up soon, with a release date set for March 3, according to the company calendar on MarketScreener.
Miners aren’t finding much discipline, with the wider market offering little support. Spot gold jumped 1.9% to $5,376 an ounce, silver climbed 1.3% to $95, both moving by 06:32 GMT as safe-haven buying picked up on geopolitical unease, according to Reuters. “The dynamic for gold is pretty positive,” Capital.com’s Kyle Rodda said. Reuters
That environment tends to lift earnings forecasts, though it can also push them too high. According to a valuation piece published by Yahoo Finance, the dominant “narrative” fair value pinned on Fresnillo stands at £35 a share—still trailing its most recent close of £42.40. Yahoo Finance
Simply Wall St’s own take put the stock at roughly 101% overvalued using a discounted cash flow (DCF) approach. DCF, which discounts a company’s expected future cash flows to their present value at a given rate, pointed to Fresnillo pulling in about $1.39 billion in free cash flow during the past year, with projections rising to $1.72 billion by 2028. The shares, though, were changing hands at a P/E multiple near 92—investors paying up for every pound of profit.
Fresnillo shares were changing hands at £42.40, well above Simply Wall St’s estimated future cash flow value of £21.09. Their valuation dashboard also listed the stock’s P/E ratio at a steep 92.3, nearly triple the 29.2 average among peers like Antofagasta, Rio Tinto, Hochschild Mining and Pan African Resources. Analyst consensus put the 12-month price target at £38.21, based on views from 13 analysts.
Valuations for miners often whip around. When metal prices climb, profits spike; as prices ease or costs rise, earnings can fall back—multiples end up looking stretched or compressed, depending on the cycle.
Fresnillo digs up silver and gold in Mexico, giving investors a way to play both metals and the company’s delivery. The latest surge in the shares says it all: the market’s counting on strong cash flow to stick around.
The disconnect between where the market trades and what models suggest is fair value mostly boils down to a handful of assumptions—duration of elevated metal prices, the trajectory of sustaining capital, and timing on any expected production growth.
But leverage cuts both ways. If gold or silver prices drop, or if production stumbles or costs creep up, cash flow could tighten fast—shrinking the space for any kind of premium valuation.
Tuesday’s results are set to clarify margins, spending plans, and near-term guidance. If cash remains solid, expectations for dividends could shift.
