LONDON, July 26, 2026, 16:53 BST
- The FTSE 100 closed Friday at 10,736.23, an increase of 1.28% compared to July 17.
- Each of the 70 economists polled anticipates the Bank of England will keep rates steady at 3.75% on Thursday.
- Initial estimates indicate that energy represents 62% of the expected incremental earnings growth for the STOXX 600.
Energy could contribute roughly 62% of the anticipated growth in European earnings for the second quarter. With that early estimate, the FTSE 100’s performance this week is more reliant on oil than usual. The resulting oil surge is also pushing up inflation and bond yields.
London Stock Exchange Group LON:LSEG data shows headline growth at 17.3%. Excluding energy, the estimate drops to 7.2%. Energy alone is projected to expand by 122.6%. The data applies to the STOXX 600, covering Europe beyond the UK.
| Q2 earnings measure | Forecast | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| STOXX 600, all sectors | +17.3% | Overall earnings increase |
| STOXX 600, excluding energy | +7.2% | General earnings trajectory |
| Energy sector | +122.6% | Key driver of earnings |
| Energy share of incremental growth | About 62% | Significant earnings concentration |
Initial implied-base estimate. This calculation uses uniform comparison bases in the available forecasts. Energy accounts for approximately 10.7 percentage points out of the total 17.3% rise. This is not an estimate by LSEG.
London markets did not open as of the Sunday deadline. On Friday, the FTSE 100 added 0.9% to finish at 10,736.23. This marked a 1.28% increase for the week when compared to the July 17 close. The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 logged their second consecutive weekly gains.
Brent finished Friday at $96.78, marking a gain of almost 10% for the week. The day before, it had ended above $100. A halt in US-Iran hostilities over the weekend could temper risk sentiment at Monday’s open. Ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities continue to fuel concerns about supply.
The corporate schedule is wide-ranging, though five main groups stand out.
| Date | Key UK results | Main investor test |
|---|---|---|
| Monday, July 27 | AstraZeneca LON:AZN; Vodafone Group LON:VOD | Progress on drug development; service income |
| Tuesday, July 28 | Barclays LON:BARC; GSK LON:GSK; Unilever LON:ULVR | Net interest returns; drug pipeline updates; pricing and volume trends |
| Wednesday, July 29 | Rio Tinto LON:RIO; Glencore LON:GLEN; Standard Chartered (LON:STAN) | Copper output and mining; Asian lending |
| Thursday, July 30 | Shell LON:SHEL; Lloyds Banking Group LON:LLOY; Rolls-Royce Holdings LON:RR; Anglo American LON:AAL | Oil sector prospects; profit margins; available cash |
| Friday, July 31 | NatWest Group LON:NWG; International Consolidated Airlines Group LON:IAG; Taylor Wimpey (LON:TW) | Profit margins; ticket prices and energy costs; appetite for homes |
Shell’s earnings offer the most straightforward measure of profit concentration. The quarter concluded prior to the notable climb in oil prices in July. As a result, investors may focus more on outlook and cash returns rather than past performance figures. Broader commodity demand will be assessed by Rio Tinto, Glencore and Anglo American.
Barclays, Standard Chartered, Lloyds and NatWest are set to announce earnings around the time of both rate decisions. Each of the 70 economists surveyed anticipates the BoE will keep rates at 3.75% on Thursday. Attention will likely focus more on the policy report and how the vote is divided than on the headline rate.
British companies anticipate price increases of 3.9% over the year ahead, down from 4.1% previously. Expectations for wage growth slipped to 3.4%. Investec (LON:INVP) economist Ellie Henderson described the outlook as “extremely fluid.” She continues to predict no change this year. Reuters
The Federal Reserve will hold meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday, announcing its decision at 19:00 BST Wednesday. Every one of the 104 analysts surveyed anticipated rates to remain at 3.50%-3.75%. However, 44 out of 67 assessed the likelihood of an increase as high.
Rolls-Royce serves as another indicator of the rally’s scope across industry. Early estimates see first-half operating profit coming in at around £1.9 billion, marking an increase of roughly 10%. The company’s management projects full-year operating profit in the range of £4.0 billion to £4.2 billion.
Local economic figures strengthened ahead of the rates verdict. Retail sales in June climbed 1.0%, surpassing expectations for a 0.3% decline. The composite PMI for July increased to 52.1 from 49.3.
Chris Williamson, economist at S&P Global NYSE:SPGI, noted a caution. “Part of the recent factory upturn could prove short-lived,” he said. The Guardian
Sterling closed Friday around $1.3318, marking a weekly decline of roughly 1%. The yield on 10-year gilts settled at approximately 5.05%. A softer pound tends to boost the value of overseas revenues once converted. Elevated yields place strain on housebuilders and other shares sensitive to interest rates.
Risks: A lasting truce may rapidly reverse changes in oil and energy trade. Fresh attacks could push inflation, yields, and airline fuel prices higher. Both scenarios threaten one faction in London’s divide.
The most significant indicator this week is not overall earnings growth, but whether non-energy firms can keep pace with the profit surge driven by oil. The outlook from Shell and BoE’s statements on inflation are expected to offer the most definitive insight.
