NEW YORK, Jan 21, 2026, 07:25 EST — Premarket
- February RBOB gasoline futures climbed roughly 0.7% in early trading.
- AAA data showed the U.S. national average pump price ticked up slightly from Tuesday.
- Traders await the delayed U.S. stockpile reports, looking for a fresh directional cue.
NYMEX February RBOB gasoline, the key U.S. wholesale gasoline contract, gained 1.27 cents—roughly 0.7%—to hit $1.8365 a gallon in early Wednesday trading.
Gasoline grabs attention as the most obvious energy cost for consumers, with futures often influencing pump prices after a delay. This week, all eyes are on inventory data as traders try to gauge if supply is outpacing demand heading into winter trading.
Oil prices edged lower Wednesday as traders weighed a forecasted rise in U.S. crude stocks against a brief outage at two major Kazakh oil fields. Adding to the cautious mood were tariff threats linked to President Donald Trump’s Greenland policy, analysts told Reuters. At 1125 GMT, Brent dipped 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $64.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate lost 11 cents, also 0.2%, settling at $60.25. IG’s Tony Sycamore described the Kazakh shutdown as temporary but noted “downward pressure” from inventory builds and geopolitical tensions could persist. A Reuters poll expects U.S. crude inventories to rise by roughly 1.7 million barrels, with the API report due Wednesday and EIA data out Thursday. Reuters
AAA reported the national average price for regular gasoline at $2.833 a gallon on Wednesday, edging up about a penny from Tuesday’s $2.822. That’s still roughly 29 cents cheaper than this time last year. Diesel prices averaged $3.531, according to AAA data.
Retail and wholesale prices rarely move in sync. Factors like taxes, local competition, and blending expenses can either dampen or boost the daily swings seen in futures.
RBOB futures, priced in dollars and cents per gallon, cover 42,000 gallons each and trade on CME Group’s NYMEX platform. Traders use this contract to hedge against fuel price changes and to speculate on shifts driven by crude oil, refinery production, and regulations.
The Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report will come out Thursday, Jan. 22, with releases set for 12 p.m. and 2 p.m. ET. A federal government closure on Monday pushed the schedule back, according to the agency’s calendar.
Gasoline traders zero in on three main points in the report: finished gasoline inventories, refinery utilization rates, and implied demand. When inventories draw down, prompt supply tightens. If there’s a build, it can quickly drag down the front end of the curve.
Gasoline prices can still drop even if crude holds steady, particularly when refiners maintain output and inventories swell at major hubs. A larger-than-anticipated rise in gasoline stocks in the upcoming data could weigh heavily on the February contract.
Thursday’s U.S. inventory update is next up, with traders eager to see if crude and gasoline stock numbers back up recent trends — or if demand has been misjudged following the holiday slowdown.
