LONDON, March 26, 2026, 09:22 GMT
- Spot gold slipped 1.2% to $4,451.47 an ounce as of 0811 GMT. Spot silver dropped 2.7%, trading at $69.36.
- Brent crude pushed up to $104.30 a barrel, with inflation worries resurfacing as hopes for a ceasefire slipped away.
Gold slid over 1% Thursday, with silver posting an even steeper drop, after oil climbed back above $100 a barrel. Confusion around a U.S. plan to resolve the Iran war fueled inflation and interest-rate worries, pulling traders away from precious metals. The move kept gold and silver weighed down, despite persistent geopolitical tensions.
Gold typically serves as a crisis hedge, but this time, the market’s not responding in the usual way. Rising crude prices are stoking bets that central banks hold rates higher—or even hike—which makes the zero-yield metal less appealing.
Spot gold slipped 1.2% to $4,451.47 an ounce as of 0811 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery lost 2.3%, settling at $4,448. Spot silver dropped 2.7% to $69.36. Platinum was down 2.3%, and palladium declined 2.5%. The slide hit all major precious metals.
Odds of a U.S. rate hike by December have climbed to 37%, CME FedWatch data shows, while traders are barely pricing in any chance of a cut. That’s a sharp shift from earlier expectations: before the conflict, at least two cuts were widely anticipated this year.
Trade nerves were on display Wednesday. Gold initially bounced back, up 1.8% to $4,552.94, helped by a pullback in oil and some cooling in rate hike fears. That uptick faded quickly.
Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, pointed to optimism around easing Iran-related tensions as a factor behind the rebound. That sentiment faded by Thursday, though, as Brent slipped to $104.30 a barrel at 0638 GMT.
Charu Chanana, Saxo’s chief investment strategist, put it bluntly: “one peace rumour does not undo the inflation and rates damage already in the system.” Ilya Spivak, who runs global macro at Tastylive, broke down the reaction: war pushes up inflation, central banks step in, and tighter rates hit gold. Reuters
It’s not just about the Fed. On Wednesday, ECB President Christine Lagarde floated the idea of a “measured” rate hike if the war ends up pushing euro zone inflation past target. That’s another signal bullion’s facing bigger forces: a potential global shift in rate expectations. Reuters
Positioning is playing its part as well. Helen Jewell, international chief investment officer for fundamental equities at BlackRock, noted in a Reuters piece that gold is now “a very crowded trade.” In her view, with so much money flowing in, plenty of investors are on the same side, leaving the metal vulnerable if fund managers start de-risking and moving to cash. Reuters
But technicals might take a back seat here. For Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, the next 24 to 48 hours are set to hinge on news out of negotiation rooms. Major price action probably waits until it’s clearer if Washington is going to ramp up its military response.
If diplomacy takes a softer line and oil prices drop, gold might find some footing. Grant thinks gold has a shot at $5,000—if inflation fears cool off enough to revive talk of a U.S. rate cut. On the flip side, a sharper energy jolt could tip things, putting both gold and silver at risk for renewed selling pressure.
Despite the recent tumble, conditions remain extraordinary. Gold surged 64% last year and set a record at $5,594.82 on Jan. 29. Now, though, it’s staring down a 14% monthly decline—its worst since October 2008.
