New York, Feb 6, 2026, 08:38 EST — Premarket
Gold steadied in early trade on Friday after a week of whipsaw moves, as CME Group tightened requirements for traders in U.S. futures markets. The exchange raised initial and maintenance margins on COMEX 100-ounce gold futures to 9% from 8% for Non-HRP accounts, its third hike since a Jan. 13 methodology change, while spot gold was up 2.6% around $4,895 an ounce. Margins are deposits traders post to cover potential losses. 1
For the gold price forecast for 2026, the latest Reuters poll of 30 analysts and traders put the median annual average at $4,746.50 per troy ounce, the standard bullion unit. The poll landed after bullion ran up to just shy of $5,600 on Jan. 29 and slid to $4,403 on Monday. “The institutions and systems … are being tested in ways not seen in a generation,” said David Russell, CEO of dealer GoldCore. 2
Spot gold was last up 2.6% at $4,893.59 an ounce by 1243 GMT, recovering from Thursday’s slide as global equities stayed under pressure and investors looked for cover. “I do see a bit of a safe-haven investment coming in,” Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA, said, flagging a near-term range between $5,169 resistance and $4,400 support — price markers many traders use for selling and buying. Iran and the United States opened nuclear talks in Oman, while U.S. January payrolls were delayed to Feb. 11 after a partial government shutdown. 3
On Thursday, spot gold fell 1.8% to $4,872.83 at 1:31 p.m. ET after dipping to $4,791.69, and silver dropped 12.1% to $77.36 as risk assets sold off. “Some people are facing margin issues,” said RJO Futures strategist Bob Haberkorn, describing investors cutting metal positions to meet losses elsewhere. City Index analyst Fawad Razaqzada warned the market needed time to digest the shock, with volatility still high. 4
Volatility has also hit the physical market. Dealers in India charged premiums of up to $70 an ounce this week over domestic prices, down from last week’s $153, as buyers stood back; domestic prices were around 150,000 rupees per 10 grams on Friday, after swinging sharply. In China, premiums edged up to $35, and “consumers still have interest in buying jewellery on the downside,” said Peter Fung at Wing Fung Precious Metals, while ANZ’s Soni Kumari said the pullback came “at the right time” before the Lunar New Year. 5
That churn is forcing a rethink about what a “safe haven” looks like in 2026. Reuters columnist Jamie McGeever noted gold plunged 10% last Friday and then logged its biggest rise since 2008 a few days later, sending one-week realised volatility — a gauge of price swings — above 90%. “One’s ability to hedge is shot to pieces,” said Pepperstone’s Chris Weston, referring to the rising cost of protection. The piece also flagged that gold has overtaken the euro as the No.2 asset in central bank reserves, behind the dollar, even as Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair jarred the market. 6
Those forecasts are averages, not targets, and they hide the path. A market that can move hundreds of dollars in a day can still end the year near analysts’ assumptions, but the ride matters for anyone using leverage or running tight risk limits.
Traders still watch the basics: the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields and what the Federal Reserve signals on rates. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest. Geopolitics can add a bid, but the bid comes and goes.
Central bank buying has been the spine of the bullish story, while short-term flows can flip fast. When equities slide hard, gold can rally as a hedge. When losses trigger margin calls, gold can get sold along with everything else.
But the downside case is on the table. A firmer dollar, higher real yields or a more hawkish Fed could drain momentum, and tighter margin rules can force weaker hands out at the wrong moment. Physical demand in price-sensitive markets may also stay patchy if the swings don’t calm.
Before the U.S. cash session, desks are watching whether today’s bounce holds once New York liquidity thickens. CME’s new margin levels take effect after the close, a reminder that position sizes can shrink even without a fresh headline.
Next week’s rescheduled U.S. January payrolls report on Feb. 11 is the next fixed point, after this week’s delay. With rate expectations still twitchy, a surprise there could do more for the 2026 gold price outlook than any chart line.
