London, March 1, 2026, 17:07 GMT — Market closed
- Spot gold finished Friday with a 1.7% gain at $5,277 an ounce, landing just shy of January’s record high.
- Monday’s open kicks off with haven demand, after weekend headlines on Iran and a spike in oil prices.
- The next data points: U.S. payrolls land March 6, with inflation numbers to follow on March 11.
Gold finished Friday at a one-month high, drawing buyers seeking safety following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. Canceled flights are expected to sharply curtail physical bullion shipments via Dubai. Spot gold climbed 1.7% to close at $5,277 per ounce, still under the Jan. 29 peak of $5,594.82.
Why now? Energy risk isn’t staying in its lane. Brent crude pushed up roughly 10% to about $80 a barrel during OTC weekend deals, as jitters mounted over possible disruption at the Strait of Hormuz. “Closing of the Strait of Hormuz” is the deciding factor here, according to ICIS’s Ajay Parmar. Reuters
With the main exchanges closed, traders zeroed in on tokenised gold—digital tokens backed by physical bullion—for signals. “Flight to safety” buying, according to Hugo Pascal at InProved, sent PAX Gold to around $5,344 an ounce, while Tether Gold hovered near $5,292. Both came in above spot’s Friday close. Marex’s Edward Meir expected a “knee jerk spike” at the next open. Tim Waterer at KCM Trade added that gold could reassert itself as the “safe haven asset of choice.” Reuters
Some strategists are bracing for a sharp initial swing. Christopher Wong at OCBC pointed out that safe-haven plays like gold might jump with an “upside gap” as trading resumes—even if risk appetite finds its footing later on. Reuters
Gold’s rally isn’t slowing down — the metal has surged 22% since the start of the year, according to Reuters calculations. Investors have also favored the Swiss franc, which is 3% stronger against the dollar in 2026, while U.S. Treasuries have seen demand climb as yields pulled back in recent weeks.
Things could unravel in a hurry. Oil shipping lanes might clear up sooner than expected, and if the dollar gains traction, gold’s initial pop might just set up a round of profit-taking. Some investors aren’t biting on the first pullback, holding off until there’s more clarity on how wide the conflict could get.
Gold futures on CME’s electronic platform usually start up again Sunday evening U.S. time, then trade almost nonstop until Friday, pausing briefly each day for maintenance.
Traders turn their attention back to the macro front after the weekend. The U.S. February jobs report is set for release on Friday, March 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET, while the February CPI hits next Wednesday, March 11, also at 8:30 a.m. ET. Both numbers typically steer bullion, as shifting rates expectations move the needle.
The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting lands on March 17-18 and will feature fresh economic projections — a detail traders watch closely, since extended periods of elevated rates typically put pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold.
When markets reopen, gold’s haven bid faces a quick test—does it hold past the first headlines, or fade? Oil and the dollar could either magnify that early move or tamp it down, all with payrolls looming on March 6.
