New York, January 16, 2026, 06:17 EST — Premarket
- Spot gold slips once more but remains on track for a weekly rise following midweek highs
- U.S. jobless claims came in stronger than expected, boosting the dollar and dampening short-term hopes for rate cuts
- With thin U.S. holiday trading next week, all eyes remain on Fed signals and developments from Iran
Gold prices dipped again on Friday, following a slide from the day before as robust U.S. economic data boosted the dollar and cooled appetite for safe-haven assets. Spot gold dropped 0.3% to $4,603.02 an ounce by 0918 GMT. Meanwhile, February U.S. gold futures slipped 0.4% to $4,606.70. “There was a lot of momentum in the (gold) market, which seems to have faded slightly,” said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke. Business Standard
The pullback follows a rapid surge that saw gold hit a record $4,642.72 this week, keeping it on pace for about a 2% gain over the week. Traders have leaned on gold as a hedge amid policy and geopolitical tensions, but a stronger dollar and rising rates can quickly dampen that appeal. Safe-haven demand means buying assets like gold when investors grow uneasy about growth or market stability.
The U.S. labor market showed surprising strength late Thursday. Initial jobless claims fell to 198,000 for the week ending Jan. 10, a drop of 9,000 from the previous week. Economists had predicted 215,000, according to the AP.
Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, said the data “keeps expectations towards Fed on hold perhaps for the first half of the year.” He noted a multi-week high in the dollar index is “providing a bit of a headwind for gold.” The stronger dollar matters because it makes dollar-priced bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Kitco
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly struck a cautious note, saying policy is “in a good place” but emphasizing the Fed must be “deliberate” as it adjusts rates to meet its inflation and employment targets. Markets are wrestling with how fast the Fed can pivot after a string of mixed signals on growth and inflation. Reuters
The Fed’s calendar lists its next policy meeting for Jan. 27-28, making that late-January session the key date to watch for rate moves and, consequently, gold prices.
U.S. equity markets were closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, a holiday known to thin liquidity and amplify volatility when major news breaks. According to NYSE Group’s holiday calendar, the exchange will also be closed on Jan. 19, 2026, for MLK Day.
Bond markets will shut down as well. SIFMA has again called for a full market close on Jan. 19 for trading U.S. dollar-denominated fixed income securities across the U.S., U.K., and Japan. Treasury yields matter for gold pricing, since higher yields boost the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold.
Comex metals futures won’t shut down entirely during the holiday stretch, though trading will follow holiday hours. CME Group’s 2026 Globex calendar highlights a holiday schedule near MLK Day (Jan. 18-20) and notes that final holiday hours usually get set closer to the date.
Flows and positioning remain active. The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed ETF globally, saw its holdings tick up 0.05% to 1,074.80 tons on Thursday. Meanwhile, Vanda Research flagged silver as “the most crowded commodities trade,” citing heavy retail buying following this week’s sharp rally. Business Recorder
Physical markets tell a different story. In India, dealers offered discounts as steep as $12 an ounce off official domestic prices this week. Chirag Thakkar, CEO of bullion importer Amrapali Group Gujarat, noted demand “just isn’t there right now since prices keep hitting new highs.” Over in China, premiums remained modest ahead of the Lunar New Year. Independent analyst Ross Norman called it “surprising” that demand is holding steady, given Asian buyers typically react strongly to price moves. Reuters
The situation can turn quickly. Should the dollar keep pushing up and U.S. yields climb on stronger data, gold’s record rally might slip into a sharper correction. On the other hand, a fresh spike in Iran-related tensions or a change in Fed signals would probably lure traders back to bullion.
Attention now turns to the Jan. 27-28 Fed meeting, with a focus on any signals about how long rates will remain restrictive and whether officials believe there’s enough cooling to warrant cuts this year. The Fed’s calendar confirms the meeting and Chair Powell’s press conference are set for Jan. 28.
