New York, January 15, 2026, 10:06 EST — Regular session
- After bullion pulled back from a new record, gold-linked ETFs and miners retreated.
- A stronger dollar, boosted by U.S. jobless claims data and quieter Iran news, dented the safe-haven appeal.
- All eyes are on the Fed meeting scheduled for Jan. 27-28 as traders await fresh policy clues.
Gold-linked ETFs and miners slipped Thursday as bullion eased off record peaks. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) dropped 0.5%, VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) lost 0.3%, and Newmont (NEM) edged down 0.1% in early New York hours. Spot gold slid 0.3% to $4,607.59 an ounce by 9:32 a.m. ET, after hitting $4,642.72 the day before. Meanwhile, U.S. February futures fell 0.5% to $4,612.50. The retreat came as the dollar climbed, pushing the dollar index to its highest level since Dec. 2, driven by jobless claims beating forecasts and President Donald Trump’s softer stance on Iran. Trump also said he has no plans to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. “The dollar index is at a multi-week high and that’s providing a bit of a headwind for gold,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. 1
The pullback is significant because gold’s rally reflects shifting views on both the Fed’s moves and the political landscape. For a lot of investors, GLD offers the fastest way to bet for or against that trend without dealing with physical bars or coins.
Gold’s recent rally was driven by weaker inflation numbers and renewed optimism that U.S. interest rates could come down later this year. Core consumer prices climbed 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year in December, both below expectations. Following the data, Trump pushed again for significant rate cuts. “The benign CPI data … portends a higher likelihood of Fed rate cuts,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. 2
Behind the scenes, major brokerages are openly forecasting $5,000 gold by 2026, citing geopolitical risks, anticipated policy easing, ETF inflows, and central bank purchases. Gold has already jumped over 6% in the first 13 days of this year, following a 64% surge in 2025, according to Reuters. “Real assets come to the fore … The rules are out the window,” said independent precious metals analyst Ross Norman. 3
Thursday’s U.S. labor data pushed markets in the opposite direction. Initial jobless claims dropped to 198,000 for the week ending Jan. 10, well below the 215,000 forecast. Still, Reuters flagged that the decline probably stems from seasonal adjustment quirks around year-end. The Fed’s Beige Book noted “employment was mostly unchanged” in early January, with several districts leaning more on temporary workers to keep things flexible. 4
The dollar index measures the U.S. currency against a group of key rivals. A rising dollar usually puts pressure on gold, as the metal turns pricier for holders of other currencies, trimming demand slightly.
Rate talk plays a key role. Since gold doesn’t pay interest—traders label it “non-yielding”—rising rates often weigh on demand, whereas falling rates generally boost its appeal.
Miners feel bullion price shifts more sharply. Their income depends on gold prices, yet costs don’t always drop in tandem. Fluctuations in energy costs and local currencies can rapidly squeeze their margins.
The next questions are straightforward but tricky: was this merely profit-taking after hitting a record, or could it mark the beginning of a wider reset if the dollar remains strong and the geopolitical premium continues to fade?
Bulls face the risk that softer headlines—and a string of data pushing the Fed to stay put longer than the market expects—could drag out the correction. Should selling get messy, miners and the gold-miner ETF may fall harder and faster than bullion, since they’re exposed to company and equity-market risks as well.
Investors are turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s Jan. 27-28 meeting for clues on when rate cuts might come. Gold traders, meanwhile, are closely watching for new developments out of Washington regarding Iran and the Powell investigation.
