Gold prices are taking a breather on Thursday, 18 December 2025, after a strong late-session push on Wednesday. Spot gold hovered around the mid-$4,300s per ounce in early European trading, as investors balanced dovish Federal Reserve signals against a firmer US dollar and the looming risk of fresh inflation surprises. [1]
The pause comes at a pivotal moment. A delayed US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for November is due later today, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday—a one-two punch that could reset expectations for 2026 rate cuts and, by extension, the near-term trajectory for XAU/USD (gold vs the US dollar). [2]
Gold price today: where spot and futures are trading
In the latest widely cited early-session pricing:
- Spot gold eased 0.2% to $4,333.12 per ounce as of 06:52 GMT.
- US gold futures (COMEX) slipped 0.2% to $4,363.60. [3]
Other real-time trackers showed gold moving inside a relatively tight band for the session. XAU/USD traded roughly between $4,320.96 and $4,343.21 on the day, reflecting consolidation rather than a trend break. [4]
Zooming out, the bigger story is how elevated prices remain. Gold has posted a historic run in 2025, and it previously hit a record near $4,381/oz in October, a level that continues to loom over the market as the next psychological “prove it” point for bulls. [5]
Why gold is steady today: dovish Fed talk meets a resilient dollar
Gold’s underlying support has been the same theme that powered much of 2025: falling (or expected-to-fall) interest rates.
Reuters reports that Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled the central bank still has room to cut rates, pointing to a cooling labor market. That matters because gold is a non-yielding asset—when cash and bonds offer less return, holding gold becomes relatively more attractive. [6]
But the counterweight today is the currency channel. The US dollar held onto earlier gains after touching a near one-week high, limiting the upside in dollar-priced bullion because it becomes more expensive for non-US buyers. [7]
This push-pull—rate-cut optimism vs USD strength—helps explain why gold is not surging despite supportive macro headlines. Markets are effectively waiting for confirmation.
The main catalyst on 18 December: US CPI (and why this one is unusual)
The market’s next major input is today’s US CPI print for November, followed by Friday’s PCE inflation report. [8]
This CPI release is especially closely watched for two reasons:
- It’s the first “fresh” inflation checkpoint after data disruption.
A 43-day US government shutdown forced the Labor Department to cancel October’s CPI report, and November’s release is expected to arrive with limitations—most notably, a heavier focus on year-over-year changes rather than the usual full monthly detail. [9] - Policy expectations are sensitive right now.
Economists surveyed in Reuters coverage expected headline CPI around 3.1% year-over-year and core CPI around 3.0% year-over-year, with tariff-related cost pressures among the factors being debated. [10]
The timing matters too: the BLS release schedule confirms the November 2025 CPI is set for 18 December 2025, aligning with today’s heightened market focus. [11]
What CPI could mean for gold today
- If inflation prints softer than feared: bond yields and the dollar may ease, potentially giving gold room to retest resistance near recent highs. [12]
- If inflation runs hot or sticky: yields and the dollar can firm, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold and increasing the risk of a deeper pullback—especially after such an outsized year-to-date rally. [13]
Precious metals are moving as a complex: silver steals the spotlight
Gold isn’t trading in isolation. A major feature of this week’s tape is silver’s surge, which has helped keep the entire precious-metals complex bid.
- Silver hit a record $66.88/oz on Wednesday and remained near those highs Thursday. [14]
- Reuters noted silver is up roughly 130% year-to-date, far outpacing gold’s ~65% 2025 gain. [15]
Meanwhile, platinum and palladium have also been strong, with platinum reaching a more than 17-year high in the latest Reuters snapshot. [16]
For gold traders, this matters because when capital rotates into metals broadly—driven by inflation hedging, industrial demand narratives, or “hard asset” flows—it can reduce the downside follow-through on gold dips even when the dollar firms.
Geopolitics and central banks: the two “slow-burn” forces under gold
Daily price swings often come down to the dollar and interest rates. But gold’s multi-year repricing has been driven by two deeper forces: geopolitics and central-bank demand.
Geopolitical risk is feeding safe-haven demand
Reuters’ global markets wrap noted commodities were being roiled by geopolitical tension, including oil-market disruptions tied to US actions around Venezuela—an environment that can reinforce demand for traditional safe havens like gold. [17]
Central banks are anchoring the market’s floor
In a major Reuters deep-dive on gold’s outlook, analysts argued that official-sector buying has helped “rebase” gold to higher levels rather than follow the classic boom-and-bust pattern after a big annual rally.
Key takeaways from that Reuters analysis include:
- Gold is up about 64% in 2025, after a surge that saw it reach a record $4,381/oz in October. [18]
- Analysts at major institutions including JP Morgan and Bank of America see a pathway to $5,000/oz in 2026, though with a slower pace of gains. [19]
- JP Morgan analysts estimate gold needs roughly 350 tonnes per quarter of combined central bank and investment demand to keep prices flat, and they forecast average demand of ~585 tonnes per quarter in 2026. [20]
ING’s research commentary adds more color on the demand side, highlighting record strength in 2025’s third quarter—driven by investment flows and central bank buying even as jewelry volumes cooled under record prices. [21]
“Gold is moving markets” news today: Thailand and Zimbabwe react to the rally
Gold’s impact isn’t just on trading desks—it’s increasingly visible in policy decisions.
Thailand: central bank calls for controls on gold trading
Thailand’s central bank urged the finance ministry to regulate gold trading, arguing that surging gold transactions have been a major driver of currency inflows and baht appreciation. The governor said gold-related flows can account for about half of the push behind sharp baht strength on some days—an extraordinary signal of how large gold has become in local financial plumbing. [22]
Zimbabwe: government backs off a gold royalty hike
In Zimbabwe, lawmakers revised budget plans to scrap a proposed doubling of the gold royalty rate and instead set a much higher threshold for any windfall tax changes—another example of governments adjusting policy frameworks to reflect today’s elevated gold price regime. [23]
Gold technical outlook for today: levels traders are watching
While the macro narrative is CPI-led, markets are also trading clear technical signposts.
A widely circulated short-term technical view from FXEmpire suggests:
- Support zone: around $4,305
- Near-term resistance: $4,350–$4,390
- Downside risk area: near $4,260 if momentum breaks lower [24]
FXStreet’s daily view similarly describes gold as pulling back under $4,350 on profit-taking and a stronger dollar, while noting that rate-cut expectations could help cap the downside—again putting the CPI print at the center of the next directional move. [25]
Practical read-through: if gold holds above the low-$4,300s while CPI risk passes, bulls can argue the market is simply consolidating near highs. A decisive break below key support levels, however, would make “year-end de-risking” and profit-taking a bigger headline into the close of 2025.
2026 gold forecasts: from consolidation to $5,000 scenarios
As 2025 winds down, the debate is shifting from “how did gold get here?” to “what does a sustainable next leg look like?”
Reuters: banks see $5,000 possible, but expect a slower climb
Reuters reports a split between bullish targets and more moderate base cases:
- JP Morgan: expects average prices above $4,600 in Q2 2026 and more than $5,000 in Q4 2026 (per the Reuters report).
- Morgan Stanley: cited at $4,500/oz by mid-2026.
- Metals Focus: forecasts $5,000 by end-2026.
- Macquarie: sees average prices around $4,225 in 2026, implying gains may be less dramatic. [26]
State Street’s gold team: “Definitely Maybe” on $5,000—with clear base/bull/bear bands
State Street Investment Management (SSGA) published a structured outlook that frames next year in probability-weighted ranges:
- Base case: $4,000–$4,500
- Bull case: $4,500–$5,000
- Bear case: $3,500–$4,000 [27]
Their thesis emphasizes a combination of Fed easing, strong physical demand (especially from central banks and Asia), ETF restocking, and debt/fiscal concerns as the pillars supporting a “higher-for-longer” gold regime. [28]
World Gold Council: scenarios, not point targets
The World Gold Council’s late-2025 outlook work also stresses that 2026 outcomes are likely to be scenario-driven—shaped by opportunity cost (real rates), risk appetite, and tail-risk events—rather than a straight-line continuation of 2025’s surge. [29]
Bottom line: gold is steady today, but the next move could be sharp
Gold price today (18 December 2025) is best described as high-level consolidation: spot is holding near $4,330/oz, close to record territory, as traders brace for a CPI-driven reset of rate expectations and dollar direction. [30]
What happens next is likely to hinge on whether today’s inflation signal confirms the market’s belief that the Fed can keep easing into 2026—or forces a rethink. Either way, with gold already up roughly two-thirds this year and banks openly debating $5,000/oz scenarios for 2026, volatility around major data prints is becoming a feature, not a bug. [31]
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.bls.gov, 12. www.fxempire.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. think.ing.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.fxempire.com, 25. www.fxstreet.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.ssga.com, 28. www.ssga.com, 29. www.gold.org, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com
