NEW YORK — 26.12.2025 (10:14 a.m. EST): Gold prices remained pinned near fresh all-time highs Friday morning, as investors continued to price in a lower-rate path for the U.S. and leaned into gold’s safe-haven appeal during thin year-end trading.
At 10:14 a.m. EST, spot gold was $4,526.84 per ounce, up about 1.05% on the day. [1]
That level keeps bullion within touching distance of the latest record peak around $4,530.60 reported earlier in the session, as the precious-metals rally broadens to include silver and platinum amid tightening liquidity and renewed momentum buying. [2]
Gold price today at 10:14 a.m. EST: where things stand
Gold’s morning trade is best understood as a market holding a powerful trend line rather than sprinting in a straight line:
- Spot gold (XAU/USD):$4,526.84/oz at 10:14 a.m. EST [3]
- Intraday range (XAU/USD): roughly $4,479 to $4,533 [4]
- Recent record high:~$4,530.60/oz [5]
Prices across major screens can differ by several dollars depending on timestamp, bid/ask spreads, and whether you’re looking at spot versus futures. On Reuters’ snapshot earlier Friday, spot gold was around $4,505 late morning GMT time, while U.S. gold futures were quoted higher. [6]
What’s driving gold right now
Friday’s move is not happening in isolation—it’s the latest chapter of a 2025 surge that has increasingly been framed as both a macro trade and a structural allocation shift.
1) Rate-cut expectations and the “opportunity cost” story
Gold tends to benefit when investors expect lower interest rates (and potentially lower real yields), because holding a non-yielding asset becomes less costly. Reuters reporting on Friday noted that markets are pricing in at least two Fed cuts in 2026, keeping support under gold and silver. [7]
2) Dollar softness and policy uncertainty
A weaker U.S. dollar can mechanically lift dollar-priced commodities like gold, and traders are also watching policy signals heading into 2026—especially around the Fed leadership outlook, which Reuters said could sway markets in the coming week. [8]
3) Safe-haven demand and geopolitics
Gold’s early-session record was tied to safe-haven demand alongside rate-cut bets, according to Reuters. [9]
4) Central bank buying and ETF flows
Reuters and other market coverage have repeatedly pointed to central bank purchases and ETF inflows as key pillars under the rally. In Reuters’ global markets wrap, MUFG’s commodities analyst cited central-bank demand, ETF inflows, and concerns about debt/currency debasement as core supports. [10]
5) Thin holiday liquidity amplifying volatility
The market backdrop matters: with many global markets closed or lightly staffed for the holidays, price moves can look exaggerated. Reuters explicitly flagged low liquidity as a volatility amplifier across precious metals. [11]
AP similarly described Friday as light trading at the end of a holiday-shortened week, even as gold and silver notched records. [12]
Physical gold demand check: India cools, China discounts narrow
Even as financial demand pushes prices to records, the physical market is showing mixed signals—especially in Asia’s two biggest gold-consuming regions.
Reuters reported that the record rally has cooled retail buying in India, with local dealers offering discounts as wide as $61/oz—the biggest in more than six months—as consumers balk at elevated prices. [13]
In China, however, Reuters said discounts narrowed sharply (to roughly $15–$30/oz) versus the prior week, helped by speculative interest, constrained supply tied to import quotas, and currency effects. [14]
This divergence matters because it highlights a key tension for 2026: how much of the gold price is being driven by investment flows vs. end-user jewelry demand.
Why silver’s breakout is feeding the gold narrative
Gold’s rally is happening alongside an even more dramatic move in silver, which Reuters noted topped $75/oz for the first time—a milestone that has pulled more attention into the precious-metals complex. [15]
That broader “metals bid” can reinforce gold in two ways:
- it supports the macro thesis (rates, USD, hedging), and
- it fuels momentum behavior—investors rotate within the complex when one metal is perceived as “cheaper” or more leveraged to the trend.
Gold price forecast: where analysts see gold heading next
With spot gold already north of $4,500, 2026 forecasts have widened—but several major institutions still see upside or elevated consolidation levels, while a minority argues for a correction.
Bullish-to-supportive calls (big banks and strategists)
- Goldman Sachs: sees gold climbing to $4,900/oz by December 2026 in its base case, citing structurally high central bank demand and cyclical support from Fed cuts. [16]
- Morgan Stanley: forecasts $4,800/oz by Q4 2026, expecting smaller gains than 2025 but continued support from rate cuts, the dollar, and demand factors. [17]
- HSBC: has said gold could reach $5,000/oz in the first half of 2026 and lifted its 2026 average forecast to $4,600/oz, while warning of volatility and possible moderation later in 2026. [18]
- Deutsche Bank: raised its 2026 forecast to $4,450/oz, with a $3,950–$4,950 range and a view that ETF flows could help keep a floor under prices. [19]
More cautious / bearish view
- Capital Economics: has argued the rally may fade, with a forecast calling for gold to fall to $3,500/oz by end‑2026, a view also echoed in broader media coverage of the metals boom. [20]
Scenario-based outlook from the gold industry
The World Gold Council has emphasized that its 2026 work is scenario analysis rather than point forecasts, illustrating potential outcomes depending on macro paths (e.g., modest consensus outcomes, upside stress scenarios, or reflation-style downside). [21]
Institutional “base case” framing
State Street Global Advisors (SPDR/SSGA) has described a setup where gold may moderate but consolidate higher in 2026, citing structural supports (Fed easing, demand, ETF inflows, debt concerns) while leaving open a path to $5,000 under stronger tailwinds. [22]
What to watch next: catalysts that could move gold from here
With gold sitting just below (or at) record territory, the next meaningful move often depends on whether incoming headlines reinforce or undercut the “lower rates + weaker dollar + uncertainty” narrative.
Key items traders are watching include:
- Fed path and U.S. data surprises: anything that shifts expectations on how quickly the Fed can cut in 2026 (or how far). [23]
- Dollar direction: renewed USD weakness has historically been constructive for gold’s price floor. [24]
- Liquidity effects: late-December trading can exaggerate both breakouts and pullbacks. [25]
- Physical-market response: especially whether India demand revives after any dip, and whether China’s premiums/discounts stay firm. [26]
For now, the tape says gold remains in “buy-the-dip” mode—with spot prices holding above $4,500 and intraday pullbacks quickly attracting bids.
References
1. goldpricez.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. goldpricez.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. apnews.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.cbsnews.com, 21. www.gold.org, 22. www.ssga.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com
