Bengaluru, March 31, 2026, 22:36 IST
Gold jumped over 2% Tuesday, with spot prices hitting $4,608.16 per ounce and U.S. futures at $4,639.00. Still, that rebound couldn’t reverse what’s now set to be bullion’s sharpest monthly drop since October 2008. Silver surged 4.9% to $73.37. Platinum climbed 1.2% and palladium picked up 2.6%. Despite the day’s moves, all three metals are still on track to finish March lower.
This shift is significant: gold’s price action isn’t behaving like a straightforward war hedge anymore. Surging oil, pushed up by Middle East tensions, is stoking inflation worries and keeping eyes locked on the risk of persistently high U.S. rates. In an environment where gold offers no yield, its draw for investors dims.
Brent crude hovered close to $118 a barrel Tuesday, heading for what could be its largest monthly jump ever. The Federal Reserve left its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% back on March 18. Officials say they’re watching the data and risks before deciding on their next move. Chair Jerome Powell, speaking Monday, mentioned the central bank might “wait and see” how the war influences both inflation and growth. Reuters
John Williams, who heads the New York Fed, called policy “well positioned” to handle this “unusual set of circumstances,” and flagged the energy shock as something that’s probably going to push inflation higher over the next few months. That keeps the rate environment tough for gold—even as geopolitical worries heat up. Reuters
Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, called the recent climb a classic technical rebound after a bruising selloff. He added that bullion might make its way toward $5,000, should cooling oil prices and tamer inflation revive hopes for a U.S. rate cut this year.
Still, the rebound has a shaky feel to it. According to Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, an extended conflict could see prices slipping under $4,000. A ceasefire, plus a return of hopes for rate cuts, might send gold climbing toward $5,000.
Some banks are sticking to their upbeat outlooks for gold over the longer haul. In January, Goldman Sachs projected the metal would hit $5,400 by the close of 2026, pointing to ongoing reserve diversification by emerging-market central banks and private-sector buyers moving into bullion.
UBS ratcheted up its call, now targeting $6,200 for March, June, and September, and dialing back to $5,900 by the end of the year. There’s a caveat: should the Fed take a more hawkish turn, the bank sees a possible drop to $4,600. Policy risk, UBS notes, still overshadows the longer-term gold support coming from reserve demand.
Still, March left its mark. Gold is headed for its steepest monthly drop since 2008—despite notching gains on two consecutive days—as traders spent much of the month shedding positions. Oil prices jumped, and optimism around U.S. rate cuts dwindled.
