NEW YORK, March 2, 2026, 17:11 ET — After-hours trading
- Spot gold climbed after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, with investors moving to safety.
- The dollar surged, cutting short an early rally. Physical flows through Dubai now face potential disruption.
- Focus shifts to this week’s U.S. jobs numbers as traders look for clues on the next move for rates.
Gold climbed on Monday, lifted after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran spurred a flight to safety, though the initial rally fizzled as the session wore on. Spot gold inched up 0.4% to $5,297.31 an ounce by 1831 GMT. U.S. gold futures closed up 1.2% at $5,311.60.
This matters now—the market’s busy recalculating the odds of a protracted, disorderly Middle East crisis, with energy prices lurching and risk assets shuddering. When that happens, gold usually draws buyers, regardless of what else is working against it.
Eyes are fixed on the U.S. data slate, with the ADP National Employment Report landing Wednesday, March 4, at 8:15 a.m. ET. These labor figures hit rate bets directly, often jolting the dollar—and gold tends to react in kind.
Monday brought choppy action. Gold surged over 2% at one point, only to pull back as profit-taking kicked in—a reminder that even those safe-haven corners are starting to look crowded.
“The market is attempting to figure out whether these attacks are going to be followed up,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. A 1% bump in the dollar index didn’t help—gold priced in dollars got more expensive for buyers outside the U.S.
Sources in the metals sector say airlines have started pulling flights to and from Dubai—a major bullion center—restricting flows for the next several days, Reuters reported. Spot gold finished Friday 1.7% higher at $5,277 per ounce, still below its record of $5,594.82.
Elsewhere in the metals space, prices didn’t hold up. Silver, platinum, and palladium slipped, highlighting that gold drew nearly all of this day’s attention while the rest of the complex lost ground.
Some analysts aren’t ruling out further gains if the conflict persists. “There will be extra haven demand for gold which could see prices rise to around $5,500 again,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and Forex.com. He also pointed out that a stronger dollar might cap bullion’s upside. Reuters
Still, the risks on the other end are hard to miss. Should tensions ease in a hurry, or should fresh U.S. numbers push the case for keeping rates higher for longer, gold could just as easily give up gains in a hurry after a headline-fueled jump—especially once traders start locking in profits.
Geopolitics aside, attention turns to Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, a key signal for where the labour market stands.
All eyes are on Friday, when the U.S. Employment Situation report for February lands at 8:30 a.m. ET. This is the data drop that reliably jolts the dollar and Treasury yields, sometimes triggering a quick rethink in gold prices.
