Gold prices cooled slightly Thursday but stayed close to record territory after a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation print shifted rate expectations again—supportive for non-yielding bullion—while simultaneously undermining gold’s role as an inflation hedge.
Spot gold was last trading around the $4,330–$4,335/oz area in late afternoon U.S. dealing, while U.S. gold futures hovered in the mid-$4,360s. [1]
Gold price today: spot gold, XAU/USD, and gold futures levels
Here’s where the market stood in the latest widely published updates on Dec. 18:
- Spot gold (New York): $4,332.10 bid / $4,334.10 ask at 3:55 PM EST, down about 0.12% on the day. [2]
- Day’s range (spot): roughly $4,308 to $4,375/oz. [3]
- XAU/USD (gold vs. USD): around 4,331.99, with a daily range around 4,309.23–4,374.37 (Investing.com). [4]
- Gold futures: around $4,364.60, with a daily range around $4,338.20–$4,409.45 (Investing.com). [5]
- Earlier Reuters snapshot: spot gold $4,330.39/oz as of 2:26 PM ET, with U.S. gold futures settling at $4,364.5. [6]
Gold remains very close to its recent peaks. Reuters noted bullion hit a record $4,381.21 on Oct. 20, 2025, and Thursday’s action kept prices “hovering near these levels” earlier in the session. [7]
What moved gold on Dec. 18: inflation data arrived—then the narrative split
1) Softer CPI strengthened rate-cut expectations…
U.S. inflation data released Thursday showed the Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-over-year in November, below the 3.1% forecast cited by Reuters. [8]
That’s normally a constructive setup for gold because:
- lower inflation can pull down yields,
- a softer price environment can support the case for future rate cuts,
- and gold tends to benefit when real rates fall.
Reuters reported futures markets “factored in a slightly increased chance” of a Fed cut as the CPI data landed. [9]
2) …but the same CPI surprise reduced gold’s “inflation insurance” appeal
In Thursday’s Reuters market report, City Index/FOREX.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada described the push-pull clearly: if inflation is falling faster than expected, “this kind of reduces the appeal” of gold as insurance against inflation. [10]
That helps explain why gold didn’t simply rip higher on the CPI headline—because part of gold’s powerful multi-year bid has been tied to inflation anxiety, not only to rate expectations.
3) There’s also a major asterisk: the CPI report itself was “patchy”
Reuters’ broader CPI write-up warned the November report was distorted by a federal government shutdown, which disrupted data collection and even prevented publication of normal month-to-month CPI rates. Some economists cautioned against over-interpreting the report. [11]
For gold traders, that uncertainty matters. When the “signal” is noisy, markets often fall back on trend, positioning, and liquidity—rather than making a one-way bet off a single data print.
The dollar and rates backdrop: a classic tailwind started to form
Following the inflation release, Reuters reported the U.S. dollar weakened against the yen and Swiss franc, while Treasury yields fell and U.S. stocks traded higher—moves consistent with markets leaning toward easier financial conditions. [12]
That combination (softer dollar + lower yields) is typically constructive for gold priced in dollars, because it can:
- make gold cheaper for non-U.S. buyers,
- lower the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset,
- and boost portfolio diversification demand.
Yet Thursday’s price action shows gold is not trading on one input anymore—it’s balancing multiple “reasons to own” (rates, geopolitics, central-bank demand) with multiple “reasons to pause” (less inflation fear, profit-taking at highs).
Gold is still in a powerful uptrend—and analysts are talking $5,000
Even on a down day, several market strategists kept the upside narrative alive.
In Reuters’ gold report, Peter Grant of Zaner Metals said the broader trend remains positive and pointed to upside objectives including $4,515.63 and $5,000. [13]
That bullish framing matters for Google Discover audiences because it captures the key reality of late-2025 gold trading: pullbacks have been shallow, and dips have often attracted buyers quickly.
Forecasts published today: Goldman’s $4,900 target and Australia’s “around $4,000” base view
Goldman Sachs: $4,900 by December 2026
In a Reuters report dated Dec. 18, 2025, Goldman Sachs projected gold could rise 14% to $4,900/oz by December 2026in its base case. The bank cited:
- structurally high central bank demand, and
- cyclical support from expected Fed rate cuts
as key drivers, while also highlighting upside risks if private investors broaden diversification into gold. [14]
Australia’s government outlook: gold strong near $4,000 in 2026, then easing
A separate Reuters report tied to Australia’s latest resources outlook said officials expect gold prices to remain strong at around $4,000/oz over 2026, before falling in 2027. [15]
That forecast landed alongside a major macro headline: Australia revised expected resources export earnings up, with gold projected to become the second most valuable resource export after iron ore in the 2025–26 financial year. [16]
In other words: the gold rally is no longer just a trading story—it’s reshaping national trade projections.
Physical market and flow signals: Switzerland data shows demand shifting, not disappearing
One of the most revealing data points Thursday came from Switzerland—the world’s biggest gold refining and transit hub.
Reuters reported Swiss gold exports fell 15% month-on-month in November as shipments to India plunged to 2 metric tons from 26 tons in October—demand hit by the price rally. Meanwhile:
- exports to China rose to 12 tons from 2 tons, and
- shipments to Britain jumped to 45 tons from 9 tons—a sign of bullion moving back toward the London OTC hub. [17]
That mix suggests high prices are changing where gold goes (and how it moves through the system), rather than ending demand outright.
Asia watch: Thailand flags gold trading as a currency driver
In another Dec. 18 Reuters development, Thailand’s central bank urged the finance ministry to regulate gold trading, arguing that gold-related transactions have become a significant driver of baht moves—on some days accounting for about half of the flows pushing the currency stronger. [18]
For gold investors, the takeaway is bigger than Thailand: in a world of elevated bullion prices, gold market plumbing—FX conversion, hedging, settlement flows—can increasingly show up in currency volatility and policy debates.
Technical outlook for gold: key levels traders are watching into the evening session
With gold near historic highs, technical levels matter because they often dictate liquidity pockets where orders cluster.
Commonly watched resistance and support (Dec. 18)
- DailyForex’s Dec. 18 technical view cited resistance around $4,370–$4,390 (with a higher marker around $4,460) and support around $4,300–$4,260 (then $4,170). [19]
- IC Markets’ daily technical outlook listed an XAU/USD pivot near 4,255.04, first support near 4,145.75, and first resistance near 4,366.45. [20]
What the indicator dashboards suggest
Investing.com’s technical snapshot showed mixed very short-term signals (neutral on some intraday timeframes) but a Strong Buy bias on daily/weekly/monthly views at the time of its Dec. 18 update. [21]
That aligns with what price action has been showing for months: even when gold stalls, the market has struggled to produce sustained downside follow-through.
The bigger picture: why gold is still the story of 2025
Two numbers capture why gold keeps dominating market headlines:
- Reuters noted spot gold is up about 65% year-to-date, an extraordinary move for a deep, global market. [22]
- Switzerland’s export report added context: this is on track to be gold’s biggest annual gain in 46 years. [23]
The rally is being driven by a rare overlap:
- rate-cut cycles (or expectations of them),
- heightened geopolitical and policy uncertainty,
- strong central-bank demand,
- and persistent investor interest in hard-asset diversification.
What to watch next (next 24–48 hours)
If you’re updating this story again for a late-evening publication window, these are the catalysts most likely to move gold in the next leg:
- Follow-through in the dollar and Treasury yields after CPI (gold’s most reliable short-term macro inputs). [24]
- How markets treat the CPI reliability issue (shutdown-driven gaps could keep volatility elevated). [25]
- Positioning around record levels: price reactions near the $4,374–$4,381 zone can decide whether gold breaks out or consolidates. [26]
- Institutional forecasts and demand narratives (Goldman’s $4,900 call and government export projections are likely to keep “higher for longer” debate active). [27]
- Physical-flow data and policy headlines from major hubs (Switzerland, India, China, and policy actions tied to gold-linked flows). [28]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices can change rapidly, especially outside U.S. cash-market hours.
References
1. www.kitco.com, 2. www.kitco.com, 3. www.kitco.com, 4. uk.investing.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.dailyforex.com, 20. www.icmarkets.com, 21. uk.investing.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.kitco.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com
