NEW YORK, March 16, 2026, 13:57 EDT
Spot gold slipped 0.5% to $4,994.89 an ounce as of 11:26 a.m. ET Monday, not far from its lowest point since Feb. 19. U.S. gold futures for April lost 0.6% to $5,031.50. “With higher oil prices comes higher inflation,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Silver barely budged, while platinum and palladium moved higher. Reuters
The timing stings: the decline lands right before the Federal Reserve meets in March, with traders slashing bets on rate cuts. Right now, the market is putting the odds of a hold this week at almost 100%, and is only penciling in around 25 basis points of easing for all of this year. That’s not great for gold, since the metal offers no yield.
Oil prices slipped from Monday’s peak, though not far enough to ease inflation worries. Brent hovered near $102.42 a barrel, with U.S. crude at $95.79—both sitting more than 40% higher than their Feb. 28 levels. The Strait of Hormuz, still critical, carries about a fifth of global oil and LNG traffic.
Signals from the Fed have gotten murkier. Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, flagged a twist: just two weeks back, the idea of a Fed rate hike in 2026 seemed “almost unthinkable”—but it’s suddenly being considered. And AAA’s latest figure for the U.S. national average on regular gas: $3.718 a gallon as of March 16, up from $2.929 just a month before. Reuters
This trade isn’t set in stone. The Bank for International Settlements warned central banks against reacting too quickly to a short-lived energy shock. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, for his part, said Washington was “fine” with a few ships passing through Hormuz at the moment. The International Energy Agency added that it could release more emergency barrels if needed, following last week’s record stock draw. Reuters
There’s also a tougher risk in play. Two-year Treasury yields have climbed 31 basis points since the start of the month. Rate futures now price in just 24 basis points of Fed cuts this year—well below the 55 basis points seen before the war began. Brad Conger, Hirtle Callaghan’s chief investment officer, put it bluntly: markets are close to a “tipping point,” with rising energy-driven inflation starting to eat into demand. Reuters
This week’s action stretches far past just gold. The Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan—four giants—are all set to meet, something that’s only happened once before since 2021. Traders are keeping an eye out for any hint that the recent oil shock could force central bankers to shelve easing plans and consider a firmer stance instead.
Even with gold sliding, futures traders kept moving. By 10 a.m. Monday, estimated COMEX gold volume had hit 116,990 contracts, according to AP market data—a drop from Friday’s level. Open interest, meanwhile, climbed by 918. It’s Washington, not the action in the gold pit, that’s set to give the next clear read.
