NEW YORK, Jan 4, 2026, 12:16 ET — Market closed
- Spot gold was last up 0.36% at $4,329.57/oz late Friday; U.S. gold futures settled at $4,329.60.
- SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) closed at $398.28 (+0.5%); Newmont ended at $101.22 (+1.37%).
- The next catalysts are the U.S. December jobs report (Jan. 9) and CPI (Jan. 13).
Gold prices held near $4,330 an ounce after a muted start to 2026, with spot bullion last up 0.36% at $4,329.57 late on Friday.
That leaves investors with a familiar question as markets reopen: does the rally extend, or does a firmer rates backdrop bite. Gold pays no interest, so it tends to do better when yields fall and investors worry about growth or geopolitics.
Next week matters because the stream of U.S. economic data is set to pick up again after a 43-day federal government shutdown disrupted releases. Investors also weighed weekend events in Venezuela that strategists said could trigger flight-to-safety flows when trading resumes.
In Friday’s session, a firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields capped bullion’s upside. The dollar index rose 0.19% to 98.43, while the benchmark 10-year yield ended around 4.191%, up about four basis points (0.04 percentage point).
U.S. gold futures for February settled 0.3% lower at $4,329.60, after bullion hit a record $4,549.71 on Dec. 26. Gold surged 64% in 2025, its biggest annual rise since 1979.
Gold-linked products moved with the underlying but lagged intraday swings. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) closed Friday at $398.28, up 0.5%, according to LSEG data carried by the Financial Times.
Among miners, Newmont ended up 1.37% at $101.22. Shares in gold producers can magnify moves in bullion because revenues track the metal while operating costs may not move in lockstep.
Rate expectations remain the key macro driver. Fed funds futures — contracts that price where the policy rate is headed — imply little chance of a cut at the Fed’s late-January meeting but nearly a 50% chance of a quarter-point reduction in March, a Reuters report showed.
“We are continuing to see the market talk about cuts in March,” Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said. Reuters
Some policymakers are pushing back on the idea of quick easing. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said another rate cut could “be some way off” as officials take stock, while still expecting inflation to moderate and growth around 2% this year. Reuters
On the demand side, physical markets in Asia showed a tentative rebound after the late-December spike. India and China flipped to paying premiums to global prices as local buyers returned on a pullback, Reuters reported.
Technicians are watching whether bullion can reclaim late-December highs. Kitco Metals analyst Jim Wyckoff said a close above $4,584 would put bulls back in control, while $4,300 is a key near-term support level.
But the next round of U.S. data could quickly reset positioning. A stronger payrolls report or sticky inflation would likely lift yields and the dollar — headwinds for gold — while a weaker set of numbers would reinforce rate-cut bets and the safe-haven bid.
The next test comes Friday: the U.S. employment report for December is due Jan. 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists expecting 55,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.6%, according to a Reuters poll. The consumer price index follows on Jan. 13.
