London, April 17, 2026, 09:37 BST.
Gold hovered close to $4,784 an ounce early Friday, eyeing a fourth week of gains. Spot prices dipped 0.1% as of 0815 GMT; U.S. gold futures slipped by the same margin. Still, bullion was up roughly 0.9% for the week.
Gold’s moves aren’t just about the war anymore. The metal is also reacting to shifts in the dollar, oil prices, and bets on where U.S. rates might go next. With the dollar on track for a second straight weekly dip and Brent crude holding under $100, traders are less anxious about runaway energy prices fueling inflation or keeping rates high—conditions that usually sap demand for yield-less gold.
Diplomatic moves are front and center. Lebanon and Israel started a 10-day ceasefire on Thursday, as U.S. President Donald Trump floated the chance of a U.S.-Iran meeting by the weekend. Tim Waterer at KCM Trade pointed out that investors want to see “concrete progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations,” and said gold could “unlock more upside” if the truce stretches on. Reuters
Gold was holding close to its highest level in a month on Thursday, having recovered some ground lost during March’s pullback. Investors have been on edge, with concerns that conflict-driven spikes in oil could extend the period of elevated borrowing costs. According to David Meger, who heads metals trading at High Ridge Futures, signs of easing between the U.S. and Iran would increase the odds of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and could provide a boost for the entire precious-metals space.
On CME FedWatch, traders are pricing in just a 27% probability for a quarter-point cut in December—a sharp pullback from the two cuts anticipated before the war. For reference, a basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point, making 25 basis points equal to a 0.25% shift.
Elsewhere in the precious metals space, spot silver picked up 0.7% to $78.97 an ounce. Platinum stuck close to $2,085.70, little changed. Palladium slipped 0.1%, landing at $1,548.82.
The spot market lagged behind the action in futures. With Akshaya Tritiya on the horizon, buyers in India kept to the sidelines; domestic gold hovered near 153,200 rupees per 10 grams, just off this week’s one-month peak. Bernard Sin at MKS PAMP noted Chinese premiums faded to $3 an ounce, reflecting sluggish demand, and flagged central-bank buying as the market’s main prop right now.
India’s gold and silver import pipeline is starting to jam up. Banks have paused new orders as they wait for a fresh government authorization, with over 5 tons of gold and 8 tons of silver now sitting idle at customs. Surendra Mehta from the India Bullion and Jewellers Association warned that without quick clarity on imports, the risk of shortages and steeper local premiums looms as the festival period passes.
The risks haven’t gone away. Andrew Chorlton, chief investment officer for public fixed income at M&G, called markets “somewhat complacent” with the Strait of Hormuz still mostly shut. If weekend diplomacy falls through, oil prices could spike again, stoking inflation worries and keeping gold under pressure—even with some investors seeking safety there. Reuters
Bullion sits in a tug-of-war right now—on one side, appetite for safe-haven assets has cooled, on the other, a weaker dollar is making gold more attractive for those buying in other currencies. On Friday, the softer greenback edged out the fading protection play.
