New York, March 2, 2026, 12:38 ET — Regular session
- Gold held its ground after an initial jump, with traders assessing the potential reach of the Middle East conflict.
- Oil’s up, and so is the dollar—leaving bullion’s classic safe-haven script looking less clear.
- Attention shifts to U.S. payrolls numbers, with markets also watching for new cues out of the region.
Gold barely budged on Monday, following an early surge fueled by mounting worries that the Middle East conflict could escalate after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Investors flocked to safe-haven assets. Spot gold hovered at $5,284.14 an ounce at 11:11 a.m. ET, down from its session peak of $5,418.50. U.S. gold futures ticked up 1% to $5,299.50. “That uncertainty is more than likely to support prices,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Bullion stayed below January’s $5,594.82 all-time high, still showing a nearly 23% gain for 2026. Reuters
Crude prices surged—U.S. oil tacked on 6.86%, Brent soared 8.07%. At the same time, stock indexes dropped and the dollar pushed sharply higher, pressuring gold even as risk appetite faded. Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury reached 4.038%, and the dollar index was on track for its largest one-day gain since late January. “For the most part there’s a little bit of a knee-jerk reaction to take a little bit of risk off the table,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. Reuters
With energy traffic through the Strait of Hormuz looking shaky, investors are trying to gauge just how long the disruption might last—and what that means for inflation and rates. Brent crude surged nearly 10% to around $79. Still, Commerzbank’s Joerg Kraemer described the move as “relatively moderate,” considering how vital the Strait is for oil supply worldwide. Barclays flagged a risk that markets are underestimating what happens if containment breaks down, hinting at potential big moves in gold and other hedges. Reuters
Some metals desks are still bracing for choppy, two-way flows. “Gold is likely to be in higher demand than usual when markets open on Monday,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, who leads commodity strategy, said he wouldn’t be shocked if gold clocks a new record high. Others pointed out a stronger U.S. dollar might quickly take the air out of any rally. Reuters
Still, the rally faces pushback. If the oil shock pushes investors to bet on fewer Federal Reserve cuts, a firmer dollar and rising real yields could drag on bullion—especially with fragile risk appetite driven by geopolitics.
Physical gold is feeling the squeeze from disrupted logistics. According to traders, gold shipments through Dubai—key for routes into Switzerland, Hong Kong, and India—are set to slow as flight cancellations stack up. Spot gold finished Friday 1.7% higher at $5,277 per ounce. Monday’s price edged up, but gains faded after an early pop. Still, “the major locations — China, India, New York, London and Zurich — are still okay,” a precious metals trader noted. Reuters
Silver tumbled sharply, a reminder of how fast money shifts around the metals when volatility flares up. Gold might draw safe-haven buyers, yet it often gets unloaded too—whether to cover margin calls or take profits during swings.
All eyes now turn to the U.S. jobs numbers, a report with the power to jolt rate bets without warning. February’s Employment Situation lands Friday, March 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Traders also have to watch for any flare-up in the conflict—or signs that energy shipping lanes could be at risk. bls.gov
