Gold Watch: $4,500 Level in Focus for Next Move

London, May 23, 2026, 10:19 BST

Gold held close to $4,500 an ounce heading into the weekend, logging a second week of losses. Oil-fueled inflation concerns and rising Federal Reserve rate-hike bets offset some safe-haven demand for bullion. StoneX’s Rhona O’Connell said investors are “fixed upon Hormuz,” tying risks around the Strait of Hormuz to supply chain fears, inflation and chances for higher rates. Reuters

Spot trading was shut on Saturday. Kitco’s New York spot screen put gold at $4,508.50 bid and $4,510.50 ask at 5 p.m. Friday, a 0.74% drop over the session. Silver lost 1.52%, platinum dropped 2.49%, palladium fell 2.98%.

Why this matters now: gold is stuck between two trades. Geopolitics pushes demand, but gold doesn’t pay interest. When bond yields climb, the appeal of holding gold falls.

Fed outlook shifted again Friday as Nomura scrapped its call for U.S. rate cuts this year. The firm blamed sticky inflation and risks tied to war with Iran. Futures showed markets putting the odds of at least one 25-basis-point Fed hike by year-end at about 58%. A basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Gold didn’t see a straight drop last week. Kitco said spot gold started near $4,539, jumped to $4,588.64, dropped to $4,453, then finished at $4,508.25. Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex said gold “has yet to prove itself on the upside,” pointing to $4,600 as resistance. Phoenix Futures’ Kevin Grady put it plainly: “Every rally seems to be sold.” Kitco

Physical demand gave some support, but not enough. Indian dealers were discounting gold by as much as $78 an ounce to official prices. In China, premiums narrowed to $10-$20 over global benchmarks. Bernard Sin at MKS PAMP said “Fed rate-hike anxiety” and a stronger dollar were capping Chinese demand. Reuters

Gold and precious-metals funds are still pulling in cash. LSEG Lipper said these commodity funds took in $2.34 billion in the week to May 20. That came as global equity funds saw their first outflow in nine weeks. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.201%, its highest level since 2007.

The risk is two-sided. If the Middle East situation cools or oil prices fall, inflation worries could fade and lift some pressure off gold. But a higher U.S. inflation reading might spark more rate-hike trades and send bullion down. Naeem Aslam at Zaye Capital Markets said bond market stress is growing, but “the storm hasn’t hit yet.” TD Securities’ commodity team warned gold could test near $4,350 if yields keep up the pressure. Kitco

Markets kick off this week with light volume. The NYSE is shut for Memorial Day on Monday, May 25, while the London Stock Exchange also closes for Spring Bank Holiday. CME Group posts revised trading hours for the U.S. holiday.

After that, inflation comes back into focus. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release the next Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — or PCE, which tracks the prices U.S. consumers pay — on May 28. The Federal Reserve targets annual inflation through the PCE metric.

Little chance for markets to relax this week with consumer confidence, a second look at first-quarter U.S. GDP, jobless claims, durable-goods orders and new-home sales all set for release in a holiday-shortened stretch. Each number could move things more than normal, with liquidity likely thin coming off the long weekend.

The market is watching $4,500. Above that level, bulls call this a consolidation. Drop below, and the tape shifts to rate-yield trading. Trading Economics’ benchmark CFD has gold off 3.86% in the past month but still up 34.51% from a year ago. That’s a pullback, not a breakdown.

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