NEW YORK, July 13, 2026, 14:06 (EDT)
Gold slipped back under $4,000 an ounce Monday, losing 3.09% to $3,992.20 as tracked by Kitco’s live bid. The drop came with oil climbing above $80 after new U.S.-Iran clashes, and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller flagged the chance of a rate hike if inflation prints hot again. Brent crude gained over 5%.
This pairing stands out. Gold usually gets a boost in times of conflict as investors look for safe assets. But now, markets see the Gulf escalation as an inflation risk. Oil is up, so transport and production costs rise, rate expectations climb, and the dollar gets stronger. That makes gold more expensive to hold since it pays no interest. U.S. two-year and 10-year Treasury yields went up with crude.
Waller said core personal consumption expenditures inflation, excluding food and energy, climbed from 3% in December to 3.4% in May. Almost 70% of core-services categories saw inflation above 3% for both three- and 12-month periods, according to Waller. He said another hot inflation report could push the Fed to “tightening monetary policy in the near term.” Rate futures priced the odds of a July hike as high as 45%, up from 35% earlier Monday. Federal Reserve
The cross-asset action signals how fast traders have turned this conflict into a rates story.
| Market signal | Reported level | Monday move | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | $80.07 a barrel | Up 5.34% | Supply and inflation concerns |
| Spot gold | $3,992.20 an ounce | Down 3.09% | Rate worries beat haven buying |
| Two-year Treasury yield | 4.248% | Up 0.04 point | Traders see higher Fed odds in the near term |
| July Fed hike probability | Peaked at 45% | Was 35% before | Waller’s comments put July in play |
Each snapshot came from a different time on Monday.
Gold slid $128, or 3.1%, from Friday’s $4,120.67 close to the most recent Kitco bid. That’s a drop of about $210, or 5%, from its high last week of $4,202.67. The move below $4,000 just pushed losses for an already weak week—there was no obvious haven buying after the weekend attacks.
Gold-related U.S. stocks mostly dropped together. By 1:49 p.m. EDT, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) and shares of Newmont NYSE:NEM, Barrick Mining NYSE:B, and Agnico Eagle Mines NYSE:AEM slid between 2.47% and 2.83%. That tight 0.36-point spread suggests the entire gold group is getting hit, rather than the market reacting to any specific issues with a miner’s costs or business.
| Security | Price at latest cited trade | Day move |
|---|---|---|
| SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) | $366.53 | down 2.78% |
| Newmont NYSE:NEM | $92.90 | fell 2.51% |
| Barrick Mining NYSE:B | $35.78 | off 2.47% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines NYSE:AEM | $142.72 | slipped 2.83% |
Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com, said the oil move and talk of tighter policy is “bad news for zero-yielding assets like gold.” He said gold could be pushed toward $3,800 at first and might see $3,500 later. Both levels would mean more selling—about 4.8% and 12.3% down from where Kitco last quoted. Reuters
The physical oil market could decide if the bearish trend holds up. Before fighting started, about 20% of the world’s daily oil and LNG passed through the Strait of Hormuz. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said tanker traffic into the area is still a key factor. If fewer tankers arrive, output could get squeezed, and that could keep the risk premium in place.
Positioning didn’t help much. Kitco’s Friday survey said 38% of 13 Wall Street analysts were bullish on gold, 23% bearish, and 38% neutral. Of 282 retail investors, 42% saw higher prices, while 38% expected a drop. Adam Button at investingLive had warned, “Risks are to the upside for oil, so probably to the downside for gold.” Kitco
Markets get June consumer-price numbers and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first congressional testimony on monetary policy Tuesday, with producer prices out Wednesday. Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said these events should give “much clearer direction for markets.” If core inflation comes in soft, the connection between the oil rally and higher rates could fade. Another strong inflation print would keep that link intact. Reuters
But the trade could turn fast. If Hormuz shipping recovers or oil drops, bond yields and the dollar may fall, and gold could regain favor as a hedge. Waller also said inflation could still drop without more tightening. On the flip side, if oil holds high and broad price pressures persist, the Fed might hike rates as financial conditions tighten.
Investors are watching a clear pattern: oil rises, two-year yields climb, gold falls. Big miners are trading close to bullion. As long as this holds, gold keeps acting like a rate play, losing ground as rate expectations rise. The next test is Tuesday’s data—whether gold staying under $4,000 sticks, or if it’s just a quick shakeout before the inflation numbers hit.
