Greatland Resources (ASX:GGP) Stock Jumps on Havieron Feasibility Study: 2025 Results, 2026 Outlook and Analyst Targets

1 December 2025

Greatland Resources Limited (ASX:GGP, AIM:GGP) shares are surging today after the company published the long‑awaited Feasibility Study (FS) for its flagship Havieron gold‑copper project in Western Australia. Intraday, the stock has traded around A$8.3–A$8.4 on the ASX, up roughly 10–11% on the session and near the upper end of its 52‑week range of A$4.91–A$9.23. ^[1]

The study confirms Havieron as a long‑life, low‑cost underground mine integrated with Greatland’s existing Telfer operation, and it lands on top of a year in which the company has swung to strong profitability and more than tripled its market value. ^[2]

Today’s catalyst: Havieron Feasibility Study finally lands

Greatland released the Havieron Feasibility Study to the market on 1 December 2025, with a detailed summary carried by Proactive Investors and other outlets. ^[3] The key points:

Scale and location
- 100% owned underground gold‑copper project, ~45km east of the Telfer gold‑copper mine in WA’s Paterson Province. ^[4]
- Ore is planned to be processed through Telfer’s existing 20Mtpa processing plant, avoiding the need to build a standalone mill. ^[5]
Production profile (Standalone case) ^[6]
- Average annual production target: ~266,000 ounces of gold and 9,600 tonnes of copper.
- Initial mine life: 17 years, with nine years of steady‑state production.
- Updated Ore Reserve: 38.5Mt at 2.63 g/t Au and 0.33% Cu, containing 3.3Moz of gold and 128kt of copper – a 55% increase in tonnage and 36% more contained metal vs previous reserve.
Costs and economics ^[7]
- All‑in sustaining cost (AISC): about A$1,610 per ounce of gold.
- Pre‑production capex: A$1.065 billion (including contingencies).
- Additional expansion capex: ~A$673 million, largely expected to be funded from Havieron cash flow.
- At a long‑term gold price of A$4,500/oz, the FS shows:
  - Pre‑tax NPV5% ~A$4.2 billion and post‑tax NPV5% ~A$2.9 billion.
  - Post‑tax IRR 22.5%.
  - Average annual post‑tax free cash flow around A$550 million at steady state.
- At spot‑like gold prices (~A$6,250/oz), the post‑tax IRR rises to 31.5%, with post‑tax NPV5% ~A$5.4 billion.
Integration with Telfer – the “Hub” option
The published economics are based on a conservative “Havieron Standalone” scenario that assumes minimal contribution from Telfer beyond processing infrastructure. Greatland also outlined a “Telfer Hub” case in which Telfer ore continues to run alongside Havieron feed at the full 20Mtpa capacity, further lowering unit costs through shared fixed costs and potentially extending both mine lives. ^[8]
Timeline and approvals
Greatland aims to secure key environmental approvals in FY26 and then take a final investment decision (FID), targeting first gold from Havieron roughly 2½ years after FID – late this decade – with the Telfer plant acting as the processing backbone. ^[9]

Management describes Havieron as a “world‑class” orebody and one of Australia’s largest underground reserves, sitting behind only Newmont’s Cadia and Tanami operations by underground reserve size. ^[10]

Share price reaction: a big move capping a huge year

The FS has been the market’s main missing piece, so investors were always likely to react strongly once numbers hit the tape. On 1 December:

Investing.com shows Greatland trading around A$8.34, up sharply from the previous close of A$7.55, within a daily range of A$7.99–A$8.48. ^[11]
The Motley Fool’s Australian site reports the stock up about 11% to A$8.41 in intraday trade as the FS was digested. ^[12]

Zoom out, and the move is part of a much bigger rerating:

Kalkine notes a 52‑week range of A$4.91–A$9.23, with the high set on 17 October 2025. ^[13]
An Investing.com transcript of Greatland’s Q4 2025 results highlights a year‑to‑date return of about 218% and a London price near its 52‑week high of 420p. ^[14]
In the UK, The Motley Fool pointed out as early as May that the GGP share price had more than doubled in the first four months of 2025, framing Greatland as a potential breakout stock. ^[15]

Today’s jump is therefore less a bolt from the blue and more a fresh leg higher in a rerating driven by:

The Telfer acquisition bedding down.
A decisive swing to profitability.
Visibility on Havieron’s development path.

From Greatland Gold to Greatland Resources: a new structure for a new scale

In 2024, Greatland secured 100% ownership of both the Telfer mine and the Havieron project from Newmont, transforming itself from a junior explorer into an integrated producer‑developer. ^[16]

During 2025 the company completed a significant corporate reorganisation:

A new Australian‑incorporated parent, Greatland Resources Limited, was created to sit above the original UK‑listed Greatland Gold plc. Shareholders approved the change via a scheme of arrangement, which became effective on 20 June 2025. ^[17]
The new parent is now dual‑listed on the ASX and London’s AIM (both under the ticker GGP), aligning the corporate structure with an asset base and management team that are now entirely Australian. ^[18]

The rebrand from “Gold” to “Resources” is deliberate: management has repeatedly emphasised the growing importance of copper alongside gold in the growth story, particularly as global electrification, AI data centres and energy transition projects lift copper demand. ^[19]

Operations: Telfer cash machine, Havieron growth engine

Telfer mine – cash flow today

Telfer is one of Australia’s largest gold‑copper complexes, with open‑pit and underground operations feeding a 20Mtpa processing plant. ^[20]

Some key operational datapoints since Greatland took control:

In the March 2025 quarter, Telfer produced 90,172 ounces of gold and 3,511 tonnes of copper, generating A$458 million in net revenue at an AISC of about A$2,126/oz. ^[21]
Across FY25 (the year to 30 June 2025), Greatland reported gold production of about 198,000 ounces at an AISC around A$1,849/oz, generating more than A$600 million of cash in seven months of ownership, with cash on hand of ~A$575 million by year‑end. ^[22]

Telfer is not just a cash cow; it is also a strategic asset for Havieron because it provides processing capacity, existing workforce, power and infrastructure — dramatically reducing the capital intensity of the new mine.

Q1 FY26 – early signs of the next leg

The September quarter (Q1 FY26) continued the theme of strong output and rising margins:

Production: 80,890 ounces of gold and 3,366 tonnes of copper.
Sales: 82,199oz gold and 3,277t copper.
Net revenue: A$476 million for the quarter.
AISC: A$2,155/oz.
Operating cash flow: A$284 million, lifting the cash balance to A$750 million by 30 September 2025.
The company remained debt‑free at quarter‑end. ^[23]

FY26 guidance, reaffirmed in recent commentary, calls for 260,000–310,000 ounces of gold at an AISC of A$2,400–A$2,800/oz, with ~A$230–260 million of capital expenditure focused on Telfer growth and early Havieron works. ^[24]

Financial performance: FY25 profit turnaround

After several years in development mode, Greatland’s FY25 numbers look like those of a mature mid‑tier miner:

Revenue from customers: A$961.3 million, mainly from 180,570oz of gold and 7,445t of copper.
Average realised prices: A$4,785/oz gold, A$12,923/t copper.
Net profit after tax: A$337.26 million, versus a A$28.56 million loss in FY24 – a swing of 1,281% year‑on‑year.
Operating cash flow: A$601.1 million.
EBITDA margin: 48.8%, up from 36.5% in FY24.
Net tangible assets per share: A$3.09 (up from just A$0.03). ^[25]

The 2025 Annual Report and subsequent conference presentation reinforced this picture, summarising FY25 as nearly 200,000oz of gold at AISC A$1,849/oz, ~A$1 billion in revenue and EBITDA of about A$527 million (a 55% margin), with acquisition costs for Telfer effectively paid back in seven months. ^[26]

Balance sheet and funding: can Greatland pay for Havieron?

Havieron’s A$1.065 billion pre‑production capex is chunky, but Greatland has been building a funding war chest:

As of 30 September 2025, cash stood at A$750 million, with no debt on the balance sheet. ^[27]
Earlier in 2025, the company executed a A$100 million working‑capital facility (A$75m revolver plus A$25m contingent instruments) and received a non‑binding letter of support for up to A$775m of project finance from a bank syndicate including ANZ, HSBC and ING. ^[28]
The Feasibility Study update now points to A$500 million of committed corporate debt facilities from a Tier‑1 bank syndicate (ANZ, HSBC, ING, NAB and Westpac), alongside Telfer’s ongoing cash flow, with management stating that Havieron’s development is expected to be fully funded from these sources. ^[29]

In short: Greatland appears to have both the cash and banking relationships to build Havieron without an immediate, dilutive equity raise, although future capital needs will depend on metal prices, cost inflation and any expansions beyond the base case.

Governance and corporate milestones in late 2025

On the governance side, Greatland recently concluded its 2025 Annual General Meeting in Perth with all seven resolutions passed by poll, including the re‑election of directors and a change of auditor, signalling solid shareholder support for the new structure and strategy. ^[30]

The company has also:

Raised ~A$50 million at A$6.60 per share via an ASX bookbuild mid‑year, broadening its Australian institutional base. ^[31]
Maintained regular operational updates through quarterly reports and conference appearances, such as the Mining Forum Americas 2025 presentation in Denver, where management outlined plans for 240,000m of drilling at Telfer in FY26 and highlighted the combined resource base of more than 25Moz across Telfer and Havieron. ^[32]

How analysts see Greatland Resources stock

Sell‑side coverage has steadily grown through 2025, and recent data points to broadly positive sentiment:

Consensus targets (Investing.com)
- Eight analysts covering GGP on Investing.com show an average 12‑month price target of about A$9.21, with a high of A$12.00 and a low of A$5.50.
- The consensus rating is “Buy”, with 5 buys, 3 holds and no sells. ^[33]
TradingView forecast
TradingView’s aggregated analyst data shows a similar average target of A$9.41, again with estimates ranging from A$5.50 to A$12.00. ^[34]
Macquarie
An article on The Motley Fool Australia reported that Macquarie recently reiterated an “Outperform” rating with a target price of A$10.50, implying roughly 35% upside at the time of publication in mid‑November. ^[35]
Other broker views (Kalkine)
Kalkine highlighted research from two brokers in October:
- One with an “Outperform” rating and an A$8.20 target.
- Another with a “Buy” and a A$13.20 target, implying up to 73% upside based on October prices. ^[36]
London‑listed line
On the London market (AIM: GGP), MarketBeat tracks an average 12‑month price target of 437.5p from two analysts, about 16% above a recent price of 377p, with a range of 240p–635p. ^[37]

Across both the ASX and AIM, the message is broadly consistent: analysts see modest to substantial further upside, even after the 2025 rally, but expectations are now high and heavily contingent on the execution of Havieron and the continued performance of Telfer.

Key upside drivers from here

For investors trying to understand what could move Greatland next, several themes stand out:

Telfer–Havieron integration plan
Greatland intends to publish a multi‑year, integrated production outlook for Telfer and Havieron in FY27, once drilling and FS outcomes are fully incorporated. This plan will likely set the tone for long‑term output, cost and capex expectations. ^[38]
Resource and reserve growth
- Havieron’s FS mine plan uses only part of the deposit; about 87Mt of additional mineral resources (3.1Moz Au and 130kt Cu) sit outside the production plan, giving scope for later life extensions or expansions. ^[39]
- Underground drilling targeting the Breccia and Link zones, as well as step‑outs at depth, could continue to grow the inventory.
Record drilling at Telfer
Management is planning ~240,000m of drilling in FY26, focused on West Dome open pit, Main Dome underground and new West Dome underground projects, with updated Telfer resources and reserves due in 2026. ^[40]
Gold and copper macro backdrop
Higher‑for‑longer gold prices boost Havieron’s leverage, while copper demand from EVs, grid upgrades and AI data centres enhances the long‑term outlook for the company’s copper credits. ^[41]
Index inclusion and liquidity
As a dual‑listed, profitable mid‑tier with substantial market cap, Greatland is positioning itself for potential inclusion in indices like the ASX 300 or 200 over time, which could attract additional passive flows. ^[42]

The risk side of the ledger

No mining story is risk‑free, and the FS doesn’t magically make the hard bits disappear:

Execution and cost risk
Havieron’s A$1.065 billion pre‑production bill plus A$673 million of expansion capex is a serious engineering and financial project. Cost inflation, contractor constraints, or technical surprises underground could erode returns or require additional capital. ^[43]
Permitting and timing
The plan assumes key environmental approvals in FY26 and steady development thereafter; delays could push back first production and compress the mine’s NPV, particularly if gold prices cool. ^[44]
Commodity price and FX volatility
Greatland’s revenues are heavily exposed to gold, with copper providing useful diversification. A sharp drop in gold prices, or adverse AUD/USD moves, would hit margins just as capex peaks. ^[45]
Mature asset complexity at Telfer
Telfer is an older, complex asset. Operational missteps, geotechnical issues or processing bottlenecks could disrupt cash flow just when the balance sheet is doing the heavy lifting for Havieron. ^[46]
Valuation risk after a 200%+ rally
After more than doubling this year and trading near its one‑year highs, the market is already pricing in a lot of success. An InvestingPro assessment recently suggested shares are trading close to estimated fair value, even before today’s spike, which means positive surprises may now be needed to justify further re‑rating. ^[47]

What today’s news means for Greatland Resources stock

The publication of the Havieron Feasibility Study gives investors something crucial: hard numbers instead of just slides and adjectives.

Those numbers say:

Telfer is already a profitable, cash‑generating backbone.
Havieron, if built to the FS blueprint, could be a multi‑decade, low‑cost, high‑margin underground mine with serious leverage to gold and copper prices.
Greatland has, on paper, enough cash and debt capacity to fund the build without blowing up the balance sheet.

None of that guarantees a straight line higher for the share price, but it does help explain why the stock is jumping today and why brokers, in aggregate, still see upside from current levels.