London, February 4, 2026, 08:45 GMT — Regular session
- GSK shares bounced back from early dips, climbing 1.4% in morning trading following the release of its first 2026 outlook under new CEO Luke Miels
- The drugmaker projected slower sales growth for the year, highlighting vaccines and general medicines as possible weak spots
- Investors are focused on the 2026 plan, looking for clues that GSK can dodge an HIV patent cliff later this decade and maintain momentum in its pipeline
GSK shares recovered on Wednesday following the release of new CEO Luke Miels’ first sales forecast, which showed slower growth for 2026—a key test investors had been eyeing. After an early dip of roughly 1%, the stock climbed 1.4% by 0809 GMT.
The outlook is crucial as it coincides with a leadership transition following years of increased spending to rebuild the pipeline. Investors are watching to see if this surge in research translates into product launches fast enough to sustain earnings.
A timing issue looms: GSK’s leading HIV drugs will start losing patent protection in 2028. That deadline is pressing enough to influence strategy today, not down the line.
GSK reported a 7% rise in 2025 sales at constant exchange rates, reaching 32.67 billion pounds. Specialty Medicines climbed 17%, while vaccines increased 2%. The company forecasts turnover growth of 3% to 5% in 2026. It also expects core operating profit and core earnings per share—both adjusted—to grow between 7% and 9%, maintaining its long-term sales target of over 40 billion pounds by 2031.
“GSK’s 2026 guidance — excluding FX effects — seems cautious and leaves space for potential upgrades,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst John Murphy. Bloomberg.com
Chart watchers have kept a close eye on the stock for months now. Axel Rudolph, senior technical analyst at IG, noted this week that the shares are closing in on the “psychological 2000p region” following a strong rally over the past year. IG
The cautious outlook for 2026 growth isn’t isolated. Merck, in the U.S., also released 2026 guidance this week that missed estimates, warning of the impact from looming patent expirations.
The downside for GSK is straightforward: a weak U.S. vaccines market, slower adoption of newer products, or unexpected policy or pricing hits that tighten margins. The company has warned that vaccines and general medicines sales might be flat or decline this year, which doesn’t leave much margin for error.
Traders are weighing if the 2026 targets signal a shift to slower, steadier growth or just set a low bar for the incoming CEO. The key will be the details — which launches take priority, the timeline, and what might be trimmed if challenges arise.
GSK plans to update investors in a webcast at 11:00 GMT on Wednesday. Miels and his team will likely field questions about vaccines, the HIV development timeline, and the extent to which the company will focus on late-stage projects.
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