New York, January 14, 2026, 07:12 EST — Premarket
U.S. heating oil futures nudged higher in early Wednesday trading, staying close to recent peaks following a strong jump the day before as crude prices climbed again. The contract last changed hands at $2.2488 a gallon, up 1.04 cents, or 0.46%, after closing Tuesday at $2.2384. 1
The contract tracked crude oil, which climbed amid worries that unrest in Iran might trigger a supply shock. “We are in a period of geopolitical instability and potential supply disruption,” said Jorge Montepeque, managing director at Onyx Capital Group. Traders balanced the risk of escalation against signs of easing supply-demand tightness in the U.S. The American Petroleum Institute reported builds in crude and fuels, noting a 4.34 million-barrel increase in distillate stocks, covering diesel and heating oil. 2
Distillates face a tricky balance. Winter demand can surge fast, yet hefty inventory builds often dampen rallies. High refinery output and shifting freight and prices for exports add to the pressure.
More Venezuelan crude is flowing into U.S. ports, adding another layer to the story. The discount of WTI versus Brent has widened as these barrels make their way stateside, shifting what refiners decide to process and produce. “A heavier U.S. crude diet would push more domestic WTI barrels into export markets,” said Dylan White, director of North American crude markets at Wood Mackenzie. 3
Amid the daily market chatter, a few investors remain focused on a weaker 2026 oil outlook. Goldman Sachs stands by its forecast that rising supply will weigh on prices throughout this year, highlighting a surplus in the market. The bank holds its average price estimates at $56 a barrel for Brent and $52 for WTI. 4
Heating oil futures track NY Harbor ULSD, the standard for ultra-low sulfur diesel used in heating and trucking. Each NYMEX contract covers 42,000 gallons, quoted in cents and dollars per gallon. 5
Traders also watch refining margins, known as “crack spreads” — the difference between crude prices and the fuels produced from it — since these influence refinery runs and, ultimately, the supply of distillates.
The risk is clear-cut. Should official figures show another large build in U.S. distillates, heating oil might shed this week’s gains. This would be especially true if Iran-related headlines lose steam or Venezuela’s exports continue to normalize.
The next major trigger comes Wednesday with U.S. government inventory data. The Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report is set for release at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time on that day. 6
