New York, Feb 16, 2026, 12:57 EST — Regular session
- March NY Harbor ULSD futures edged higher, last trading at $2.4043 per gallon, up 1.64 cents.
- Stocks caught a lift from stronger crude, as both Brent and WTI traded up during the session
- Traders eye U.S.-Iran developments, with a postponed U.S. inventory report also in focus this week.
Heating oil futures in the U.S. edged up Monday, tracking gains in crude as traders juggled geopolitical concerns alongside questions about late-winter consumption. The most-active March NY Harbor ULSD contract—still widely known as heating oil—added 1.64 cents to $2.4043 per gallon. Brent climbed 74 cents to $68.49 a barrel, and WTI picked up 76 cents, landing at $63.65. (Barchart.com)
The urgency comes down to this: heating oil is a distillate fuel—drawn from the same barrel that supplies both home heating needs in the U.S. Northeast and diesel for the trucking industry. Crude price swings tied to supply risks? Distillates tend to follow, sometimes even outpacing those moves.
This week’s U.S. inventory schedule shifts thanks to the Presidents’ Day break. The Energy Information Administration now plans to publish its Weekly Petroleum Status Report on Thursday, Feb. 19—pushed back a day from the typical Wednesday slot with the federal holiday shuttering offices Monday. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Oil traded with a muted feel as the market kept an eye on the latest round of U.S.-Iran negotiations in Geneva, set for Tuesday. Holiday-thinned volumes in the U.S., along with Lunar New Year closures across parts of Asia, left activity subdued. “Fears of supply disruption from the U.S.-Iran tensions have helped keep oil prices stable,” said PVM’s Tamas Varga. OPEC+, according to Reuters, is considering a restart of output hikes for April, with the group expected to settle the matter at its March 1 meeting. (Reuters)
Weather’s taking the spotlight for heating oil again. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day forecast covering Feb. 21–25 tips near-to-below normal temperatures along most of the East Coast. Looking a bit further out, its 8–14 day outlook leans toward near-normal for the Northeast and coastal Mid-Atlantic, but points to a stretch of above-normal warmth for much of the central and eastern U.S.—everywhere except that Northeast corner. (Climate Prediction Center)
The setup suggests the market could have a tough time nailing down a straightforward demand narrative. Colder weather on the East Coast can still prop up heating demand, but if the Northeast hits “near normal” temperatures in week two, that’s typically enough to keep panic buying—and wild distillate spreads—in check.
Diesel crack spreads—that key margin separating diesel from crude—stay on traders’ radar as a signal for how much distillate refineries are chasing. When cracks widen, refineries tend to push more crude through. If the spread tightens, that flow can dry up fast.
The supply picture is still all over the place. A hiccup at a refinery, an unexpected outage, or a swing in exports—any of these can tip the distillate market fast, particularly as liquidity dries up and headlines start to move prices.
There’s a straightforward risk here: should the Geneva talks deflate the risk premium fast, or if weather ends up milder than projected where heating demand usually spikes, heating oil futures might lose ground even if crude prices stay steady. Any steps by OPEC+ to ramp up supply would only pile on.
Next up: calendar events. Traders have their eyes on Tuesday’s Geneva talks, while the EIA inventory report—pushed back to Feb. 19—lands Thursday, both likely to set the tone for the rest of the week.
